"That thing that rich people do where they turn money into more money. Can you teach me how to do that, Jack?” - Tina Fey, 30 Rock Jack, “With my eyes closed.”
Lhasa, Tibet
Joined June 2020
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I’ve been blessed to spend time with many of the world’s great investors.
20 years ago, I made a point to hunt down the best. Many are now popular on Fintwit - Nick Sleep, Li Lu, Chuck Akre. Others should be - Chris Hohn, Larry Robbins, and more.
For🎄: 12 lessons I learned🧵👇
Brazil Election Chaos Cheat Sheet:
• Brazil provides free busing to and from voting centers
• In order to be deemed neutral, those buses are not allowed to have any political signs, etc
• In several states that skew toward Lula, the buses had "PT" stars affixed to them (PT is Lula's party). The official in charge of busing said those buses could not run unless the signs were taken down, delaying the busing. Lots of finger-pointing ensued
• There is an election tribunal in Brazil that oversees election legal issues, but Lula went around it and appealed directly to the Supreme Court
• The SC assigns a single justice to review; Lula asked for an extension specifically IN THOSE STATES (which heavily skew toward Lula)
• The Justice who made the decision was previously Lula's PERSONAL LAWYER and is a Lula appointee
• Once Bolsonaro knew Lula was asking for extensions and suspected it would be granted (given which justice was reviewing), he also requested extensions so they would be nationwide, and not just in Lula territory
• A nationwide extension was granted just AFTER the polling stations were supposed to close (5:00pm). However, once a voting machine is locked for the day, it cannot be unlocked. In practice, this meant most polling stations were not able to reopen and offer extended voting because they'd closed at 5pm
• By an AMAZING coincidence, nearly all of the voting machines that hadn't yet locked were in the four states where Lula polls well over 70% popularity (northeast)
• There are supposed to be two observers (one from each side) at all polling stations. At many of the extended stations, the word is there were not two observers
• In the first round voting (three weeks ago), Bolsonaro won 47% and Lula 45% of 119mm votes, with ~8% to third-party candidates
• Of the 8%, the candidates skewed strongly to the right (Bolsonaro); everyone assumed Bolsonaro would take the large majority of that 8% and win easily in round two (yesterday)
• As it turned out, Lula "outperformed" in basically every state
• Also, apparently 5 million more people voted in round two (yesterday) than in round one
• Lula picked up 10.5mm votes, whereas Bolsonaro picked up 3.7mm, leading to tremendous suspicion, as 3.7mm isn't even the majority of the 8% right-leaning opportunity from round one, and implies Bolsonaro received 0% of the incremental 5 million votes and less than half of the jump ball votes
• Chaos ensues. The $EWZ Brazil index ETF has been down as much as 28% this morning (mix of currency and index declines)
Along those lines:
xitter.cf/visegrad24/status/2114…
Don’t worry, everything is cool and nothing is f*cked down in Brazil. 🇧🇷
Bear in mind that Justice Moraes and his family are in the midst of a dramatic corruption scandal and he would likely be impeached if Bolsonaro won…
Brazil Election Chaos Cheat Sheet:
• Brazil provides free busing to and from voting centers
• In order to be deemed neutral, those buses are not allowed to have any political signs, etc
• In several states that skew toward Lula, the buses had "PT" stars affixed to them (PT is Lula's party). The official in charge of busing said those buses could not run unless the signs were taken down, delaying the busing. Lots of finger-pointing ensued
• There is an election tribunal in Brazil that oversees election legal issues, but Lula went around it and appealed directly to the Supreme Court
• The SC assigns a single justice to review; Lula asked for an extension specifically IN THOSE STATES (which heavily skew toward Lula)
• The Justice who made the decision was previously Lula's PERSONAL LAWYER and is a Lula appointee
• Once Bolsonaro knew Lula was asking for extensions and suspected it would be granted (given which justice was reviewing), he also requested extensions so they would be nationwide, and not just in Lula territory
• A nationwide extension was granted just AFTER the polling stations were supposed to close (5:00pm). However, once a voting machine is locked for the day, it cannot be unlocked. In practice, this meant most polling stations were not able to reopen and offer extended voting because they'd closed at 5pm
