Surfing the orderbooks 🍵 Manage money for a top L2. Prev built 2bn TVL DeFi app
Joined April 2022
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I still believe crypto continues to lag behind equities. Easy to perceive temporary outperformance as strength by overfitting your bias to the charts
Equities are still shaky, and whilst I'm not a bear, it makes it very difficult to hold conviction longs with size
Patience
Tp'd some as I think it's a weekend move and a nice 2+% bounce that's worth taking some profits off the table on
Generally weekend lows aren't the most convincing, especially when it's while CME isn't even open (specific for $BTC)
As such I think probabilities of us continuing down is high
Btw if you've been losing money only going long or only shorting recently, I think this is VERY VERY normal.
Markets have *not* been easy.
If you miss the 1-2 days it moves a lot, you're basically just thrown random chop.
I got chopped up a bit on stronger directional bets before I pivoted into pair trading again in the last 1-2 weeks and strategies have stabilized much more
Continue to adapt. If you've been losing a lot, just cut size to like 10% your normal risk until you feel like markets are turning in your favor again
Such is the life cycle and infinite improvement treadmill we are all on as traders
people ask me how i can stomach the recent losses.
i lost nothing. in this moment, i have exactly the amount of dollars i deserve. the rest is just variance.
our NW will always regress to the base level of our process. always. our job is to constantly elevate said base level.
Ok it wasn't really choppy, more like straight red candles in quick succession down only LMEOW
Now we're at support tho so let's see where the candles close $BTC
Some choppy consolidation wouldn't surprise me on $BTC
Any sustained weakness below 81k and I'd gtfo, add to hedge shorts
Still net long for now with selective alt hedge shorts open for now.
Best to wait for closes in choppy environments
Act slow when markets are slow
This is what they all wishes the equity curve looked like
(it's not mine in aggregate but one of the main strategies entered around the 760s)
To be clear, there are 2 sides of the coin for the $PAPER changes
As @papertrade_xyz team, obviously they have to do it to prevent attack vectors, maximize longevity, and they still earn via fees
As stakers, you have to fight the inflation economics of PAPER emissions. If you were hoping for staking + not trading and earning, then obviously profitability comes down drastically
It is what it is. Just going to leave $PAPER staked and hope revenues outgrow the inflation lmeow.
Chop retweeted
Yeah this is true and not ideal but I think it's fine if you think from a builder's perspective as to how to keep the company running
If you have a bunch of whales who farmed $PAPER early sitting on the house stake and then not trading themselves, it becomes an extractive cycle
They need to incentivize new players to come in with the economics also giving them a slight edge over old whales
I say this as someone who farmed $PAPER early and as a staker
Some people seem upset about the $PAPER @papertrade_xyz update but I think it's good
Owning PAPER is owning a share of the house
If non-transferability etc. is required in order to prevent attack vectors, then that's how it should be
Ppl missing the forest for the trees
Insane @variational_io growth since my post last year. 5x in OI
Whilst you're not early to farming it, you should def use it for regular trading. It's free money. You have ~2 months before TGE max
Use my code for +12% points boost and better fees
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
Here are the two main perp DEXs I've been trading on that I think present MASSIVE opportunities:
My criteria is based on a few main factors:
1. Differentiating factor of perp DEX (especially vs HL)
2. Vision
3. Team's ability to execute vision (including grit & persistence)
4. Product UI/UX + liquidity
The above specs is also why I'm a big $HYPE support alongside others. I need products I actually use. I'm not bothered to test perp DEXs where I get slipped 2% for 50k orders.
So my top 2 picks are:
1. Variational @variational_io
> The massive sleeper perp DEX that people are overlooking imo
> 50% of $VAR (their token) supply allocated for community
> 2026 TGE (I think H1 but tbc)
> No points program yet. Private alpha, need code for access
> Access is gated via volume. 1M trading vol = 1 invite
And that's not it. They still offer:
> No fees rn (afaik)
> Loss refund mechanic
> Team is very persistent and shows great adaptability + execution. I've been speaking with them since Dec last year
> Tremendous growth trajectory & stats
10K lifetime traders, 60M+ TVL, 430M+ OI, multiple 1B+ volume days in a row, 500+ pairs
> Liquidity + UX + execution has significantly improved over the last few weeks. Tradeable for alt pos sizes <500k
You're still VERY early because their points aren't even live and you need a code to trade. 1M volume per 1 invite.
They've offered me an affiliate code:
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
Benefits of my ref:
> ~50 uses, pls no waste lmeow
> Instant bronze tier for 90 days: cheaper fees and better loss refunds
> Some additional benefits that only affiliate referrees will benefit from when points go live soon
Don't sleep on this. And don't waste my ref code kek.
2. TradeXYZ @tradexyz
> This is the big volume but big winner that is cooking imo due to team and vision.
> Shoku + HL exposure
> Trading equities onchain is VERY difficult to facilitate properly but I believe in Shoku + HL team on executing this
> Clean product thus far with top tier support & resources
> Immediately available: You can now trade XYZ assets via the HL frontend. TradeXYZ itself still needs 5mm volume on HL before can access
> Liquidity is deep enough for low 6 fig positions. I'm using it to punt NQ and looking forward to other stocks
Ref : trade.xyz/?ref=79SM1QZYD
Rare shill post from me but tbh I think these are the two standout opportunities thus far. I've used extended and the other ones which I'm watching but either have poor UX, liquidity, or EV not there anymore.
I'm not paid by anyone btw. Just my opinion on the perp dexs that are worth trading on and present outsized upside.
DMs open. Frens can also reach out to me if you want to get connected to the team and maybe get affiliate too.