市场面前的小学生

Joined October 2021
🎒Backpack背包周边抽奖来啦!! 积分赛季最后一周了,即将迎来TGE! 感谢大家一直支持!这次送出【3份】随机周边: 背包、帽子、水杯 等(随机发送其中一个) 参与方式: 1⃣️点赞 ❤ 2⃣️转发 ↹(公开转发) 3⃣️关注 ☞ @sharles_eth 📅截止时间: 后天,2026年3月10日晚上20点抽奖! 中奖者私信我收货地址~(请确保能私信) 谁来冲第一份?快来参与吧! 🚀#Backpack #Solana #抽奖 感谢官方支持@Backpack_CN @CryptoPikachu
🤝 Paid partnership
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不曾起舞的日子里,都是在沉淀自己。
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燃起来了!🔥🔥
In the Backpack tokenomics, we have one guiding principle. - Insiders "dumping on retail" should be impossible: no founder, executive, employee, or venture investor should receive wealth from the token until the product hits escape velocity. Of course it begs the question, what does it mean to "hit escape velocity". Every project is different, and it's impossible to generalize. For Backpack, the answer is clear: we want to IPO in the USA. Going public might happen quickly, it might happen not so quickly, and in fact, it might not happen at all. In any case, we're going for it. But before going public, we have to grow--a lot. The odd thing about Backpack's growth over the past year--and in fact one of the things that makes Backpack so different from basically every token project in crypto--is that, today, Backpack Exchange only serves about 48% of the world. We've been very slow, very intentional about opening up our product to the world, ensuring that we have every "i" dotted and ever "t" crossed as a regulated financial institution. Growth that sometimes feels like running with a parachute, but we are happy to take the long path, because it's precisely that parachute that will allow us to fly. For those that don't know us, the reason for this is simple. Backpack is trying to not only build great crypto products, but we're also trying to build great TradFi products. We're trying to not only give our users access to every crypto asset, every blockchain, and every decentralized application, but we're also getting banking rails around the world, USD client money accounts in the USA, EUR in the EU, JPY in Japan--every currency on every major payment network you can imagine. We're trying to build a great securities product, whether that's getting access to your favorite stocks in a traditional brokerage or bidding on primary shares of a company about to go public on NASDAQ. We want to serve not only retail users worldwide, but we want to serve regulated products for regulated counterparties and regulated institutions around the world. All of this takes an enormous amount of time, effort, blood, sweat, and tears. We've been working on this for over three years at this point, laying an international foundation for the company and for the product slowly but surely, brick by brick. If we're lucky, we'll spend a lifetime. What this all means is that, in the most literal sense--and I know this sounds silly--we're just getting started. We still have half the world to open up into. We still have some of our most exciting products to launch. And this leads to our next guiding principle in our tokenomics. - Liquid tokens should exclusively go to users, fueling growth triggered by key product milestones. Every time we open up a new region, every time we launch a new product, that's an opportunity to grow. Open up EU => grow. Open up Japan => grow. Open up the USA => grow. Open up predictions => grow. Open up stocks => grow. Open up card => grow. Like gasoline onto a fire, the token serves to continuously kickstart new markets in the same way points kickstarted Seasons 1-4. With every growth lever we pull, tokens unlock in a predictable way to users, bringing in a new wave of token holders, growing the community, and allowing the product to soar to new heights. The objective constraint for this to work is precise: the value of added growth created by new token unlocks must always be greater than the dilution of those unlocks. As long as that condition holds, we can continue to unlock tokens direct to our most active users, growing along the way. Last but not least is the question: Ok so if all the liquid tokens are going to users, then what about the team? How exactly do you remain incentive aligned while ensuring the team cannot unlock, dump on retail, and become enormously wealthy without building something great? And the answer is simple: not a single founder, executive, team member, or venture investor has been given a direct token allocation. The entire "team allocation" sits in a "corporate treasury", i.e. on the balance sheet of the Backpack company--locked until at least one year post IPO. The team owns equity in the company, and the company owns a large percent of the token supply. It's not until the company goes public (or has some other type of equity exit event), that the team can earn any wealth from the project. It's not until the company has access to the largest, most liquid capital markets in the world by going public--and it's not until the company has done all the hard work to earn access to those markets--that the team can reap the rewards of the value created by the Backpack community from now until then. We either go big, or we go home.
