Dane Carlson (@danec) header
Dane Carlson (@danec) profile picture

AI, economic development, business, industrial development, and geopolitics • Host of @Econdevshow • @Sitehuntio CEO

Houston, TX
Joined March 2015
Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)Photo by Dane Carlson (@danec)
Honestly, this is good enough for me. If AI can beat Nethack, we've done it. Every new advancement from here on out is just showing off.
In all seriousness, this is a startling achievement for GPT-6 Astra. kenforthewin.github.io/blog/… (This is GPT-6 Astra beating Nethack on its 3rd try. Nethack is the original roguelike and one of the most famously hard games of all time. I have played a lot, and I've never ascended)
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Dane Carlson retweeted
Sometimes I think about this guy and wonder which of Screwtape's advice he didn't find erroneous.
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At Tesla, we learned the concept of the 'idiot index' which is retail price / BOM cost. The higher the index, the more the need to understand how that thing was built and what drove the cost. These motors have a raw BOM cost of about $25. In the US, they are sold for $125-$300, by most incumbents; an idiot index of >5 in many cases. To understand why this happens, we visited some of these incumbents' lines. Three reasons: 1. Not AI native on the ops side: Still using spreadsheets and expensive software to manage inventory, schedule production, and handle customer support. No hunger to move fast and rip out these systems. 2. Locked into expensive lines; high retail price helps with ROI: Some of these companies have bought automated, rigid lines for relatively commoditised motors (3115s). Now they face a price squeeze and can't really lower prices since they want to pay off the line. They can't move to better-margin motors because lines are fixed. 3. Manual lines, $55/hour landed labour cost: Folks who saw manufacturers struggle with 2 above are keeping lines manual and flexible, but need to deal with the high cost of labour, which is passed on to the customer. What happens when we can get robots to automate this assembly end-to-end? Do dark factories mean product prices drop to COGS + energy? Excited to find out.
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OTD in 1989: an impromptu visit to a Houston-area grocery store changed world history. A very Happy Yeltsin Supermarket Day to all who celebrate!
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After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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Dane Carlson retweeted
once in a while, hackernews just throws some sentences at you that make you sit in silence for some minutes.
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We will give one banked reset for every day you don't have access to Astra on your paid ChatGPT plan, starting today. Team is moving mountains to give access as fast as we can. First one will land in ~ 3 hours. There is still time to create your account if you don't have one.
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Dane Carlson retweeted
People often ask why today's tech wealth doesn't go towards more public works, like libraries, universities, and museums during the late 1800s. As far as I can tell the answer is that they would literally not be allowed to be built. In 2014, George Lucas, a long-time Bay Area resident who built Lucasfilm in the Bay, wanted to build a museum in the Presidio as a gift to the people of San Francisco, to be personally funded to the tune of ~$700 million. The Presidio Trust rejected it. He then tried to build it in his wife's hometown of Chicago, but local nonprofit Friends of the Parks sued and held the project up for two years, long enough for Lucas to give up on the city. The Lucas Museum of Narrative Art will finally open in Los Angeles next month after more than a decade of planning, eight years of construction, and over $1 billion personally spent by Lucas. Meanwhile, San Francisco has built no major museum projects since the 2016 expansion of SFMOMA, and no new libraries since the North Beach Branch in 2014. Public works, like so many other things, are bottlenecked not by donor will or available funding but by vetocracy
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Replying to @emollick
"Science fiction authors hate LLMs" What a sad irony. Of all the Sci-Fi predictions and promises (flying cars, colonies on mars etc.) talking computers (literally LLMs) are the only childhood dreams of SciFi fan that actually came true ... and the SciFi-authors hate it 🤦
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“We don’t want data centers here.” Great. Your town’s economic development plan can remain a Dollar General and three vape shops
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Am I the only one who doesn’t understand why we need data centers? I spent all morning searching Google and Wikipedia and couldn’t find a single good reason. Then I watched a 45-minute YouTube explainer in 4K, but it was mostly about AI, and I’m just waiting for that bubble to pop. I opened 200 browser tabs, downloaded a few hundred research papers, translated three from Chinese, and uploaded 2TB of sequencing data so colleagues in eight countries could analyze it with me. Then we discussed the results on Zoom while Slack transcribed the meeting and emailed everyone a summary. Around lunch, my phone backed up 14,000 family photos, synchronized my contacts and calendar across six devices, routed me around traffic, checked the weather using live satellite data, booked a doctor’s appointment, refilled a prescription, paid a bill, transferred money between banks, approved payroll for hundreds of employees, and ordered groceries. Later, I read about hospitals retrieving patient records and medical scans in seconds, emergency services coordinating disaster responses, scientists designing protein therapies and sharing enormous datasets, utilities balancing the electrical grid, and airlines continuously rerouting thousands of flights. But these all felt like pretty niche edge cases. So I asked an AI agent to turn everything I had done that day into a Twitter post, make it increasingly insane and obvious, and optimize it for maximum engagement.
