Wow 🤯. Love these kind of clear insights.
黃仁勳外遇，很多人以為這是新聞，其實 10 月底紐時就爆過了。
報導指出，川普一年前就聽過情報簡報，但選擇不採取行動，因為他不想影響輝達的晶片銷售，這些銷售有助推動經濟和股市。
換句話說，老黃過去一年有川普這把保護傘。
可是 11/3 期中選舉一出來，民主黨拿下參眾兩院，明年 1 月新國會上任後，委員會主席全換成民主黨，傳喚權也跟著換手。
有一點很關鍵：選後第二天要求老黃說明的，是三位共和黨籍的委員。
新國會要明年 1 月才上任，現在委員會還是共和黨在管，而且這次只是要求出席閉門簡報，不是公開聽證會，也不是傳票。
民主黨沒有理由幫川普最愛的 AI CEO 擋子彈。反過來說，「川普知情卻放任國安風險」對他們來說是絕佳的政治題材。
所以老黃的算盤很簡單：
與其明年被民主黨搞，不如趁現在共和黨還在管，自己先處理掉。
現在面對的是共和黨，關起門來談，比較好收尾。等到明年 1 月換成民主黨，換來的可能就是公開聽證會、正式傳喚，外加全國電視直播。
所以他先承認外遇、董事會先啟動調查、11/18 再進去閉門把事情講清楚，有機會在換手之前把這件事定調成「私德問題，已處理」。
外遇最壞就是丟臉；等到明年被民主黨挖出來，可能就變成國安問題了。
chrisjunlee retweeted
These are the most important words a White House Chief of Staff have ever spoken…
Listen. You know I am right.
chrisjunlee retweeted
Marcus Aurelius understood the fleeting nature of human existence when he said, “You will be forgotten either way. So live in such a manner that, while you remain, you belong to yourself.” Stop sacrificing your authenticity for the approval of people who are equally temporary. Their opinions will fade, and so will their memories of you. The real tragedy isn’t being forgotten after death, it’s living a life that was never truly yours.
chrisjunlee retweeted
People have no idea how sophisticated nation state activities are
If you are a target of opportunity for China it’s not unheard of for them to dedicate O(1000) humans dedicated to compromising you
This is what happened w their NYT hack in 2013, which was designed to send a message
They will compromise your friend’s friend’s friend to compromise you
And work down that chain until your friend invites you on a fun trip on a private plane to Mexico/Thailand/wherever (example)
Where some night you have a very boozy dinner and then you show back up at the house and some girls are there
You’re drunk and make a mistake and then you’re owned until you’re disposable
Nation state kompromat for “target’s of choice” is a system designed to find any individual’s weakness (you’re bisexual; a gambler, an alcoholic, drug addict, have a debt, adulterous, etc) and then force them into a situation of maximum amplification of this weakness
99% of people can be compromised using nation state capabilities and tactics
nytimes.com/2013/01/31/techn…
Bro code 👊
🚨 NOW: President Trump RALLIES behind Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang after his affair with an alleged Chinese spy, saying he "probably has an excuse for it" and "he's done an incredible job"
"He's a fine person. You never know what's going on. I hope everything's fine...he's an honorable guy."
"He's done an amazing job for our country."
Undeniable that Huang is SUPER valuable to America
He's committing to re-gain the trust of Nvidia. We can't let China win!
God bless Bill.
I admire Jensen, but my portfolio cannot take this upcoming hit 😭
An alert:
@JensenHuang is human. And he is an incredible human. Even incredible humans make mistakes.
He takes full responsibility as he should.
We should all support him and his family.
Onward.
chrisjunlee retweeted
JPMORGAN:
“.. equity multiples have de-rated by ~4x since the January highs—one of the most extreme compressions in modern history outside of a recession ..” 👀
chrisjunlee retweeted
约翰·麦卡菲被问了无数次“成功的秘诀”，终于懒得再装了。
他直接说：你不会喜欢这个答案。
许多人终其一生都在拼命努力、频繁试错、疯狂内卷，结果依然在原地打转。
不是能力不够，也不是机运未到。
因为你本质上是一个被死死拴在海底的气球。
气球生来就该向上浮。
真正把你按在深水区窒息的，不是天赋的贫瘠，而是你身上的负重：
恐惧、怨恨、失望，以及对受害者身份的执念。
这些烂绳子不斩断，你再怎么折腾，也绝不可能浮出水面。
斩断它们，你浮到顶端只是一种物理必然。
麦卡菲给出的解法极其冷酷，只有一句话：
立刻切断，绝不恋战。
伴侣惹毛你、合伙人背刺你，如果你在 10 秒钟内还无法翻篇，这局你就已经彻底输了。
因为那已经是过去。
10 秒前是过去，10 小时前是过去，10 年前同样是过去。
在这个物理世界里，过去根本不存在。
你每多愤怒一秒，都是在用现在的生命，为死掉的幽灵支付巨额租金。
停止反刍，停止怨恨，剪掉所有往下拉扯你的下坠力量。
困住你的从来不是残酷的外部世界，而是你自己死死攥着、舍不得松手的那根烂绳子。
chrisjunlee retweeted
🚨 Funniest. President. EVER!
