Angel Investor and Managing Partner of C2 Capital Management. Provides capital & mentoring to #FinTech #AlternativeData #Traders #AI #Crypto #Blockchain $CME
Chicago / Beaver Creek
Joined August 2011
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Illinois spent years trying to pass transaction taxes on futures trading (HB 106, HB 1023). The market's response was simple: move the business elsewhere.
Those bills failed.
Now Springfield is trying again, except this time it's crypto. They stuffed and voted on a tax while no one was watching.
Tax the digital version of an activity while leaving the traditional version alone, and don't be surprised when companies, capital, and jobs leave the state.
This bill gets vetoed, gets crushed in court, or accelerates Illinois' exit from the next generation of financial infrastructure - #tokenization of RWAs and #stablecoins and #blockchain payments and #defi
The outcome is the same: Illinois loses.
This is insane.
Illinois introduced and passed a new Digital Asset Tax that is 0.20% of the value of transactions paid by individuals, without anyone knowing, by purposefully leveraging the legal system so as few people as possible would have a chance to notice.
They created bill SB3019 on January 29th, which was supposed to be an Agricultural Finance bill. It was initially passed in the Senate unopposed on April 14th.
Then, on May 31st, in the House, a floor amendment replaced the entire bill, adding 1,623 new pages, including the Digital Asset Tax Act.
The House passed the bill on the same day, and the Senate passed it the next day.
The bill currently sits on the governor's desk for his signature.
If we can draw enough attention to this brazen activity and its ability to cause substantial harm to individuals and businesses with ties to Illinois, maybe we can get the governor to consider vetoing this abomination.
Chris Randle retweeted
some have asked me about my time in Renaissance Technologies. although I’m retired I can’t really say much due to NDA, but I have an unseen interview snippet from my ex-colleague Nick (hope the kids are doing well mate) that I’m comfortable to share. a lot of alpha in there
I find the quality of content on QuantTwitter disappointing. so in the next few weeks, I will be sharing novel stories about practitioners/legends, resources, anecdotes & many more
to kickstart this initiative I would like to share one of the most valuable websites for quant:
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The attached screenshot has been edited to insert anachronistic references to "gstack", "Mythos", and "GPT5.4", which did not exist in 2019; the original Hacker News post quotes Nick Patterson discussing simple regression. news.ycombinator.com/item?id=190652… robohub.org/talking-machin…
Traders are waiting for the #CME futures markets to open at 5:00 CST. The early call is for stocks to open down by 1.5-2%.
#Oil watchers also expect crude oil $CL futures to gain 5% or more, most likely due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan's chief commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva, recently outlined this in a "worst-case scenario". The note cautioned that a severe outcome could send oil prices into the $120-$130 per barrel range. Ships set to cross the Strait of Hormuz made a 180 degree U-Turn at ~8:15 AM CST Sunday morning, about 10 minutes after the announcement by Iran’s parliament.
$BTC and ETH spot markets are the only markets open at the time of writing and are lower by 4% after the U.S. bombing of alleged Iranian nuclear sites.
#markets @zerohedge
Mind blown by these numbers:
Circle ($CRCL) market cap: $40B $USDC AUM: $60B $CRCL mkt cap as % of USDC AUM: ~66%
Compare that to TradFi giant JPM: JPM market cap: $761B JPM AUM: $4.3 TRILLION JPM mkt cap as % of AUM: ~18%
The market is pricing something BIG for stablecoins. Your thoughts? #CryptoTwitter #Fintech #Circle @zerohedge
"HUGE! 🚀 Straight from the WHALE himself, @realDonaldTrump! He said, 'These $TRUMP coins? 💎 They're gonna MOON! 🌙 Bigger than any deal, believe me!' 📈 This ain't financial advice, but it's gonna be YUGE! Free White House tour to the b_gholders💰 #TRUMPCOIN #SATS #ToTheMoon #MAGA #Crypto
Looking at history: The biggest Nasdaq 100 one-day rallies are often in bear markets (see top 20 list). Today's rally is HUGE. If it holds, we're talking top 10 territory. Buckle up! 📈 #markets $ES $QQQ @zerohedge
Chris Randle retweeted
8/ Biggest risk? The unknown unknown.
