The Caliber Man retweeted
Too much fear out there.
Bitcoin looks fantastic on the HTF and the LTF.
Objectively, things are great.
I still think we get a fair bit higher before a meaningful pullback.
Something like pictured.
To me, this is just LTF grinding PA within a bull flag.
It could resolve in any number of ways to the upside, and I think we're likely to get it over the next 7 days.
If you positioned at the lows, then you should literally not care one bit about this.
But if you didn't, these are your chances to get positioned.
Don't F it up twice and then chase up towards $100k.
The Caliber Man retweeted
Hearing screaming and shouting about a "black Monday"....
Send it to 90k.
bitcoin:native
I do think a LTF reversal is imminent- wouldn't mind a scenario like this in which $BTC holds a higher low while $ETH makes a marginally lower low on this current drive down before a reversal on both.
$ETH showing more weakness here just as we expected and BTC with a much clearer path to new local highs into 90k+ vs $ETH which I think may struggle around the $2600-$2800 region.
For now, let's see if we can get that reversal!
The Caliber Man retweeted
I have been talking about this for a few weeks now.
There is no conviction in this market.
We get the slightest of overall pullbacks, not even 10% yet, and the timeline is in absolute shambles.
Some of the FUD posts I've seen are utterly insane.
Guys, this ALWAYS happens.
It happens at every single bottom that has ever occurred in history.
Yet, many are going to make the same mistake again.
This is the bottom line.
1. Bitcoin has broken bearish structure and reclaimed all the SMA/EMA's that are important
2. Every time this happens, Bitcoin will eventually retest those SMA/EMA's.
3. Bitcoin has not even retested one of them yet
And already, the timeline is in shambles.
There has never been a period in Bitcoins history where it has broken bearish structure, and reclaimed all these EMA/SMA's...
And made new lows.
What we are very likely seeing here, is a pull back in a new bull market, that will provide the second best entries after the bottom.
But, instead of people utilising these pull backs to get positioned, they just get scared.
I will acknowledge that the FUD campaign is wild out there... and I understand that if you pay attention to it, it can seem very bad.
But you need to drown that out and pay attention to the chart.
There are no guarantees in this game, but we must always lean on the data.
The data says this is very normal and very healthy.
It also says that any positions anyone has taken during times like this, have always been very beneficial in the long run.
Don't get shaken out.
Just incase you forget...
Whenever Bitcoin first decides to put in a decent pullback...
It will be, extremely likely, a bear trap.
The bears will get very loud, in fact, they are already getting louder on a very small drop.
But when we get a decent one, they will be back out calling for new lows.
This is your reminder that based on all the historical data we have, new lows aren't coming, and to ignore them.
Any decent dip we get here, is as likely as you can get, a great buying opportunity.
In Bitcoins entire history, any time it has closed above the:
- 365D SMA
- 1w 50SMA
It has marked the start of Bitcoins major price runs, with pullbacks being short lived.
If you are sidelined, and want to get exposure, your best chance is on these dips.
But the majority wont buy them, again, because the bears will come out in full force and everyone will be too scared.
Don't fall for it.
The Caliber Man retweeted
This chart could not be more bullish.
Then, at the same time, you have a lot of FUD on timeline.
It does not make rational sense.
But that is how the market works and it is the main reason why most people lose.
They simply do not understand structure and how to view things objectively.
TOTAL3 is quite literally putting in a very bullish pullback into the bearish break of trend, underneath every single EMA/SMA that matters.
But no one seems to be able to see this?
As I said before, this is not a problem with the structure of the market.
It is a problem with how people trade.
Most people are very bearish at the bottom, when they should be allocating. Then, only flip very bullish after large prices move,s which they then buy the top.
Price then retraces, as it should, and they panic and FUD post and sell because they are in a loss and get scared.
Then, price rallys again because it was actually just a very normal pullback, and they ape back in.
Only to repeat the same pattern forever.