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Solid (as in ice) sounding plan.
ok, hear me out: we should build a ton of AI data center capacity in northern Alaska I think about this a weird amount, because I’ve actually spent time there for work (I believe I hold the record for northern-most deployment in Palantir history?) Prudhoe Bay sits on the very northern coast of Alaska, and was once the largest oil field in America. It still pumps 180k barrels of crude oil per day from over 800 wells, with 2k people working up there. It also produces 8 billion cubic ft of natural gas/day. While in most oil fields it’d be exported and sold, in Alaska natural gas is re-injected back into the reservoir because it can’t be transported – pipeline is crude-only, and ships can't get up there with the ice. The “Alaska LNG” project to build an 800mi pipeline to south has been talked about for years, but would cost like $50b and wouldn’t be economically competitive with the Permian. So, there’s 40 trillion cubic ft of proven natural gas reserves – enough to create 25GW of power, continuously, for 30 years! And it’s just sitting there, trapped, fully accessible in a pre-drilled reservoir, with wells, pumps, separation facilities, gas storage, ice roads, an airport, lodging, etc. There’s already expertise on how to build and operate infrastructure, and a built-in workforce. Just drop some turbines in and you have as much on-demand electricity as you’d ever need – completely separated from L48 grid. I'm not an expert in data center cooling, but I would also assume that it would be a pretty efficient place to put these things - it certainly never gets too hot! Of course a natural reaction to this might be that building data centers would somehow despoil the pristine landscape, but the footprint and impact would be extremely slight compared to the massive amount of oil and gas infrastructure already up there (much less what would be required for LNG export). Also, having been there, I can tell you that it basically looks like the moon - it's just flat, white tundra for miles and miles around. You'd be disrupting much less wildlife there than you would almost anywhere else in the U.S. that you would build this stuff. And, unlike basically everywhere else they’re trying to build data centers, you’re not in anyone’s “backyard” – most of the people up there are oil workers anyway, and the full-time Slope population lives away from the oil fields. There's some random smattering of projects being talked about (like 1-3GW theoretical, total) but I don't think we're talking about this nearly enough? Is there some reason this isn't like, the backbone of our national AI strategy, assuming we have to build these somewhere? @elonmusk get in on this man
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I don't know for sure, of course, but his argument is sound.
People look at the SR-71 and B-2 and assume the government must have technology today that would melt our brains. I suspect the opposite. Those aircraft came from an era willing to spend obscene money, accept failure and give small teams the authority to solve impossible problems. Since then, 51 major defense contractors became five. Procurement became a moat. Regulation became an incumbent advantage. The companies meant to be challenged learned how to out lobby, out wait and out comply the challengers.
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Finally...
President Donald Trump has entered the Texas data center debate. In the same week that Gov. Greg Abbott called for state regulators to conduct a sweeping audit of data centers wanting to connect to Texas’ power grid — effectively putting those projects on hold — Trump called Texas' opposition to data centers a mistake. bit.ly/3SlrynJ
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He's not wrong.
The Texas Triangle needs canals, not high-speed rail
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I have no idea who this is, but it is well worth a read. "The 35,000 tons is not battleship cosplay. It is plumbing."
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Dane Carlson retweeted
I have the @EVject product for the time being
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