🌜🌏RIO MAXWELL🌏🌛

Comes down to: Iran will escalate, not capitulate.

Let's assume for sake of argument that "Iranian leaders aren’t like the Taliban; they like money, pomp and power. Today they are hurting" and, before N Korea or Cuba, the Land of Cyrus the Great, having already withstood decades of sanctions, capitulate security concessions to the US in negotiations. This would leave IRGC with neither a nuclear hedge or Hormuz Weapon with which to deter a USrael future attack. In other words capitulation simply leads to a worse, far more existential outcome. Instead, once regime change in US has been achieved next week, IRGC won't permit daily escalation via a siege. Iran will retaliatite against an adversary short of interceptors, and over time the price of sulfur, urea & di-ammonium phosphate as well as oil & LNG will rise. In a globalised economy, not even the US will be immune. If that situation were to devolve, the consequences of an escalation spiral past the point-of-no-return are well documented, and in real terms would be more catastrophic for US. Unless I'm missing something the @ProfTalmadge-nostication that US can simply wait it out and expect success, sounds half-baked. When she caveats "while thinking through where we can be somewhat flexible in negotiations with Iran someday" deep down she senses that too.