Don't let that be you.
More FUD here.
Seeing it all over.
I genuinely fjnd it strange - because Majors are literally just pulling back off of the first impulse from the bottom.
The problem isnt the pull back itself, it’s that people buy the top.
Then they naturally pull back, top buyers go underwater, and you get this fear.
If you actually buy the lows you will never sweat over a pullback.
The whole time you only buy into pumps, you will probably sell the next dump.
And then continue to repeat that over and over.
This fear is very irrational and it’s not driven by the market structure.
It’s driven by terrible trading.
The Caliber Man retweeted
It happened again.
The original post was pretty much the top for GOLD.
During that time, the metals guys were absolutely euphoric, grave dancing on Bitcoin.
The Bitcoiners were also being doomers saying that when GOLD drops, Bitcoin will go with it.
Fear was everywhere, as usual.
But back then, when I analysed the situation, it was very clear to me that things were just playing out like they always have with GOLD/BTC rotation.
This setup here, back in Jan/feb last year, was already showing us how much different of an overall cycle position we were compared to what everyone thought.
But this analysis was getting laughed at.
Now, 9 months on, we can see it played out exactly like it always has, and exactly how I expected it to.
As GOLD topped, Bitcoin bottomed.
Then, GOLD has gone on to drop/consolidate...
And Bitcoin has gone on to bottom/reverse.
BTC/GOLD literally bottomed a week after my original post.
Which was the time metals guys were euphoric and crypto was in a dark depression.
After every major GOLD run and subsequent top, Bitcoin has entered its most explosive phase of its cycle.
Every single time.
This is simply another large piece of data that now confirms we did not see a full cycle high.
That is yet to come.
I really don't understand it.
How people can say that GOLD does not rotate into Bitcoin?
It couldn't be clearer when you look at all the relevant charts side by side.
At absolute minimum, if you don't want to say rotate, you have to accept that they take turns.
Right now have euphoric metals maxis parroting nonsense about how when GOLD drops it will take Bitcoin with it and a load of other rubbish.
Truly wild and retarded.
What we have here are the respective charts for:
- BTC/GOLD
- BITCOIN
- GOLD
Every cycle BTC/GOLD and BITCOIN consolidate/chop as GOLD has its main rally.
This was the case in both 2016 and 2021.
Then, once and only once GOLD had topped, did BTC/GOLD and BITCOIN start its own parabolic run.
This is so obvious and so easy to see that even the most beginner of investors can understand this.
All we have right now is grave dancing metal heads and depressed crypto holders all parrotting absolute drivel, either clouded by euphoria or fear.
The amount of logic and reason on the timeline is reaching an all time low.
I cannot tell you if GOLD is done yet or not...
But I can tell you that once it is, Bitcoin will not be following it down.
People out there right now are also trying to mock this kind of data...
But how can one look at this and try to mock it?
This is simply an objective representation of the important info we need to see.
Ignore it and laugh at it at your own peril.
The Caliber Man retweeted
This is the major difference.
It does show me just how much of a widely misunderstood view this is, when many analysts don’t seem to grasp it.
A full cycle bear is long and deep. It resets the whole market, across the board. It is a Bitcoin dominated drop and a Bitcoin dominated recovery.
Thus, it takes years to reach new highs after, and altcoins don’t have a prayer during that time - meaning positioning in them is folly.
A mid cycle bear is the total opposite. It does not reset the whole market, in fact, it primes it. It is not a bitcoin dominated drop, and during the bear, ETH/BTC goes into an uptrend and OTHERS.D bottoms.
Thus, it does not take years to reach new highs, it takes months. And it is an ETH and altcoin dominated run afterwards(we are already seeing this).
It has drastic effects on overall market position and how one actually positions into it.
If you do not understand the way in which the market is correction, you will…
1. Not understand why the bottom is forming higher up then before, leaving you sidelined
2. Not understand that we are now in an altcoin dominated market, and again, leaving you with no exposure
It makes incredible amounts of difference… it’s not just “well price went down and now it’s going up again which is a bear market”.