REPORTER TO ZOHRAN MAMDANI: "Are you affirming you think President Trump is a FASCIST?"
MAMDANI: "I've-"
PRESIDENT TRUMP: "-that's OK. You can just say YES. It's easier than explaining it, I don't mind." *Pats Mamdani on the back*
OMG 😭😭
chrisjunlee retweeted
Interesting bits from Brian’s Airbnb earnings call about AI agents and consumer behavior:
— Airbnb gets ~500k bookings a day
— ”very non-material” traffic from Muse/Instinct
— says people *want* to browse: average user looks at dozens of listings and 25+ photos
— 90% of users message the host
— most traffic comes between 9 to 5 when people are at work (using Airbnb as escapism)
— 80% of travels say they like doing their own travel research
chrisjunlee retweeted
America is a Latin American country now, so let me explain politics:
We elect communists to kill the rich. But communism brings poverty & crime. So we elect fascists to kill the communists. But the fascists hand the economy to oligarchs. So we elect communists to kill the rich.
chrisjunlee retweeted
BYD’s supercar became the first car to break the 500 kmph barrier.
Charlie Munger explains why BYD has achieved this:
“Wang Chuanfu, the founder of BYD is a genius. He’s been thinking about the right things 17 hours a day all his life. He’s a workaholic.”
“He was the 8th son of a peasant. He bought a failed auto company and turned into a car company which would sell more electric cars than anyone else in the world.”
speeding up past 300km/h
speeding up past 400km/h
topping 500km/h
scary
congrats team BYD or should I say Yangwang?
⚡️⚡️⚡️
#alwaysbecharging
chrisjunlee retweeted
Charlie Munger: "It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn't get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities."
Great opportunities are rare. FOMO makes mediocre ones look great & tempts you into moves you'll regret.
FOMO is temporary. Regret is forever.
chrisjunlee retweeted
Soros: At some point every bubble will experience the big *test*, where the reflexive feedback loop flips from positive to negative. During the test, the market will try to take out the highly leveraged bulls. You do not want to own the asset during the test.
But if the market fails to push down prices enough to clear out all the bulls, then you have the greenlight to jump back in with even more size than before the test. The failure to clear out the bulls proves the broader trend is incredibility resilient.
After the test, the next phase of the bubble is the acceleration phase where it extends much higher and much longer than anyone expects.
In today's case with AI, perhaps if the market was to learn over the next few weeks/months that AI is resilient to the political cycle, then we could enter the acceleration phase?
TSMC $TSM IS CONSIDERING MAKING ADVANCED MEMORY CHIPS FOR THE FIRST TIME
Taiwan Semiconductor recently started drawing up plans to make 3D DRAM, an advanced type of memory chip. The Information says it was at the request of its biggest customer Nvidia
chrisjunlee retweeted
Let me tell you a story about how unethical Anthropic is.
In April, the Anthropic team began heavily courting our engineering team to tell them corporate secrets, technical details, and future plans for @cfosilvia.
They pretended their interest was due to our exploding popularity and accelerating compute usage, but it quickly became apparent that Anthropic was fishing for details on how we built our product and why it was so popular.
This included the Anthropic team trying to wine-and-dine our engineers, including a infamous steak dinner where someone told our team "don't worry about it, this is on Dario."
Our team was not born yesterday, so we quickly realized what was happening and refused to share sensitive information and technical details with the Anthropic team.
As we suspected, Anthropic was trying to get information from us, so they could build a competing product. Some people on their team must have a guilty conscious because they messaged us a few days ago to give us "a heads-up" that they were launching a competing product.
Thankfully, the Silvia engineering team has been aggressively working to get off the frontier models for the last ~ 6 months. That effort has been highly successful, because our compute costs are ~ 97% lower when we use our own model & hardware, the latency is lower, and the accuracy of answers materially increases as well.
The sad thing for Anthropic is they have now released an inferior product and they had to sell their soul to do it.
The only thing worse than being a trillion-dollar company that can't beat a 10-person team is being a trillion-dollar company that no one trusts and everyone knows is unethical.
Serious investors continue to choose @cfosilvia over ChatGPT, Claude, and other frontier companies because these products are not optimized to solve the actual user problem.
Today, Anthropic launched a Claude wrapper that is masquerading as a personal finance product. Best of luck to them.
But I will take the Silvia misfits vs the Anthropic losers any day of the week.
if you want to support people trying to do things the right way, and help investors be more informed, then consider signing up for Silvia today: silvia.com
