cryptovios

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely

This is the first time I mostly hold BTC as an investment. For the NGU. Before, it was the biggest no-brainer far beyond that. It was the exit. The rock solid, unfuckable-with store of value. Separation of money from state. No third parties. Sovereignty. Digital truth in the form of a lean monetary ledger. Those qualities have, in my opinion, eroded a lot. Slow capture. More centralization. More relativizing and fiatizing of what Bitcoin is for. And there are seemingly no brakes. Just cheering when the people who still wanted Bitcoin to be money, not data storage, lost. Nodes decide, not miners. That used to be shared ground. Now it will get you ridiculed. I do not see the current trajectory, governance capture, or mining concentration reversing, not with the current attitude and behavior from the suits, the influencers and the social layer in general. That is why my faith in the project today is much weaker than it used to be. I am not calling the Blake2b chain Bitcoin. I am glad the fork happened. It is a live attempt to reassert principles a lot of us thought were settled: monetary protocol, hostile to spam, nodes enforcing rules, miners do not get to veto by selling block space for JPEGs and other non-monetary use. Whether it works at any meaningful scale is unknown. The energy around it is real. That resonates more with me than victory laps from people who treated BIP-110 as a joke and then celebrated when centralized hashpower blocked it. My position: I am not selling my BTC. I am not telling anyone else to sell. I intend to hold both sides for now. Nobody should be buying or selling either side of this split yet. The dust has not settled, liquidity is a joke, and rushed claim tools are how you lose funds. I urge everyone to make their own, well researched and responsible decisions. Most of my attention and interest now goes to the chain that still treats spam as spam, instead of inviting more of it and saying the debate is settled.

BREAKING: The Trump administration is now planning to resume the Iran war with full force after the November midterm elections, with Trump having a window from November 3rd through January to significantly escalate the war, until the newly elected members take office in the Senate and House, per Reuters. Meanwhile, top Trump aides are pushing him to formally declare the Iran war over and keep it from escalating before November to limit Republican electoral losses. This comes as Iran says it will "defeat Trumpism" in the November midterms, by "systematically damaging Trump's presidency" through economic warfare.

🇺🇸LATEST: Big Tech firms that backed Trump are now writing BIG checks to Democrats ahead of the midterms, per WSJ. Meta and other major companies are preparing for potential congressional, and even criminal, investigations over the tens of millions they gave to Trump, his projects and Republican initiatives. Some firms are creating internal task forces, hiring former Democratic aides and preparing for potential hearings and subpoenas if Democrats retake the House. Democrats need to gain just a handful of seats to take control of the House in November, while the GOP-controlled Senate is also increasingly viewed as a tossup.