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露富是最容易带来的不怀好意的“朋友”的了。 我之前说过我有过三次创业破产的经历, 有两次都是因为露富遇到了心怀不轨的人,而不是因为事情本身不行。 除此之外, 露富也一定是一段关系疏远和破裂的开始。 绝大部分有问题的关系,可能祸根都是钱, 这是一个非常微妙又复杂的问题,就先不细说了。 只能说,当你经历过很多事情,涨了很多教训后,慢慢就会明白露富的弊端了,特别是身边人。 较早拿到结果的人,往往都要经历这一劫,反正我跟物总早年是都没有逃过。 所以,总结经验后,现在我的那些亲戚、朋友、同学,家里人,兄弟、姐妹,包括我的父母。 没有任何人知道我到底是干嘛的,有没有赚到钱。 即使是我老婆,都知道得不多。😅 我认为这是一种保护。 保护他人,保护一段关系,就是保护自己,露富,是一切麻烦的开端。
现在想想,我年轻时赚到快钱,踩得最大的坑就是露富。 买车、买表、请客、抢着结账,生怕别人不知道我混得不错。 对外露富意味着什么? 相当于一直在打广告:我有钱,我没阅历,我是血包,快来吸我啊。 于是惦记你的人就多了起来,你很难分得清谁是真朋友,谁是来做局的人。 尤其当你还处在无知者无畏的上风期时,更容易觉得自己天下无敌。 这也是为什么,很多二十来岁突然有钱的小镇年轻人、拆二代,很难绕开这一劫。 想用外在去填补自卑和匮乏,觉得终于证明自己了,可本质上只是活在自己制造的幻觉里。 如果原生环境本来就缺乏安全感,这种冲动几乎是必然。 我自己没绕开,到现在也很少见到有人能绕开这关。
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迄今为止,我在币圈最受用的几条投资邪修法—— 1️⃣ 当你跌的想割肉的时候,就该加仓了。 2️⃣ 当你犹豫要不要止盈的时候,就止盈。 3️⃣ 当你在幻想要发财马上要财富自由的时候,就该时刻准备逢高减仓了。 4️⃣ 当你同时看好两个标的的时候,最好两个都买点,千万别极限二选一,只买一个的话,一定是另外一个涨得好。 5️⃣ 情绪不对的时候不要做任何操作,不管男的女的,每个月总有那么几天会有神奇想法乱调仓,然后变天坑。 6️⃣ 加入自选的时候就得果断入手,要信早信,要么不信。 7️⃣ 越是牛市,越容易成为散户亏钱的根源。 8️⃣ 想赚钱就前期跟着散户走,后期跟散户反着走。 9️⃣ 新高之后就不要听老韭菜的了,因为他们也没有新高之后的赚钱经验。 🔟 大哥只能带你入行,钱多久亏完要看你自己。 相信我,这比单纯学技术有用一百倍! 全听懂的点个赞!
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🎒Backpack周边Miho同款帽子抽奖 参与方式: 1) 关注 @Miiiho420 2)关注 @Backpack_CN 3)转发 + 评论:你最想要的 Backpack 周边 评论区随机抽 🎁 3位~ 截止时间:48h 后开奖
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很多人低估了写作这项技能的牛逼之处,虽然币圈有很多KOL压根不做交易,但他们写作的能力,还是厉害的。 人生三大杠杆:比特币,纳指,和写作。 比特币,纳指好理解,这是每个人都触手可及的顶级资产。 写作是什么???俗话说,枪杆子,笔杆子。 现在和平年代,靠枪杆子立功扬名立万概率很低,但笔杆子的作用一直都在啊?执笔如刀,和枪杆子效果一样的。 我觉得 币安一姐能那么出名,持续为币安平台代言,其中一个重要原因就是一姐写作能力也非常强,经常输出长篇雄文,有理有据,这友商就写不出来只能酸,比如 币安人生之后的 修仙文。@heyibinance 还有嗯哼,很多人只看到了嗯哼的舔,其实嗯哼写作能力还是挺强的。 有本书叫,《纳瓦尔宝典》 ,纳瓦尔被称为互联网时代的“觉醒者”,其中有两段话: “靠出租时间是无法致富的。你必须拥有股权,才能实现财务自由。” “编程、写书、录播客、发推特、拍视频这些事情不需要经过任何人的许可。由此可见,新杠杆就像一个均衡器,极大地缩小了人与人之间的差距,让社会变得更平等。” 分别对应 纳指(股权),写作。 写作不需要许可,不需要资格,门槛低、回报高,它最大的价值是:写着写着,你就变得更清晰;写着写着,你就有了自己的方向。 写作不仅能让自己出名,而且 要想写的出来,你自己就得去看 去研究,看着写着,你就看清了自己从事的方向。 比特币,是普通人拥有的顶级资产。 纳指,是普通人能拥有的顶级股权。 写作,是普通人能免费使用的杠杆。 如果你能同时拥有上面三件事,你的人生将进入另一条增长曲线。 所以,写起来吧,骚年?👏👏👏
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交易追求的是时空大圆满 时间上表现为行情的四季变换、人在时间里的经历感受 空间上表现为账户的起伏波动、人随账户的贪嗔痴疑慢 人为什么要经历几轮失败成功方才觉悟? 因为没有沉沦过,没有彻底撞到南墙,彻底失败 很难梦醒 只能抵住岁月,捱到今日方知我是我的圆满之境 年轻时的失败 不幸也是幸。
好巧不巧,我交易历程里,跌入谷底也至少有3次, 第一次是2017年初,牛市刚开头,BTC再次突破1000u的某一天,一下午工夫亏掉前面几年的收益,亏掉的甚至包含当时引以为傲的“2014年熊市我都能靠做超跌反弹赚十倍,我是天才吧”的部分。 第二次是2018年11月18日左右,本来想赌短线反弹的仓位,变成了继续扛单。 第三次是2020年312,大部分场内仓位在低位被强平。 这3次都是整体性大亏+中间提盈<20% 看到@0xPickleCati 提到打算分享低谷期办法, 我也来分享下我对 “一个人跌入谷底可以怎么样存活下去,到再站起来” 办法的部分个人体会。 相当于之前讲奖励/痛苦,正负反馈取代意志力的续篇: (xitter.cf/coolish/status/1803041… 和下方引用推里黄瓜猫分享的“痛苦课”异曲同工) 不一定适用每个人,但应该能提供启发。 1. 找到和培养自己与“经济、赚钱”关系不大的兴趣追求。 