Seminario imperdible mañana: clivar.org/events/prp-enso-w…

Big El Niño? The window is closing. June’s westerly wind bursts may decide everything. Yes, the ocean looks a lot like early 1997: warm water expanding east across the equatorial Pacific, Kelvin wave warming lighting up the South American coast. But El Niño is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. And the atmosphere is not cooperating. By late May 1997, a major westerly wind burst was already ripping across the western Pacific, helping tip the system into the strongest El Niño on record. This year? Nothing of the sort. No sustained WWB so far. If anything, the opposite — a possibility some 2-week weather forecasts were already flagging when NOAA issued NOAA’s May outlook. That doesn’t mean a big El Niño is off the table. It means caution is still warranted when using 1997 as an analog, because the next few weeks matter a lot. Surface maps can look similar. Forecast outcomes can still diverge sharply.