Gold & Silver Olympic medalist (London 2012). USC Trojan. Thoughts are my own.

Geneva, Switzerland
Joined September 2011
Lefert Clement 🇫🇷 retweeted
Dans un pays normal ça serait lui le favori pour 2027
💬 "Aujourd'hui si je veux augmenter un de mes salariés de 100 euros, je vais payer 300 euros" Patrick Pouyanné, PDG de TotalEnergies, appelle à ce que "le système de charges favorise le travail" #BFM2
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Looks like a range finder from the Italian warship.
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Gasoil crack to Brent fp ratio... impressive!!
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Hist wave of producer flow (via swap dealer) gave liquidity to specs and capped rally. Now specs stopping out into merchant buying (inventory hedges lifted as we draw stocks). PM buying is constant as long as we draw western commercial storage but not enough to match spec selling
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Too much hype too early and now too complacent?
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Polymarket probabilities of US strikes on Iran before 31st March (white) and 30th June (blue) vs. rolling 3m 25d calls
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1- Too many people use the recent correlation in between managed money (CTAs) and oil prices.. but they forget that in 2014, managed money length bottoms at $92/bbl brent and we still went to $28/bbl... that is partly because of inventory hedging during large oversupply periods
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2- it works well in slightly balanced markets (2023-2024), but already you can see a decoupling in 2025 (+1.2mbd oversupply) and that oversupply was mostly out of western commercial storage
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3- if a good chunk of the 2026 build appears in western storage, you can get much lower prices at low managed money positioning as phys sell futures to hedge tanks. Ps: CTAs exist because they do make money at times...
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Venezuela: My personal opinion is that what the US did is a good thing. “International law” is not there to protect criminal gangs once they took over countries. Venezuela was already invaded by all types of criminal groups. The Venezuelan people have been hostages for 25 years. There is now hope for freedom for them. There is so much upside for that country and its people if its potential is unleashed. The “special military operation” was a clear success. It was fast with very little collateral damage. Maduro out. Now the big question is who will replace him? Trump says the US will run it until a proper democratic transition can happen. This sounds good. But then he does not support Machado (Nobel peace prize winner for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela, and who won the primary of the opposition in 2023 but then barred to run for president), and I doubt he has much appetite to keep many boots on the ground to make the transition successful. I hope he will go all the way, and not stop too early, so that there could be a real change for the better. It would be good for Venezuelan people, Venezuela, and it would weaken the Russian and Iranian regimes further, and China to some extent too, and many criminal groups. There is more upside than downside. How much upside will depend on how it is executed over time.
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Lefert Clement 🇫🇷 retweeted
Given the global oil OI exploded higher in dec, it’s fair to think mkt is mostly positioned via short spreads/short fp vs long calls. A grind higher with Venz tightening bal met by strong prod flow (selling back end and calls) would hurt most.
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Lefert Clement 🇫🇷 retweeted
Replying to @UnintendedCons5
Rolling 2m 35dc -15dc vs Brent inverted. The market has decided to play it via the call skew rather than the flat price so far… the skew move is very similar to the move on Russian sanctions expect futures barely moved so far
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Explains why he wants lower prices and lower interest rates.. $100m to refi in 2025 and $500m in 2026..
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Lefert Clement 🇫🇷 retweeted
The Non-OPEC Crude+Cond ex US production outlook for the next 12 months is kind of surprising looking at the previous trend: +1.4m🛢/d Especially when taking into account the international rig count↘️ peakoilbarrel.com/november-n… xitter.cf/jorge_moj/status/18979…
Feb-2025 Baker Hughes oil🛢Rig Count: "🌍excluding US🇺🇸+Canada🇨🇦" ➡️ 665 ➡️ Month over month: -2 ➡️ y-o-year: -64‼️ Around 750 rigs to keep oil production from declining (historical performance ex-NA) ➡️ Now -10%⬇️ Low CapEx could imply🌎🛢breakeven por producers is ⬆️75$ Brent
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Lefert Clement 🇫🇷 retweeted
BREAKING: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith just completely obliterated Trump on his trade war, telling Canadians that Alberta holds a “Trump card” that is could potentially devastate American energy. Trump is losing this trade war.
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