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π NBA Betting Card Jan 3rd Recap π§Ή
β
Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 FGA -135
β
Collin Sexton Over 12.5 Pts -115
β
π LaMelo Ball Under 13.5 RA -130
β
π .75u Paul George Over 14.5 Pts -125
β
π RJ Barrett Over 14.5 Pts -115
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π Kawhi Leonard Under 22.5 FGA (1.74) #ClipperNation
π if you like my job here (might you receive a surprise in DM)
Leonard has stayed under this line in 17/23 games this season (74%). With Ivica Zubac back from injury, the hit rate becomes even worse: Kawhi went under in 15/18 games with Zubac active (83%), averaging 18.8 FGA.
Historically, this is also a tough spot. Kawhi has attempted fewer than 20 shots in all 4 matchups since 2021 against Celtics (15, 16, 12, 19). On top of that, Boston ranks as the 9th-best defense against small forwards.
When facing top-12 SF defenses, his shot volume has consistently stayed in check:
β 20 FGA vs Portland (41 minutes)
β 17 FGA vs Oklahoma (32 minutes)
β 17 FGA vs Minnesota (31 minutes)
β 20 FGA vs Dallas (29 minutes)
β 17 FGA vs Golden State (31 minutes)
β 21 FGA vs Portland (35 minutes)
He failed to clear this line in 6/6 games, averaging just 20.3 FGA per/36. Expanding the sample, Kawhi has also stayed under in 11/11 games against top-23 SF defenses when Zubac is on the floor, with an even lower 18.4 FGA per/36.
This matchup features the two slowest-paced teams in the league, and Leonard is expected to draw Bostonβs best wing defender, Jaylen Brown. Since being traded to the Clippers in 2019β20, Kawhi has never exceeded 20 FGA in vs Brown (15, 16, 12, 20). Even during his peak with Toronto in 2019, his volume still dipped in those matchups (15, 19).
I like Kawhi and wouldnβt be surprised if he has an efficient night, but his FGA line feels significantly inflated.
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Cesta Certa retweeted
π Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Pts + Rebs (1.80) #AllFire
β’ Avg 27.3 PR and 13.5 FGA at road.
β’ 26+ PR in 6/6 games with 10+ FGA (29.8 avg).
β’ 28+ PR in 3/3 matchups against his former team (28, 36, 32).
β’ Phoenix allows the 4th MOST PR and 6th MOST FGA from opposing SFs.
π Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Pts + Rebs (1.80) #AllFire
β’ Avg 27.3 PR and 13.5 FGA at road.
β’ 26+ PR in 6/6 games with 10+ FGA (29.8 avg).
β’ 28+ PR in 3/3 matchups against his former team (28, 36, 32).
β’ Phoenix allows the 4th MOST PR and 6th MOST FGA from opposing SFs.
Cesta Certa retweeted
π NBA Betting Card 6th November
Walker Kessler Over 12.5 Pts (1.90)
#LakeShow
Scottie Barnes Over 31.5 PR (1.90)
#WeTheNorth
Damian Lillard Over 25.5 PR (1.86)
#RipCity
π $25 GIVEAWAY if we sweep! β at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
π NBA Betting Card 6th November
Walker Kessler Over 12.5 Pts (1.90)
#LakeShow
Scottie Barnes Over 31.5 PR (1.90)
#WeTheNorth
Damian Lillard Over 25.5 PR (1.86)
#RipCity
π $25 GIVEAWAY if we sweep! β at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4th Nov Recap | 6-3 (+2u)
β
White O 7.5 RA (1.78)
β
Doncic O 14.5 RA (1.90)
β
James O 12.5 RA (1.86)
β
Brown O 14.5 FGA (1.87)
β
Washington O 1.5 3P (1.72)
β
Davis O 36.5 PRA (1.90)
β Durant O 27.5 PR (1.90) 26
β Harden U 17.5 Pts (1.88) 19
β Randle O 30.5 PRA (1.86) 29
Cesta Certa retweeted
π NBA Betting Card 4th Nov
Derrick White Over 7.5 RA (1.78)
Luka Doncic Over 14.5 RA (1.90)
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 PR (1.90)
LeBron James Over 12.5 RA (1.86)
Jaylen Brown VIP
Julius Randle VIP
PJ Washington VIP
Anthony Davis VIP
James Harden VIP
π $50 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
π NBA Betting Card 4th Nov
Derrick White Over 7.5 RA (1.78)
Luka Doncic Over 14.5 RA (1.90)
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 PR (1.90)
LeBron James Over 12.5 RA (1.86)
Jaylen Brown VIP
Julius Randle VIP
PJ Washington VIP
Anthony Davis VIP
James Harden VIP
π $50 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
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t.me/cestacertamembershipbot
π NBA Betting Card 2nd November
Saddiq Bey Over 14.5 Pts + Rebs (1.75)
Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Pts (1.87)
Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 Pts (1.80)
LaMelo Ball Over 6.5 Asts (1.82)
π $50 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
Other props dropped on VIP!
π NBA Betting Card 30 Oct Recap
β
Giannis Antetokounmpo O 42.5 PR -110
β
Immanuel Quickley O 4.5 Asts -125
β
Duncan Robinson O 12.5 Pts -120
β Franz Wagner U 35.5 PRA -110
3-1, sweep lost on the 4th quarter β at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
π NBA Betting Card 30 Oct
π $20 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 42.5 PR -110
#HEATNation
Immanuel Quickley Over 4.5 Asts -125
#WeTheNorth
Duncan Robinson Over 12.5 Pts -120
#DetroitBasketball
Franz Wagner Under 35.5 PRA -110
#MakeItMagic
Cesta Certa retweeted
π NBA Betting Card 30 Oct
π $20 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 42.5 PR -110
#HEATNation
Immanuel Quickley Over 4.5 Asts -125
#WeTheNorth
Duncan Robinson Over 12.5 Pts -120
#DetroitBasketball
Franz Wagner Under 35.5 PRA -110
#MakeItMagic
π NBA Betting Card 30 Oct
π $20 GIVEAWAY if we sweep!
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 42.5 PR -110
#HEATNation
Immanuel Quickley Over 4.5 Asts -125
#WeTheNorth
Duncan Robinson Over 12.5 Pts -120
#DetroitBasketball
Franz Wagner Under 35.5 PRA -110
#MakeItMagic








