Immune from confirmation bias because I’ve never had it go check out https://xitter.cf/t.co/NArYiaoLIv
Blurst of Times
Joined October 2016
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Look, if Bobby Charles becomes governor of Maine and Susan Collins loses, that’d be the funniest end to this saga. Not great for any Maine resident, but truly hilarious.
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
Honestly I knew my projection model is highly accurate (it's the same I have used for elections in Poland and Romania), but I really didn't expect it to be this accurate that early on.
xitter.cf/Gust_2319/status/21144…
Yeah…there’s no way you go through the trouble of raising half a million dollars for a PAC to put out fake polls. They may not be particularly accurate, but it seems they are real.
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Greatest poll of all time?
#New 2026 Brazil 2nd round poll - Federal District
Valid votes:
🔵Flávio Bolsonaro: 55.1%
🔴Lula: 44.9%
Total votes:
🔵Flávio Bolsonaro: 54.2%
🔴Lula: 44.1%
⚪️Blank/undecided: 1.8%
TránnyTróon Polling #61 - 2000 respondents - 10/23
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Connecticut, Iowa, & Utah!
From the death of the Connecticut GOP to the Iowa Democrats maybe pulling off the unthinkable, it's all here. Check it out below!
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
ICYMI: Here is our full conversation with @JMilesColeman from Crystal Ball, where we talk about ratings changes, ET Legends, and more!
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=HRnJwOIe…
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to cast their votes by absentee or mail-in ballot. 📬
But a smaller share of Democratic voters plan to vote this way this year – specifically the share who plan to return a ballot via the USPS.
#MailInBallots #VoteByMail
ALT Chart showing smaller share of Democratic voters are planning to return ballots by USPS mail this year
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
Also in that poll, a far more important question: how do you store your ketchup?
Yep, people are avoiding the mail.
2026 WA drop box return rate: 68%
2022 WA drop box return rate (final) : 61%
And keep in mind drop box rate usually trends up as late-arrivers avoid mailing and drop their ballots off.
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
Another brand new edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Idaho, Nebraska, & New Mexico!
Three more small states doesn't mean they don't have very interesting elections! Check it out below!
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
One potential reason that we are seeing this? LV Samples appear to be older than RV Samples, and whiter. In most of the Marist polls in the second wave, at least, we are seeing this trend.
TX (LV): 39% Under 45, 41% Non White
TX (RV): 41% Under 44, 44% Non White
World's Biggest Stagflation Truther retweeted
ICYMI: Episode 3 of ElectionCord is now on YouTube, where we talked to J Miles Coleman about ET, Crystal Ball, and ratings changes, the Marist Michigan poll, and other eventful things that happened yesterday!
LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=xRKOOJK2…
NYT poll is roughly implying, as movement from Trump 2024:
- 4-5 pts from differential turnout (it's a Harris +3 weighted recall in LV)
- 6 pts from persuasion
- 2 pts from new voters