如果我们讨论的“跌入谷底”,是经济、赚钱维度上的, 那么早早培养对经济要求不高的一些兴趣爱好, 就很有机会成为,自己身陷终极风险时的“安全网”支撑。 如果一个人所有的兴趣和生存意志, 都完全依赖于很多钱才行, 那么任何一个经济底谷, 都太可能把这个人的各方面底线击穿,进而万劫不复。 这种兴趣,雅俗都可以, 人文娱乐运动技术生活自然类...等等 任何能让自己长期挖掘,获得乐趣、精神满足的, 小确幸兴趣都可以。 《仙逆》里王林自废全部修为化凡入世重新起号, 不是立马再一心攀登修为,而是刻木雕... 我的情况是,从小一直热爱电脑游戏、电影, 所以我清楚记得在最谷底时,我心里和自己说过: “哪怕我未来穷困了, 这世界上还会有不断推陈出新的游戏电影电视, 只要我健康活下去,从这些里获得精神富足, 也花不了多少钱” 这种“对最低底线知足”的想法, 对我在谷底时避免极端、心态健康起到了很大帮助。 另一方面,越严重的谷底时,越需要精神疗伤修复, 那么此时,对经济要求不高的兴趣爱好, 就是最佳的,对你不离不弃的修复、分散注意力方式。 1.1 同样这类兴趣,也能在你达到高峰时预防“走火入魔”。 只有在牛市高潮经历过 “账面人生巅峰→跌落谷底”的循环后才会有过这种体会: 高潮时的自己,进入了“入魔”状态, 整个人一心只有账面数字大小、奢侈愿望单, 完全丢失了“我到底需要什么”。 而那些平时培养的,成本低却让自己精神富足的兴趣, 有机会提醒自己: 我的知足,不一定需要那个量级的钱。 缺乏这类兴趣, 就更容易一心只被无止尽越来越大的数字牵着鼻子走。 一个不太恰当但帮助理解的比喻: 同样是铤而走险的贪官, 一个有小兴趣的贪官,贪个多少万可能觉得适可而止了, (人生有很多美好小确幸,比那些更凶险的收益更值得) 一个没小兴趣的贪官,可能唯一兴趣就是更大的数字了。 如果因为太着急追逐“没那么必须的钱”, 却导致失去“真正必须的钱”, 会是最让人懊悔的事。 另一方面,我认同一句话: 超过生存所需的钱,在经过自己兴趣品味转化前, 它就只是数字。 早早培养这类兴趣,既是没钱时的精神安全网, 也是有钱时的“懂花钱会花钱”的指南。 2. 当谷底已经发生,除非从此退出这个游戏,否则就别“跳过这个劫”。 比如初始资金10,在高潮时变成了100, 期间也没提盈,后跌落至5。 这时要继续的话,通常会想到两个选择: A 用这5继续,或顶多入金至一开始起点的10 B 因为经历了100的规模,觉得从5继续太慢/不甘心,所以短时间大量入金继续 我最庆幸的是,自己每次在谷底时都选择了A 资金盈亏的越长期结果,实际上就是自己 真实水平表现的越客观真实评分评级。 如果10变100时,提盈了30变70,再变5, 那么姑且可以认为,自己的水平是“能驾驭35”, 因为客观现实是,你带走了30,加手上还有5。 而不是那个过眼云烟的100。 如果资金从10变100又变5,中间也没提盈, 那么不用多想,说明此时就应该认为, 自己真实水平就是“能驾驭5”,和那个100更没有关系。 这也是大家说的一种“均值回归”: 时间越长,数值越反映真实公允值。 10变100又会变5,中间也没提盈, 说明自己的系统,有对应的盈亏同源的大问题大漏洞, 假如此时短时间立马大量入金,甚至借贷大举入金, 就相当于在试图“跳过付出巨大代价换来的这个劫”, 跳过修复自身漏洞、认识自我强健内心的机会, 这其实同时也就评测反映出了自己身处一种状态: 对自身问题缺乏该有的恐惧、敬畏、尊重, 那么下次、下下次,“劫”依旧会再来找上你。 好比是打游戏,别人送你一个高段位的账号, 不是你自己打上去维持住段位的账号, 你用这个账号打,段位当然就会 “均值回归”到你的真实水平位。 只有自己从低段位打到多少,守住多少, 才是驾驭方法水平和资金规模增减, 两者同步互相应证的, 而之所以还在Crypto这个市场玩, 也是因为在这个市场, 不仅是向下的“均值回归”速度很快, 向上的“均值回归”机会和速度,能比想象的多和快。
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高频的本质是:不断调整,积累优势。
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看到@0xPickleCati 这篇 “日内高频交易是结构性诈骗”雄文, 也看到她在币安实盘上的交易收益曲线各数据, 基本符合她在文中所说的思维: “每个季度做几次交易,你就能挺过去。 每周做10次以上交易? ...高频只有一个最终结果。 毁灭” 但很多人关注我实盘的人,尤其在最近公开API之后, 知道我的交易订单应该是属于平均每周10条以上的, 那么跟她所说的思维是不是完全不同,甚至冲突呢? 表面上好像是,但如果你深入分析,会发现不尽然。 我们从盈亏曲线,和资金曲线上对比看: 图一图二,是两者盈亏曲线, 我把2023年这轮以来,两者的跃迁式盈利, 在曲线上标记1、2、3、4, 可以看到,两者在结构上非常相似, 尤其1-2-3,都显然是通过重仓做多同样的BTC主升浪 (2023年以来的前三个100天主升浪),来获得的。 而在其余时间,无论是PickleCati的“低频思维”, 还是我的“高频交易”下, 在盈亏曲线上都呈现一种“垃圾时间”的表现。 (细节上,哪怕图二上, 我在通过2获取大盈利后,在3到来之前, 捕捉到的震荡收益,也很快圣诞树对称式的回吐) 如果是完全不同的两种思维, (甚至可能交易标的都很不同) 为什么盈亏曲线会如此相似? 回答这个问题之前,再看一下图三图四,两者资金曲线, 图三中,PickleCati的资金曲线果真是如她所说, 做完1-2,先提币离开战场, 做完3,先提币离开战场, 做完4,先提币离开战场。 (后面还有一个小5是同样的,就不标记了) 而图四中,我的资金曲线上,除了2021~2022有提币过, 2022年2月之后,尤其是2023年后,从未提币或离开过战场, 从之前公开的Api数据也可以看到,1-2-3-4至今日, 期间基本都是“每周做10次以上”的高频订单成交。 回到上面的问题, 为什么一个人主张“日内高频是苦海无涯的坑” 另一个人几乎365天都在成交订单, 资金曲线也反映了这种不同, 也都是人工手动交易, 却表现出异曲同工的盈亏曲线? 