It’s like night and day difference between the overall market position of a full cycle bear, and a mid cycle one.
And how you position for it is also extremely different.
Replying to @Sykodelic_
I'm not really understanding the point of this distinction. The price went down for more than nine months. Now you think price will go up again. How is that any different from calling what has happened a bear market and this the beginning of a new bull market? Functionally nothing at all. I genuinely don't get why it needs a special name like "mid cycle correction" when price still spent 9+ months downtrending regardless.
The Caliber Man retweeted
Both tokenomics proposals have passed.
228,000,000 CRO has been burned from the community pool, bringing the total to 428,000,000 CRO.
100% of Ult and Cronos Launch revenue will now buy CRO on the open market and burn it monthly, with every transaction hash published.
Staking rewards are unchanged, funded by the Strategic Reserve.
Thank you to everyone who voted.
Proposal 36: mintscan.io/crypto-org/propo…
Proposal 37: mintscan.io/crypto-org/propo…
The Caliber Man retweeted
Just like a….
Wait for it…
Mid cycle correction?
Bob laughed this off months ago and said the business cycle was “the biggest cope”
This has all been in the works for ages, and so many 4 year cycle gurus, that I was told can’t be wrong… completely missed it.
Now, they’re all starting to see that we could surprise to the upside.
It’s not a surprise guys.
My work was laughed at for months on end, and now, months after the bottom…
4 year Cycle gurus are catching on like it’s something unexpected.
With the Sept monthly close, the remaining confirming factors for a new Bitcoin Cycle are now in.
The slightly early Cycle Low (44 months vs 47), and lack of deeper move in June/July sets up a possibility of a Cycle that could well (upside) surprise. Versus say the diminishing return idea.
But, don't forget that new Cycles (in all assets) generally have one major shakeout, the type to give bears hope, one more time.
The Caliber Man retweeted
It does not get anymore bullish.
There are already people talking about selling their altcoins after a small pump.
Bros...
You need to understand.
Altcoins have literally only just moved off of the absolute floor...
After 5 years.
OTHERS.D has only just broken above a year long bottoming base.
OTHERS has been ranging since the 2021 top.
Both MACD and RSI are coiling upwards, nowhere even close to any level of overbought.
Most large cap alts are 5-8x away from their ATHs.
This has not even started yet.
We have entered the most bullish phase for altcoins since 2020.
This kind of phase has only happened twice in history before.
Do not sell your altcoins and try to swing trade them, after holding for 5 years.
Much much higher is coming.
The Caliber Man retweeted
Clean as a whistle.
1W 50SMA break
1D 365SMA break
Bull market back on.
At that point $90k was the next logical target based on accumulation ranges and HTF resistance levels.
$87,300 was tagged... but I don't think this move is done yet.
$90k - $100k before the first major correction.
At that point we have the chance to retest some of these SMA's, but we will see how things are at the time.
We haven't seen too much FOMO yet.
I think that comes on the next push, which will be the final push of this impulse.
$90k is the next target.
Historically, once the 50SMA is reclaimed from HTF oversold conditions, Bitcoin puts in a powerful move higher.
It has done this every single time, without fail.
If we follow the same pattern, I would expect a swift move higher into $90k.
This will be the move that the sidelinooorsss cave to the FOMO after missing the bottom, and chase the pumps into strong resistance.
Then, that is when we likely get a very sharp drop, which rekts them all again.
it's hard to expect anything else when have had this kind of PA confirm.
We could drop here, anything is possible and we can never be 100% on anything...
But the data points to higher.
I also think max pain is higher. The 4 year cycle guys are about to get their pants pulled down and the chickens will come home to roost.
If we do move towards $90k soon, it will be the move that breaks them.
The Caliber Man retweeted
No one believed it.
Didn't matter - happened anyway.