• By an AMAZING coincidence, nearly all of the voting machines that hadn't yet locked were in the four states where Lula polls well over 70% popularity (northeast)
• There are supposed to be two observers (one from each side) at all polling stations. At many of the extended stations, the word is there were not two observers
• In the first round voting (three weeks ago), Bolsonaro won 47% and Lula 45% of 119mm votes, with ~8% to third-party candidates
• Of the 8%, the candidates skewed strongly to the right (Bolsonaro); everyone assumed Bolsonaro would take the large majority of that 8% and win easily in round two (yesterday)
• As it turned out, Lula "outperformed" in basically every state
• Also, apparently 5 million more people voted in round two (yesterday) than in round one
• Lula picked up 10.5mm votes, whereas Bolsonaro picked up 3.7mm, leading to tremendous suspicion, as 3.7mm isn't even the majority of the 8% right-leaning opportunity from round one, and implies Bolsonaro received 0% of the incremental 5 million votes and less than half of the jump ball votes
• Chaos ensues. The $EWZ Brazil index ETF has been down as much as 28% this morning (mix of currency and index declines)
👀 😂😅🥹🥲😭🌶️
>be Lula
>get convicted of corruption
>get sentenced to 12 years
>get released by the STF on procedural errors
>never actually acquitted lmao
>beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022
>Jair gets thrown into jail over an alleged coup attempt
>Congress votes to cut his sentence
>Lula vetoes it
>four years later, face his son
>during a debate, threaten to also lock him up if he loses the election
>election day
>former private lawyer, now STF judge, extends voting by 2 hours nationwide
>request came from Lula's own coalition
>win by 4 million votes in a runoff with no paper trail
>next day, Moraes orders the losing candidate to surrender his passports
>victory speech: "we're going to regulate social media"
>"democracy" lmao
>RIP Brazil
Compound248 💰 retweeted
This is a good synopsis
Brazil Election Chaos Cheat Sheet:
• Brazil provides free busing to and from voting centers
• In order to be deemed neutral, those buses are not allowed to have any political signs, etc
• In several states that skew toward Lula, the buses had "PT" stars affixed to them (PT is Lula's party). The official in charge of busing said those buses could not run unless the signs were taken down, delaying the busing. Lots of finger-pointing ensued
• There is an election tribunal in Brazil that oversees election legal issues, but Lula went around it and appealed directly to the Supreme Court
• The SC assigns a single justice to review; Lula asked for an extension specifically IN THOSE STATES (which heavily skew toward Lula)
• The Justice who made the decision was previously Lula's PERSONAL LAWYER and is a Lula appointee
• Once Bolsonaro knew Lula was asking for extensions and suspected it would be granted (given which justice was reviewing), he also requested extensions so they would be nationwide, and not just in Lula territory
• A nationwide extension was granted just AFTER the polling stations were supposed to close (5:00pm). However, once a voting machine is locked for the day, it cannot be unlocked. In practice, this meant most polling stations were not able to reopen and offer extended voting because they'd closed at 5pm
• By an AMAZING coincidence, nearly all of the voting machines that hadn't yet locked were in the four states where Lula polls well over 70% popularity (northeast)
• There are supposed to be two observers (one from each side) at all polling stations. At many of the extended stations, the word is there were not two observers
• In the first round voting (three weeks ago), Bolsonaro won 47% and Lula 45% of 119mm votes, with ~8% to third-party candidates
• Of the 8%, the candidates skewed strongly to the right (Bolsonaro); everyone assumed Bolsonaro would take the large majority of that 8% and win easily in round two (yesterday)
• As it turned out, Lula "outperformed" in basically every state
• Also, apparently 5 million more people voted in round two (yesterday) than in round one
• Lula picked up 10.5mm votes, whereas Bolsonaro picked up 3.7mm, leading to tremendous suspicion, as 3.7mm isn't even the majority of the 8% right-leaning opportunity from round one, and implies Bolsonaro received 0% of the incremental 5 million votes and less than half of the jump ball votes
• Chaos ensues. The $EWZ Brazil index ETF has been down as much as 28% this morning (mix of currency and index declines)
I want to hate on Anthropic, but that S-1 is incredible.
