NEW: William Contreras is the favorite to win World Series MVP, via Kalshi: 36% — William Contreras 18% — Aaron Ashby 16% — Jackson Chourio 5.4% — Sal Frelick 3.6% — Junior Caminero 3.5% — Jacob Misiorowski 3.2% — Jonathan Aranda 2.9% — Jake Bauers 2.1% — Freddy Peralta

He’s just not a good player

GAMEDAY: The Brewers have a 64% chance on Kalshi to win the World Series over the Rays. Make your pick now — who will be World Champs?

No house, but I have a home @Kalshi

NEW: There is over a 50% chance that Jarren Duran is moved this offseason, via Kalshi. $100 on Duran to be on the Red Sox by Opening Day pays out $205.45. What team would be the best fit for the Red Sox OF?

Sam LaPorta on not receiving an extension from Detroit: "You know, like last year, whatever it was, Week 9, Week 10, you know, I break my f*king back for the team and then I'm going out there this year and I'm balling and maybe they're just not showing the love ... And in three months, if I don't get to wear the Honolulu blue and play for the Lions anymore, it's going to be all good. I'll go get paid somewhere else." (@PardonMyTake)

Hit a hole-in-one. Free mattresses if the team wins. You went to an insurance company that specialized in calculating the odds. That was probably until 2006. Then it moved to Las Vegas, where ticket brokers holding inventory for one team would bet against that team to hedge. Then, by 2018, it moved to online sportsbooks. Now it's happening on prediction markets. An LA-based restaurant group put $60,000 on Kalshi before the NLCS that the Dodgers would lose to the Brewers. Why? They calculated that a Dodgers World Series run would bring in an extra $120,000. No run, $0. So they hedged. Guaranteed $60,000 either way. The Dodgers lost. The $60,000 grossed $120,000. Why an exchange and not a sportsbook? At a sportsbook, your price is locked. The only way out is a cash-out, and that number is set by the book's algorithm. On an exchange, there's thousands of competing buyers on the other side. The price moves. It's a reflection of the market, and you can take it or leave it at any point. The speculators who believed the Dodgers would win provided the liquidity the sportsbook never did. Marketplaces like Kalshi are giving businesses the exchange that prize indemnity and sportsbooks never could. Because the other side is real.