When your fav 4 year cycle guru was posting about $35k BTC happening in Q4...
The data was actually telling us that Alts had bottomed and it was the time to accumulate.
I did accumulate, and shared all my buys.
Now, my port is up massive and 4 year cycle gurus are apologising.
We all have different ways of analysing the markets, but to me, the data was very clear.
Almost always, if you want to get the best entries and exits, you will be doing them very much separate from the groupthink.
OTHERS is up 50% from the below post, but the run has only just begun.
I'm proud of all these calls and I hope some of you took notice of the data i was sharing.
No one wants to believe this.
But we now have full bullish alignment for Alts.
And this is right at the time that pretty much 100% of people have declared them dead forever.
It is not a coincidence.
I understand alts have been a tricky and disappointing asset class for many...
But we must not let feeling get in the way of objective data.
This bullish alignment we have now confirmed has only happened three times before.
It is when the 1month RSI ticks up and RSI trend changes.
For deeper analysis, the 1M RSI has been bearish since May 2024, and it has now flipped bullish.
Each time these conditions have happened it has lead to an average of 430 days of OTHERS expansion.
I have marked it all very clearly for you on the chart.
This isn't hopium, this is high time frame, highly bullish and objective data, with a 100% track record.
Data > Feelings
Any time there was any asset class at the lows but changing trend...
There will be a huge amount of people calling it dead.
That is just the way it goes.
To be a successful investor you have to drown out that noise and find your own conviction against the crowd.
The Caliber Man retweeted
To everyone who clowned me...
I hope you learn and come back stronger.
I have been wrong many times, and I am not so arrogant to believe I won't be again.
It's a difficult spot to be in.
Not only are you wrong, you are not positioned for what has happened.
It stings.
It stings bad... I know the feeling.
But in life, it is in these moments of failure that we must show up the most.
Do not shy away from your mistakes.
The pain of screwing up won't go away overnight, but the only thing you can do is not allow it to defeat you.
Use the pain as the fuel to grow into a better man.
A better investor.
You must ensure you do not waste this opportunity by beating yourself up or giving up.
Any man that becomes a true success must walk through this type of fire and make it to other side.
Who are you going to be when the chips are down and you feel weak?
That is the real measure of who you are.
Pain is the great teacher... let it teach you.
Don't rush into it, don't chase.
Take your time, reassess, and own it all, 100%.
Correct where you went wrong, put in the time...
And never give up.
You cannot beat a man that will not give up.
I have been through it all.... and today, i get the win.
Next time, maybe not.
But we keep going anyway.
It's not over for you yet.
I wish you all the best.
The Caliber Man retweeted
If it wasn't already clear folks I'll repeat again- I believe our bottom on $CRV is in already.
Our key .29 level held.
We formed a base/bottoming structure on LTF at .30.
And now we are simply looking for further confirmation that the next leg up has begun.
The next leg up will ultimately take us to $1+.
So the only thing you should be doing right now (if you agree with my analysis) is positioning yourself for further upside.
That means- not selling every minor pump to buy back lower, but rather adding on dips when you can while managing risk in anticipation for the next leg up.
If we get a dip to low .30's again, great, it's a chance to add. But by no means is it guaranteed we will fall further, so don't look to pinch pennies here with positioning if you agree with my analysis.
Replying to @CredibleCrypto
Are you expecting a pop on CRv to .37 or so? Or is it done for this run iyo?
The Caliber Man retweeted
The bear final boss is losing the fight.
There is 1 hour 45 minutes until the weekly close, and as things stand, without some big liquidation drop, the 50SMA is gonna be reclaimed.
For the first time since losing it in November 2025.
It sits at $78,803.
Every single time, without fail, when the 50SMA has been reclaimed, it has marked the start of Bitcoins largest pushes.
In addition, every single time it has been reclaimed, it has only moved higher.
Never has it been reclaimed, and the price retrace, at all, actually. Just look at the QT post i shared.
