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controlled confidence, compounded

tomorrow
Joined November 2021
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The winners are not the ones who know the most about AI. They’re the ones who leverage AI to amplify their human strengths: Judgment Empathy Creativity Strategy Meaning-making Leadership AI lifts the ceiling. Humans decide what to build under it.
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control^3 retweeted
Follow the free cash flow Microsoft: +$18.6B last quarter Meta: -$1.2B Alphabet: -$9.1B Cash burners are getting punished
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BREAKING: Intel stock, $INTC, crashes over -22% after reporting weaker than expected earnings. Intel blamed weak earnings on "softness in the PC market."
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Communication Services stocks are under severe pressure: The Communication Services ETF, $XLC, underperformed the S&P 500 by -6.3 percentage points over 5 trading days ending October 27th, its largest 5-day underperformance since November 2022. This also marks its 3rd-biggest 5-day relative decline in 19 years. This comes as $XLC has fallen in 8 of the last 9 sessions, losing a total of -8.3%, and is trading at its lowest level since June 2025. Communication services stocks are now heading for their 3rd consecutive weekly decline. As a result, $XLC is down -11.6% year-to-date, putting it on track for its first annual drop since 2022. The Communication Services sector has become extremely oversold.
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control^3 retweeted
PCE Price Index comes in hot in September … +0.491% monthly gain was the second largest we’ve seen going back to 2022
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September PCE #inflation (blue) +3.6% y/y vs. +3.6% est. & +3.4% prior … core PCE (orange) +3.1% vs. +3.1% est. & +3.0% prior
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control^3 retweeted
“17 loans with a balance of $614.8 million were resolved in September, generating $422.8 million in losses, for an aggregate loss severity of 68.78% That compares with August, when eight loans with a balance of $128.8 were resolved, resulting in $83.6 million in losses”
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control^3 retweeted
US Q3 GDP first estimate 3.4%, Exp. 3.2%, Q2 was 2.2% Personal Consumption 3.8%, Exp. 3.4%, Q2 was 3.8%
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control^3 retweeted
PCE 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.5% PCE 3.6% YoY, Exp. 3.6% PCE Core 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE Core 3.1% YoY, Exp. 3.1%
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The mortgage market's severe recession is getting worse It's one of the worst downturns in mortgage market history --> Mortgage purchase apps are back to hovering around the lowest levels in 3 decades Chart via @ResiClub_HQ
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control^3 retweeted
*WARSH: IT'S OUR RESPONSIBILITY TO GET INFLATION DOWN *WARSH: FED BELIEVES MORE INFORMATION WILL HELP DETERMINE STANCE *WARSH: COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY
*WARSH: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH *WARSH: OUR JOB TO ENSURE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ANCHORED *WARSH: MUST ENSURE RELATIVE PRICE CHANGES DON'T BROADEN OUT
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control^3 retweeted
*FED VOTES 10-2 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.75%-4% RANGE *FED: ACCUMULATION OF MORE INFO WILL HELP DETERMINE POLICY *FED: COOK AND HAMMACK DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE
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Regional Fed manufacturing and services surveys show price pressures may have eased a touch, but they remain elevated. A small victory, though these levels still suggest higher inflation in the coming months.
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U.S. rental vacancy rate Rental slack continues to build on a nationally aggregated basis
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control^3 retweeted
Lumber falls to lowest price in more than 2 years 📉📉
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Is China hiding its true exposure to US Treasuries? China’s Treasury holdings fell -$27 billion in August, to $591 billion, their lowest level since August 2008. At the same time, Canada’s holdings of US Treasuries jumped +$38 billion in August, to $465 billion, their 3rd-highest on record. Since the beginning of 2019, Canada’s holdings have surged +$369 billion, or +384%, while China’s have declined -$534 billion, or -48%. This divergence may partly reflect China moving its US securities to foreign custodians, making its actual exposure to American debt appear smaller and creating the impression of faster financial decoupling from the US Dollar. Meanwhile, Belgium and Luxembourg, widely believed to hold some Chinese Treasury assets through custodial accounts, increased their Treasury holdings by +$20 billion and +$6 billion in August, to all-time highs of $491 billion and $448 billion, respectively. China’s diversification away from the US Dollar may be slower than it appears.
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 excluding AI stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 by +6.4 percentage points so far in October, on track for the best relative monthly performance on record. This marks a sharp reversal from underperformance of -5.1 percentage points in the prior month, the 2nd-worst on record. By comparison, the previous largest outperformance was recorded in July at +3.6 percentage points. Over the last 3 weeks alone, the S&P 500 ex-AI has outperformed the S&P 500 by +7.4 percentage points, the widest 3-week spread on record. So far in 2026, relative performance has been extremely volatile, with the S&P 500 ex-AI outperforming for 4 months and the S&P 500 for 6. Investors are cashing in massive profits from the AI trade.
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Equity financing costs have decreased significantly since they spiked around the SpaceX IPO and other equity raises. Now down near four-year lows, it will be interesting to see if the Anthropic IPO pushes these higher again.
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September new home sales fell -0.6% m/m vs. -4.5% est. & +5.1% prior (revised down from +6.4%) … median new home price +3.9% m/m to $400,400; average selling price at $472,800
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October Consumer Confidence Index from @Conferenceboard rose to 91.7 vs 81.0 est. & 84.2 prior (revised up from 81.9); present situation 120.4 vs 111.8 prior; expectations 72.6 vs. 65.7 prior
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