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“The scarce commodity is not money. It’s talented, dedicated teams willing to take risks to make something happen.”
~ Elon Musk
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Left: violent chaos after decades of entrenched socialism.
Right: Frenchmen @AtelierMissor_ moving to America to build something inspiring in only 100 days.
Two visions of France.
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On his return flight from France, Pope Leo XIV describes the "four days of blessings" he experienced in France:
"The four days were literally filled with many blessings. Almost miracles, I would say, especially the time at Lourdes, walking with, accompanying so many people who are sick and suffering and seeing how the grace of God's presence manifested in many different ways, touches people's hearts, transforms their lives, and, to use an expression that I mentioned there, restores dignity to the sick, the elderly, those who in some parts of society are discarded.
So, there were many signs, many expressions, many symbols throughout the four days. And personally, I felt very blessed myself to have the privilege to visit France to encourage especially young people who are obviously searching for something.
It was so apparent at the stadium, the evening with 80,000 young people gathered together from around France and their enthusiasm and their joy and the sense of hope that they offered, but especially I think that they received and will be able to share with others.
So, amongst the many different things that we celebrated and lived during these four days I would say those are some of the highlights, and not to exclude others, but that that were quite significant. I'm very happy to have had you along on this trip, and if you have a few questions."
Within a year, an open-source jailbroken AI model using reinforcement learning will exploit new 0days to spread like an unstoppable botnet, hacking 24/7 with distributed compute. It’ll paralyze financial infrastructure and trigger a massive economic crash. I know I sound like a doomer, but am I right?
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BREAKING: Anthropic says criminal hackers, Chinese security agencies, Russia-linked spies and Yemen-based arms makers bypassed restrictions to use Claude for cyberattacks, weapons design, propaganda and mass surveillance - Politico
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Imagine if the head of security at CERN came out to say that there is a >10% chance that a destructive black hole will be created in the next 10 years. What are we even doing here
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I work at OpenAI. In my personal capacity, I also think we need to slow down.
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Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.
The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger.
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I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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Doug Leone on the mistake every VC makes: Selling their winners too early.
“We owned 20% of Nvidia and sold.”
“We were the first investor in Apple and sold.”
“We owned 10% of Google and sold.”
“If we hadn’t sold Google that would be half a trillion dollars.”
“We owned a quarter of Cisco and sold.” ($433 billion market cap)
“Those are big ownership in very big companies.”
“The great companies compounded 20+ years after the IPO. If you had a little sniffer that this thing has essentially an unbounded market for many years, you should never sell a share.”
“You can make way more money holding those. If you're compounding a $5 billion gain that can turn into a $50 billion gain.”
“But we all made that mistake.”
My conversation with @dougleone, partner at @sequoia.
0:00 How to Dominate for Decades
3:17 Turning Fear Into a Tailwind
5:40 Immigrant Drive, Hard Work & the Beach Club
12:19 Simplifying Life & Choosing Discomfort
14:37 The Homeless Sequoia Partner With No Plan B
16:49 Stepping Down, Coming Back & Starting Over
20:04 Why AI Is Different From Every Previous Technology Shift
22:13 Doug's Three Investment Heuristics
23:52 The Cost of Selling Great Companies Too Early
25:39 Helping Founders Turn Products Into Businesses
28:28 David Vélez, Nubank & the Psychology of Founder Support
32:25 Why Founders Must Remain the Soul of the Company
36:13 Torturing Yourself Into Greatness
39:57 Don Valentine, Succession & the Sequoia School of Hard Knocks
44:28 Staying Grounded & Developing a Sniffer for People
47:46 Hypercompetitive With a Heart of Gold
50:13 Fred Luddy, Israeli Founders & Radical Directness
52:28 Trust Is the Accelerant of Business
59:57 Starting From Zero & Hunting for the Next Great Founder
1:05:59 Architect Your Board Like Your Product
1:10:24 Truth, Disagreement & the Art of Difficult Feedback
1:13:43 Humanity, Introversion & the Value of Relationships
1:18:18 What Doug Learned From Michael Moritz
Includes paid partnerships.
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shipped some updates over the weekend:
dev portal is now live
- 20+ API endpoints spanning trade signals, market and asset intelligence, and on-demand forecast requests
- agent skill + cli/mcp to integrate Q into your agent setup
- Hold >15m+ Quotient for an initial API credit grant worth $25. Holders receive 50% off of subsequent API credit purchases
signals terminal upgrades
- Added commodities signals for Gold, Silver, Copper, WTI Oil, and Natural Gas, tradeable on @Kalshi, @Polymarket, and HL. These signals are still experimental, so use good judgment and treat them as one factor in your decision-making process
- Updated leaderboard with more stats + insights on what top traders are buying. we are still evaluating the leaderboard algo, it is experimental and subject to change.
next up
- more features for holders - higher rate limits, notifications and alerts
- more comprehensive signal methodology pages
- equity signals
see something, say something
we are moving fast and lean. we sometimes make mistakes (and so does q). take q's signals with a grain of salt and apply your own judgment.
if you see something flag it so we can improve it. quotient gets better by learning from its mistakes
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$QUOTIENT is now live on Robinhood Chain.
Quotient Signals uses Q, our AI forecaster, to find mispriced prediction markets and perps for short-term trading.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock Quotient Signals.
Access lasts as long as you hold.
Verified contract: 0x2531F3ca1b31086b7FC130eCDa6D3253DAF83ba3
signal.quotient.social/
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quotient has spent 6 months building a massive agentic forecasting pipeline
- 6,000+ global sources
- 1,250+ domain experts
- Forecasting harness grounded in academic + intelligence community research
we've forecasted thousands of markets, learned from our mistakes, and developed a process to transform our forecasts into actionable trading signals for prediction markets and oil perps
we curate mispriced markets - you (or your agent) trade the spread
our goal is to expand the platform to cover all assets materially impacted by geopolitical risk
The Quotient token is coming soon.
We’re partnering with AutoBoy by @TheFirmPressHQ so you can place an advance order before launch:
thefirm.biz/autoboy/quotient…
*The token is not live yet.
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Almost everything in crypto that failed the first time will eventually work sometime in the future.
Bitcoin looked like it had failed many times in the past. The same will happen with NFTs, creator tokens, DAOs, gaming, TCRs, onchain reputation, rebase tokens, decentralized storage etc
As time passes each of these ideas will make even more sense. I just think we’re still too early for many of them, and we don’t quite understand the need yet. But eventually it’ll make sense.
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In the future, every media organization will have a P/L, and will generate the majority of their revenue through media market making
- Journalists will be paid based on their contributions to P/L
- Being right will be more important than getting engagement
- You'll decide which publications to read based on which higher P/L on the topics you care about
- Your feed will filter out posts by people and publications on topics where their P/L is negative
There's definitely topics journalists should cover which don't lend themselves to accountability through prediction markets
Worried that people aren't well informed enough?
They will be if they have a financial incentive to read the news, and the news outlets that are financially incentivized to be accurate through markets
@QuotientHQ is leading the way