答案关键在于,如何定义“一次交易”, 我的理解是: PickleCati说的一次交易“Do it one time”, 是一种重仓交易, 用游戏来类比,街霸中的重拳、技能, DOTA LOL 王者荣耀里的,四个技能,耗魔带冷却时间的那种。 她的合约账号风格是: 在战场外-等待观察机会-看到机会-充值入场-放技能-提币离开去战场外。 看图三,70%以上的时间里,她的账号资金处于极低水平位(战场外观察模式),而且你再深入细微看,越后面的这种低水平,还进一步肉眼可见地变更低。 (此处关联推文:xitter.cf/coolish/status/1870780…) 而我虽然365天都在挂单、成交, 但近年来迭代成的合约账号风格是: 一直在战场内-猥琐轻拳/普通攻击打野、补刀兵线、骚扰敌方英雄-体感到机会-放技能-继续在战场内野区兵线猥琐 不知道看到这里,你能否体会两种不同的方式, 却表现出盈亏曲线上殊途同归的原因所在? 大部分人的高频交易,没有足够有意识去区分分配“普通攻击”和“放技能”, 试图通过一直放过大的技能,在实践: “自己其实也不知道,自己在追求客观数学层面,上限离谱的收益率”, 因为如果一直放大技能,都长期保持赢面,数学上就是在预期天文数字的输出结果。 玩过上述提到的游戏的人都知道,放技能的代价,就是露出破绽给敌人, 有些时候,不轻易放大技能,反而是一种核威慑。 而在交易,尤其是Crypto交易这种领域里, 因为人均普遍对单位时间内市场变化的感知过敏, 所以挺多人应该或多或少,或者潜意识里知道: 只要比“原本的自己”更“不轻易放大技能”, 其实也就是大家口中的所谓“耐心”, 就已经是一种优化自己相对于对手盘平均水平的竞争优势edge (关联推文:xitter.cf/coolish/status/1989983…) 竞技体育中也是如此,大的动作,意味着大的前摇、后摇、大的体力消耗、身体不可控的硬直时间等等... 技能、大动作,应该留给,在长时间积累经验后去判断出的, 值得冒险的少部分时间窗、对手盘/市场露出破绽的时间窗, 我之前推文反复提到的BTC 100天周期,就是其中一种提醒自己和大家收放的辅助维度 (xitter.cf/coolish/status/1979124…) 以上仅是针对,追求在市场起伏中获取超额收益思维方面的探讨。
If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading. Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM. This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years. I’ve been trading since I was a teenager. I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together. I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find. I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it. > My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me. > Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move. > ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click. I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me. First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing). > Do it a few times each quarter, you survive. > Do it 10+ times a week? > Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive. Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win. We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome. RUIN. > This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit. > Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping. > And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED. > Pattern is so obvious it hurts. Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money. Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year. > I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord. > It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game. > But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended. > People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability. > The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes. > But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine. This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market. High frequency only works inside institutions. > Take US equities for example. > Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView. > They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see. Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use. And that’s the real danger. > If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away. > But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop. > You keep clicking until the market empties you completely. It really is just like a casino in disguise. > When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into. > You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling. > But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP. > New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly. So they don’t stop. That’s the whole tragedy. Not the losing. The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose. > And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move. > They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win. And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail. It’s not hard to make money in trading. It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.
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我的绝对领域是中线大结构机会 容错率、赔率都很高 A股:股指期货、期权 美股:股指期货、个股、个股期权 大饼:中线 这三大市场,已经足够我吃了 唯一的弱点是贪 想一口气吃饱 代价就是一下子踩到大坑几年爬不出
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对于个人来说 每次重仓all in必输 几选一中必选差的 perp赛道 如果平衡,反而能获得最佳回报 单压一个,反而是最差的结果 没有滔天的强运 那只能分散 让运均匀的分散在每一份机会里 走稳路
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技术形态上来说,必有一笔反抽 但这里钝刀子杀人太惨烈 分批建仓,这里很难亏钱 币圈的波动很强 因此,耐心等极端机会反而是个好策略 因为机会很廉价 不要怕错过 机会很廉价 不要怕错过 等属于自己的
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对赚钱的心得二: 只做一阶导数 坚决不做二阶导数 一定要简单粗暴高效 比如只u本位,千万不要币本位 简洁才能高效 简洁的才是正确的 很多歧路 都是开始的错
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对赚钱的心得一: 找到属于自己的节奏和方式 仓位管理和精力管理很重要 在自己的绝对领域赚该赚的钱 运气的钱看运气不要过分强求
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还记得你何时加入 X 吗?我知道!#我的X周年纪念日
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我现在才开始对meme慢慢有点开窍接受 原来是自己落后了好几个版本 只能说自己固执、迟钝、愚蠢
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勿忘初心 初心就是赚快钱!
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Send Nodes!!!🚀
NodeStrategy 10/6/25 NodeStrategy has acquired 100 NodeMonkes for 7.38 BTC at an average price of 0.0738 BTC each. As of 10/6/2025, the treasury holds 29.56 BTC + 101 NodeMonkes, all committed to accelerating the flywheel and expanding the ecosystem. Send Nodes $NODESTR
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