Is it actually cash flow positive?
Not really, but close.
Is the governance fair?
No. You should vomit on it. Reject it with every bone in your body.
Do I trust them?
No.
THAT SAID, what an unbelievable business.
Compound248 💰 retweeted
Good concise summary of the sketchy things in Brazil.
I can add to some of the points:
*Brazil has a court specifically devoted to election decisions
*Lula bypassed that court and instead filed a motion with the Supreme Court, magically heard by a justice who previously was Lula's personal criminal defense lawyer before being appointed by Lula. He ordered the time extension.
*The elections court, headed by a Bolsonaro Sr. appointee, might nullify the election based on these events
Brazil Election Chaos Cheat Sheet:
• Brazil provides free busing to and from voting centers
• In order to be deemed neutral, those buses are not allowed to have any political signs, etc
• In several states that skew toward Lula, the buses had "PT" stars affixed to them (PT is Lula's party). The official in charge of busing said those buses could not run unless the signs were taken down, delaying the busing. Lots of finger-pointing ensued
• There is an election tribunal in Brazil that oversees election legal issues, but Lula went around it and appealed directly to the Supreme Court
• The SC assigns a single justice to review; Lula asked for an extension specifically IN THOSE STATES (which heavily skew toward Lula)
• The Justice who made the decision was previously Lula's PERSONAL LAWYER and is a Lula appointee
• Once Bolsonaro knew Lula was asking for extensions and suspected it would be granted (given which justice was reviewing), he also requested extensions so they would be nationwide, and not just in Lula territory
• A nationwide extension was granted just AFTER the polling stations were supposed to close (5:00pm). However, once a voting machine is locked for the day, it cannot be unlocked. In practice, this meant most polling stations were not able to reopen and offer extended voting because they'd closed at 5pm
• By an AMAZING coincidence, nearly all of the voting machines that hadn't yet locked were in the four states where Lula polls well over 70% popularity (northeast)
• There are supposed to be two observers (one from each side) at all polling stations. At many of the extended stations, the word is there were not two observers
• In the first round voting (three weeks ago), Bolsonaro won 47% and Lula 45% of 119mm votes, with ~8% to third-party candidates
• Of the 8%, the candidates skewed strongly to the right (Bolsonaro); everyone assumed Bolsonaro would take the large majority of that 8% and win easily in round two (yesterday)
• As it turned out, Lula "outperformed" in basically every state
• Also, apparently 5 million more people voted in round two (yesterday) than in round one
• Lula picked up 10.5mm votes, whereas Bolsonaro picked up 3.7mm, leading to tremendous suspicion, as 3.7mm isn't even the majority of the 8% right-leaning opportunity from round one, and implies Bolsonaro received 0% of the incremental 5 million votes and less than half of the jump ball votes
• Chaos ensues. The $EWZ Brazil index ETF has been down as much as 28% this morning (mix of currency and index declines)
Compound248 💰 retweeted
😬
Brazil index -20% in USD overnight. 👀
Yowza. $EWZ
Records were meant to be broken.
$EWZ: worst days prior to today. 👇
Indicating -26% rn.
Brace for impact.
-26% $EWZ
Totally normal and not sketchy.
Things are happening in Brazil right now: a Supreme Court justice extended the election in the states where Lula (the left) historically wins.
Oh, and this supreme justice was appointed by Lula and was previously Lula’s lawyer… 🇧🇷
From a smart Brazilian friend of mine (who is from an area of Brazil that is mixed in its support).