As I always say, none of this means that this time cannot be different. Things can always happen for the first time.
However, basing your thesis on something that has NEVER happened before, when there is very clear data of it NOT happening 4x already, is simply dumb.
Investing is about probabilities.
The probability is wayyyy in the bulls corner now.
A clean break of this level has always provided fast moves higher.
Let's see if this will be the same.
This is the nail in the coffin for the bears.
As long as BTC closes above $78,900 in 14 hours, it will have closed:
- 1W candle above the 50SMA
- 3 daily candles also above it
The 50SMA is the bear final boss. It has been in every single bottoming cycle.
The price does not push up and above the 50SMA, from oversold conditions, especially on the weekly, if it is in-fact, weak.
It just doesn't happen, and has never happened.
We have never had a period where Bitcoin closes 3 days above it, and makes any kind of low next.
It has always pushed higher.
None of this means that this cannot happen for the first time, this time.
We may still drop lower after this - I have been eyeing $70k - $73k for a while...
But now we are up at this level, around the weekly close, it does change things.
Going off all of the data we have, Bitcoin closing above $78,900 this week has historically, 100% of the time, meant that we push much higher.
The main thing to take away from this is not that prices will never ever drop again.
But what it does, very very likely mean, is that downside is limited.
Be prepared for all outcomes, but ignoring very key data like this is, is not smart.
Even if we drop below $78,900 in 14 hours, i dont think it changes much.
Every single time we have come up to the 50SMA, from oversold, we have always reclaimed it and pushed higher.
A rejection today only delays the inevitable in my opinion.
And all the data we have proves that.
You do not need to overcomplicate it.
The Caliber Man retweeted
In what world is this a "net positive"? We didn't look down on low caps because we thought they would "hurt our brand", we looked down on mentioning them on the feed because we recognized that there are plenty of bad actors in this space who will actively pump and dump microcaps on peoples heads from untraceable side wallets while posturing as if they are seriously committed to an asset that they couldn't actually give two shits about if this became an "acceptable" thing to do. And now we are seeing exactly that happening en masse. It's absolutely NOT a "net positive".
The Caliber Man retweeted
The bears are all but defeated here.
Making a new high above $82,700 is a matter of when, not if.
The finishing blow is loading.
We have had the:
- Cycle bottom signal
- Bull Market signal
And now has the weekly candle above the 1W 50SMA for the first time since March 2023.
As soon as this candle closes above, the bears are 100% defeated.
Will it do it this week?
The Caliber Man retweeted
Go time for altcoins.
Straight off of this post yesterday, OTHERS has pushed 10%.
The setup for alts has not been this bullish for 5+ years.
We have been covering the mid cycle correction, and how the second half of this cycle would be the part that has the final large move from Bitcoin...
But more important for us degens, its the part where altcoins take over.
And we are already starting to see that.
I've been covering this in detail for a long time in my newsletter.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, I high suggest joining up and giving it a try. I sent 2x newsletters per week.
We are all winning nicely in there.
Link to join in the below comment.
Alts are looking very bullish here.
The bottom formation on OTHERS is incredibly clean.
We have a triple tap, with the 10/10 getting swept.
Then, a strong push up into the first higher high 12 months.
And now, a consolidation around that high.
Very nice price action.
Once this chop is done, I am expecting another very strong push higher.
The best period for alts is not far away.
OTHERS will make new highs over the next 6 months, and it will create conditions we haven't seen for a very long time.
The Caliber Man retweeted
I think this might've been the biggest bear trap ever.
That move to $58k really did its work.
Only to now deviate back above.
You gotta respect it.
The Market makers really used the 4 year cycle to lead the majority astray.
And it worked like a charm.
Bitcoin has now reclaimed that deviation, and max pain is higher for the sidelined beras.
Once we've figured out this next low...
Send it much higher.


