Markets panic over the obvious (inflation, politics).
But Chanos reminds us: the real shock is what we don’t see coming.
A black swan.
A tech breakthrough.
A sudden collapse.
“The stuff you don’t see coming is what gets you.”
Just getting started? We aren’t even close to the average intra-year drop yet.
@MikeBellafiore @TheOneLanceB @steenbab
@mrtopstep @AnthonyCrudele @Topstep
@LindaRaschke @paxtrader777 @tradertvshawn
@40in20out @ramahluwalia
Elon has a humanoid algo for that now...
Is the #PPT President's Working Group on Financial Markets still gainfully employed? Asking for a friend.
Tether has been under microscope by US regulators since it launched in 2014. No surprise here on ongoing investigation.
YEAR-END STOCK & FUTURES MARKET OBSERVATIONS
What we are watching going into year-end:
~Election.
~The Fed.
~Israel/Iran conflict.
~Possible end to Ukraine/Russia war.
~China stock market and economic stimulus.
~Bitcoin reaction to $70k
~Any uptick in inflation.
~Tax selling in beaten-up names.
~Oil prices.
~EARNINGS is the driver of setup in stocks for the next quarter and whether the market is in a healthy environment. Earnings gap strength so far, and earnings season just started.
@ToppingCapital @yieldoppression @ramahluwalia
The U.S. Debt Bomb: The Ticking Time Bomb Nobody Wants to Talk About
Imagine the federal debt as a giant, ticking time bomb. It's sitting right there, in plain sight, but somehow, our presidential candidates seem to be playing a game of "Let's Pretend It Doesn't Exist."
Both presidential candidates are talking about economic policies, taxes, and spending, but when it comes to the mountain of debt piling up, it's like they're suddenly struck with selective mutism. Maybe they think if they ignore it, it'll just go away.
As our favorite event-driven analyst, Kuppy, would say, "They just missed their target by a whopping $1 trillion. If this were a stock, it'd be down 40% before the market even opened."
It's time for someone to take this debt seriously before it's too late. The canary in the coal mine is singing at the top of its lungs, and it's time to pay attention. @KamalaHarris @realDonaldTrump #markets
JPY (J6U4) futures saying the carry unwind could resume again soon. Risk managers are tapping traders on the shoulder and asking to reduce Risk-On positions.
Traders felt the bite of the unwind and were saved by a quick recovery. Time to take chips off the table until more clarity
#USDJPY #carrytrade $VIX #futures #FX
It looks like the Carry Trade – that blew up markets – is attracting Hedge Funds again. Japan’s currency has weakened more than 5% against the dollar since Aug. 5. Yen shorts have risen ~30-40% in past week. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🏆BUY THE DIPPERS WIN TROPHY AGAIN🏆
Gains from the August 5 panic lows...
Nvidia: +37%
Nikkei: +22%
Bitcoin: +20%
Tesla: +19%
Meta: +17%
Amazon: +17%
PONDERING
Success in #trading is not about every trade, and in tennis it is not about every point.
You can be one of the best traders ever and WIN less than 50% of the time.
Roger Federer will go down in history as one of the greatest tennis players ever and ONLY won 54% of his points.
Perfection is impossible!!!
#Federer #tennis #MindsetMatters @paxtrader777 @ToppingCapital @ramahluwalia @yieldoppression @40in20out @TheOneLanceB @steenbab @sspencer_smb
"Perfection is impossible.
In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches.
But what percentage of points did I win?
54%
In other words, even top ranked tennis players win barely more than half the points they play.
When you lose ever second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.
You teach yourself to think:
'Okay, I double faulted...it's only a point.'
'Okay, I came to the net and I got passed again...it's only a point.'
Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN's top 10 playlist – that too is just a point.
Here's why I'm telling you this.
When you're playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. And it is.
But when it's behind you, it's behind you.
This mindset is crucial – because it frees you to fully commit to the next point with intensity, clarity, and focus."
–@rogerfederer