Options on prediction markets | Trade calls and puts on event probabilities Backed by @alliance
Joined February 2026
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Convallax testnet is now live!
The first options exchange on prediction markets.
Trade calls and puts on event probabilities
Prediction markets made outcomes tradable. Convallax makes the probability itself an underlying.
A whole new era of trading market belief is here!
Prediction markets are creating a new class of tradable risk. We believe an entire derivatives market will develop around event probabilities, with options at its core.
That’s the future we’re building at Convallax.
Proud to be part of ALL17. Thank you @alliancedao for backing this vision.
Introducing @convallax (ALL17), an options exchange for prediction markets.
Traders can buy calls and puts on Polymarket outcomes, taking leveraged positions on how the odds change over a chosen timeframe.
Congratulations to @rahul_rai121 and @kushal_mungee on the launch.
Polymarket turned information into a price. Convallax turns that price into an underlying.
Once a probability is liquid enough to trade, it can support calls, puts, hedges, expiries and volatility.
A single event market can become an entire derivatives market with Convallax!
A trader can have a $500k Polymarket position and still have no clean way to hedge it without selling.
That’s crazy for a market this big.
Leverage through options is only half the story.
Convallax is also building the risk management layer Polymarket is still missing.
Robinhood is launching event contracts on company KPIs: earnings, revenue targets, and key financial milestones.
The lines are blurring between tradfi equity markets and onchain prediction markets
Convallax is building what comes even further: calls and puts on the probabilities around those events.
Very early. Very first.
ICYMI: Robinhood made a massive splash with new products and updates yesterday at HOOD Summit.
Live now:
- Robinhood Agents (AI that researches, builds strategies, and can trade for you)
- Agent Apps (plug-ins from ~11 data/tool partners)
- Crypto perpetuals (up to 10x on BTC/ETH; 3x on SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE)
- Take profit / stop loss (OCO-style equity orders)
- Robinhood Social out of beta for eligible US customers
Coming later:
- 24/7 weekend equity trading (early next year)
- Extended options hours
- Intraday buying power (up to 4x)
- Earnings experience in-app
- Earnings prediction contracts (needs regulatory approval)
- Agents + Social on Legend
Very bullish day one.
$HOOD
@RobinhoodApp @therollupco
Kalshi is moving toward margin on long-dated contracts because fully funded YES/NO markets get capital-inefficient with size.
Options solve it differently: pay a small premium, trade the move whilst customizing your payoff profile
Prediction markets are evolving and leverage is the obvious next layer!
Few.
We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories.
We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption so far.
Capital efficiency has been the biggest bottleneck for institutions, and margin is the single most requested feature. Fully collateralizing long-dated contracts ties up substantial capital for months or years, making participation impractical for many institutions. It is very difficult for a large institutional market to develop without margin.
Margin addresses that problem by reducing capital requirements, subject to strict risk standards.
Some important characteristics of our proposal:
• Margin applies only to a narrow set of categories, excluding sports and culture.
• It is geared toward institutions and subject to strict eligibility requirements.
• The risk methodology is modeled on approaches used by established clearinghouses and tested over decades. It incorporates conservative safeguards around volatility, liquidity, concentration, and event risks, as well as measures to limit sharp increases in margin requirements during market stress.
The goal is a better trading experience for users. Greater capital efficiency enables more institutional participation, bringing deeper liquidity and better pricing. That makes our markets more attractive to more traders, whose participation further strengthens liquidity and improves the experience for everyone.
And prediction markets will have their own version of this.
Perps unlocked leverage for crypto.
Options will unlock leverage, hedging, and volatility for event markets.
This primitive barely exists today.
Convallax is building it!
Trade the Clarity Act market via options on Convallax.
Buy a PUT option if you are bearish or a CALL option if you are bullish on the Clarity Act being signed into law.
DM for access codes! Only a few spots available before we officially begin rolling them out.
Will the Senate advance the CLARITY Act today?
This vote could have a major impact on the polymarket "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?"
There’s no consensus among traders:
@aenews and @Domahhhh are on the Yes side. A successful vote today would move the bill one step further in the Senate.
Meanwhile, tourists, @evan_semet and @MEPPonPM are on the No side, expecting a tougher path for the CLARITY Act.
Convallax community is OPEN 🚀
Telegram + Discord are now live for everyone!
All product updates, and Early Access codes will drop in the groups
Early access = test the product, share feedback, and get future perks.
Join in: 👇🏻
t.me/convallax
discord.com/invite/tnQPbRw5v…
Convallax retweeted
Prediction markets are one of the few places that turn a private opinion into a public good
If you think an election is closer than the polls say, you can put money on it, and by doing so you reveal something useful to everyone else (especially once this happens in aggregate)
Prediction markets price event odds.
Options on prediction markets price how much those odds may move before resolution.
Convallax is building the implied volatility surface for events: the VIX for elections, rate decisions, sports, war, policy, and everything in between.
August volume numbers:
Polymarket + US: $8.16B
Kalshi: $37.17B
Derivatives on prediction markets: $0
The missing layer is obvious.
Prediction markets have scale. Now they need leverage, hedging, and convexity.
That $0 stat will not survive for long.
🔜
There's an opportunity and we are building at the forefront of it!
Convallax allows you to trade long term bets with a lower cost of capital via enabling options on Polymarket.
There's an opportunity out there for a prediction market that could handle long-term bets with lower cost of capital.
Every PM nowadays requires you to fully collateralize your positions, and Kalshi is currently the best offering because they'll give you 3.25% interest on the mark-to-market value of positions.
But I can make >3.25% elsewhere so I'd need serious edge to even consider betting on something a year out!
Would love to be able post a non-PM asset as collateral to make long term predictions without insane drag.
You can buy a put option on the Fed Rate Hike in 2026 market to express a bearish view.
If the Fed does not hike rates and the underlying Polymarket moves lower or resolves NO, the put can become profitable with a much better payoff.
Multiple expiries, multiple strikes, multiple ways to express a view on this market and make money. How? 👇
BREAKING: WARSH SAYS THERE IS ONE SIGNAL THE MARKET CANNOT MISS.
"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving towards our objective at a sufficient speed"
"I stand here today committed to a discipline, not a decision"
HUGE ENDING THERE.
WARSH CONFIRMS NO COMMITMENT TO RATE HIKE WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR CRYPTO RALLY CONTINUATION.
Polymarket is pricing this market at 56%.
A $5,000 YES bet gives $3,583 upside if the Fed hikes rates this year, potentially in the September FOMC
On Convallax, the same view with call options has up to $9,904 max profit.
That’s the power of options on prediction markets!
