chef energy (@chefnrg) header
chef energy (@chefnrg) profile picture

Stock analyst. Investor. Sharing trades but not advice formerly @moatgoatz

United States
Joined March 2022
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chef energy retweeted
Two days ago, it was the COO. Now, it’s the CEO… Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi just disclosed a $10M personal purchase of $UBER stock, buying shares at an average price of $70.96. Walking the talk.
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$ZBRA took a little off the table after the earnings pop. Up to 18 fwd p/e 61% gain in couple months. Still holding core position. In my top 5 positions at 4.3% of portfolio
Replying to @JoeValue
$ZBRA Around 12x fwd p/e. Among industry leaders in RTLS and industrial automation. Both hardware and software. Largely ignored and misprinted because legacy business is boring and low margin — ie selling barcode printers. Huge tailwind from manufacturing and AI. It’s the bridge between hardware and software. Thesis breaks if manufacturing trends more towards autonomous humanoid bots rather than specialized machines. I think that’s unlikely. Ask people in the industry and they generally agree that specialization is much more likely short term.
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This guys entire thesis is dependent on lower oil. The rest follow Not a given by any stretch of the imagination #oott
There’s a zero percent chance we’d be short this market. We’re entering a true Goldilocks set-up…lower oil, rates, dollar, inflation…and what we believe will be a melt-up into the midterms.
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chef energy retweeted
The BEST prompt for AI agents I've heard over the last 12 months is ONLY 3 words, and it comes from someone who managed multi-billion dollar P&Ls in AI, led a 100 person org at AWS, and now runs a brilliant AI workforce of 34 agents: 1. Her best prompt is just "do smart things" She gives the agents all her context first, her calendar, email, Stripe, goals, and transcripts, then lets them decide what's worth doing. She realized every task still started as a thought in her own head, which meant the company could only ever be as good as what she remembered to ask for. 2. Her human team talks to her agents in Slack. She has a channel where a teammate can ask "did that financial services client reply to Ali's email," and the agents answer directly, so people stop waiting hours for her to get back to them. 3. Since an AI agent costs almost nothing, she hired the person she'd never put on payroll. One does nothing but ask how to make everything ten times better. Another just watches the other agents work and flags where they get stuck. 4. She avoids old job titles, because the second you call one your CMO, you've rebuilt a 2015 company with robots. Most of her sub-agents run on cheaper, smaller models and do the job fine. 5. Run an AI watchdog instead of a dashboard. Point one at your Slack to catch two people doing the same work, at your calendar to flag conflicts, at your analytics to tell you what to post tomorrow. Almost nobody does this yet. 6. She keeps a daily "brain dump" that feeds the agents. At the end of each day she dictates what's in her head that isn't written down anywhere, the stuff that only lived in a meeting or a Slack thread, and it goes into a wiki the agents read. That's how they get the context that email and calendar miss. 7. She uses a "last 30 days" research skill to spin up on anything fast. Before running a workshop for 200 execs in an industry she doesn't know, she fans out agents to scan and synthesize the last month of news, then walks in sounding like she's followed it for years. That's my convo with @alliekmiller on @startupideaspod . Pretty much her biggest tips for using AI agents. Full episode below. youtube.com/watch?v=EzQAgnjT… Happy building, I'm rooting for you.
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chef energy retweeted
People who are serious about building a business focus on distribution.
People who are serious about software train their own models.
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I mostly invest in companies because of their fundamentals. In some cases because of the management. With $FIG, I think @zoink is one of the best young founders in the game, and I’m willing to bet on him
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Most retail portfolios either lag the S&P or take on insane risk trying to beat it. I pulled the multi-year risk/return metrics on my taxable account from Schwab, and the numbers revealed a few surprising truths about active risk vs. actual alpha. Here’s the breakdown 👇
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The Takeaway Beating a benchmark isn't about throwing darts at high-beta micro-caps. It’s about finding asymmetry: Accepting reasonable, controlled volatility (~16%) while structuring allocations to capture disproportionate upside.
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Tracking risk metrics like Beta, R^2, and Standard Deviation over multi-year horizons is the best way to audit whether your active strategy is actually adding value or just masking uncompensated risk. How do you benchmark your portfolio’s risk profile? Let me know below 💬
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Top holdings 28% CAGR over past 5 years compared to 19% for $SPY - $YOU 5.2% - $MELI 4.7% - $ASML 4.5% - $ZBRA 4.3% - $META 3.9% - $AMZN 3.9% - $ENPH 3.4% - $GOOGL 3.1% - $CRM 3.0% (new) - $CNQ 2.9% - $SE 2.9% Adding to $ISRG $TMDX $HBRIY
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I’m building a position in $ISRG Easily one of the highest quality businesses in America. 32x forward p/e is extremely reasonable. My average right now is 398. Plan to buy more next week if it stays before 350
P/E from 74x to 40x gives you flat after 5 years Despite earnings... doubling 😬 $ISRG
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So buy $SCHD?
A former COO of Citadel Securities is telling you where the money is in AI For free
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chef energy retweeted
$ISRG - Intuitive Surgical The future of robotics extends far beyond humanoids. Surgical robotics is one of the highest-quality secular growth themes, and $ISRG remains the clear leader. The 200-week moving average has been a great place to pay attention historically.
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Buying $SE in the low 80’s was about as obvious a swing as they get
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