bryan 🧉

New customer acquisition on Meta is getting cheaper, contrary to popular opinion. When looking at average nCAC across all 1,000+ ad accounts tracked by Northbeam, we can clearly see that costs dropped by as much as 33% in Q3 year over year. This is tracking billions in ad spend, filtered for accounts that only appear in both quarters, for a fair comparison. How is this possible? A few hypotheses: 1. Public opinion (especially on this platform) is quick to blame Meta. Anecdotal evidence is NOT indicative of an actual trend - you must bring data. This is kind of our whole thing at @northbeam. 2. Meta has made significant algorithmic changes this year, as we've seen in past charts shared on this channel. It seems like these changes are working. Or at least, people are adapting. 3. I do not expect this drop to continue forever. Although we have eschewed all seasonal trends here, CACs will increase during BFCM and stay elevated through Christmas. 4. Targeting new customers has gotten easier. Northbeam Apex and Meta's incremental attribution have improved new customer acquisition performance across our advertisers. 5. So it's not just prices - it's HOW we are targeting new customers. Because we're better at targeting, it's getting cheaper over time. 6. These attribution models only improve with time. Therefore, the downward trend seen below. 7. The huge spike is Amazon Prime Day + Father's Day + 4th of July, which were awkwardly placed near each other this year. 8. Meta remains undefeated. We had some growing pains there, but this chart clearly shows that on average, new customer acquisition is improving, at least across Northbeam advertisers. 9. Everyone is listening to people like @9operators when they hammer new customer acquisition as a key priority for your business, and therefore folks are getting better at it. 10. Something happened this summer. Some kind of cultural vibe shift mixed with macro changes. Folks are just... happier? And happier people buy more stuff. You probably feel it too. 11. Macroeconomic challenges around gas prices, shipping disruptions, and exchange rates have culled a generation of DTC businesses, which has decreased competition somewhat. Lots of businesses folding this year. 12. Meta is actually listening to us and building a platform that permits us to efficiently and cheaply target new customer acquisition. Granted, they are still pushing AI that will make many of the people reading this message redundant. 13. The loudest folks online are the ones having problems with Meta Ads. I know many killers on here who don't ever speak to their own performance and are doing great right now. As a wise man once said: "The realest ecomm operators move in silence like the 'g' in lasagna." What are you seeing in your data? All charts and analysis by @BryanBumgardner 🛰️

we're at a pivotal point in the evolution of the marketing profession.

Me and @BryanBumgardner are hosting a Media Buyer dinner in NYC on Nov 4th. Great brands. Thoughtful conversations. Free to attend, but you need to apply here: luma.com/northbeam-o5iv

Blended ROAS on Meta is peaking. At @northbeam we track >$3 billion in ad spend a year. This is the average weekly blended ROAS (one day clicks only) that we see across the >1,000 ad accounts we support. Meta blended ROAS is skyrocketing right now. And it all started this summer. (I know you want new customers only. That's coming in a later chart.) It's important to evaluate blended because we know Meta's ad algorithm is going to prioritize any sale it can get. Without Northbeam Apex, targeting exclusively new customers is difficult. What's interesting is that even though ads are getting more expensive on Meta, and anecdotal performance suggests performance is down, raw ROAS has improved. It stayed relatively flat through summer 2026. But similar to what we've seen in other charts, ROAS began to increase at that magic "inflection point" in late June 2026. Are you seeing similar results in your data? Reporting and charts by @BryanBumgardner 🛰️

Blended ROAS on Meta is peaking. At @northbeam we track >$3 billion in ad spend a year. This is the average weekly blended ROAS (one day clicks only) that we see across the >1,000 ad accounts we support. Meta blended ROAS is skyrocketing right now. And it all started this summer. (I know you want new customers only. That's coming in a later chart.) It's important to evaluate blended because we know Meta's ad algorithm is going to prioritize any sale it can get. Without Northbeam Apex, targeting exclusively new customers is difficult. What's interesting is that even though ads are getting more expensive on Meta, and anecdotal performance suggests performance is down, raw ROAS has improved. It stayed relatively flat through summer 2026. But similar to what we've seen in other charts, ROAS began to increase at that magic "inflection point" in late June 2026. Are you seeing similar results in your data? Reporting and charts by @BryanBumgardner 🛰️

Meta Ads CPMs are skyrocketing. This is the most expensive CPMs on Meta have been during "normal" selling periods in the last ~18 months. We track billions in ad spend across thousands of advertisers. This is the trend we're seeing in our data. On average across all our advertisers, CPMs are going up in 2026. There was a slight increase through Q1 2025, then CPMs plateaued for the rest of the year. Then at the start of 2026, CPMs began to rise. They peaked and stabilized all summer, but now are rising again. We are at +25% increase in CPMs compared to the same time last year. The Black Friday Cyber Monday CPM spike we saw in 2025 didn't start until November. This year we're seeing this spike happen in September. While CPMs aren't a core metric, they are a basic measure for how far your dollar goes on Meta. High CPMs can eat away at the efficiency in your account. But what is causing this increase? Our data cannot identify a root cause, we can only demonstrate that something is happening. Meta made a ton of changes in the last year. The algorithm is just different now. For example, Meta rolled out changes to click through attribution in March 2026 - and CPMs rose to new normals immediately following. It's correlation, not causation. So what are advertisers supposed to do? This much is clear: What qualifies as "normal" performance on Meta is changing Advertisers must adjust their expectations, arithmetic, and strategies to this new normal. The future is here and now. It will destroy advertisers who cannot adapt. Charts and analysis by @bryanbumgardner 🛰️