Dave (@davecompounds) header
Dave (@davecompounds) profile picture

Stock investor • Port +417% since 2023 | $NBIS $ZETA $META $GOOG

Colorado, USA
Joined September 2023
Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)Photo by Dave (@davecompounds)
$NBIS has been counted out three times in just under two years Jan'25 | DeepSeek launches • "AI compute demand is dead" • $NBIS -40% in a week • Logic: if a Chinese lab can match top models with less compute, then GPU demand (and companies like Nebius that exist to supply that compute) is dead. • $NBIS 5X since Aug'25 | GPT5 dissappoints | Altman "bubble" • "Hype is dead" • Altman himself says people are "overexcited" • Logic: GPT5 was underwhelming and Altman compared it to dot com bubble and said investors will get "very burnt" • $NBIS 2.4X since Oct'25 | Circular financing fears • "AI is paying for its own revenue" • $NBIS -36% in Nov'25 • Logic: NVDA heavily invests into their own customers, essentially recycling AI funds among a handful of players. • $NBIS 2X since $NBIS is now down 33% in ten days due to: • $AVGO CEO comments getting framed around AI investors being gamblers • OpenAI revenue drop rumors • Inflation running hot None of this has to do with $NBIS specifically, or their growing numbers. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume it'll recover.
1
6
76
4,230
Looking for a new stock outside of AI? 4 hidden small-mid cap stocks that X isn't all over 1/ $VITL Vital Farms >Small Cap >Annual revenue 10X'd since 2017 (33% CAGR) >Annually profitable since 2018 >Just last year they had 9x total debt in cash >Buying back shares >Expanding facilities The story.. Vital Farms sell eggs, but they don't actually own the chickens, the barns, or the land. Instead, they operate an asset-light model. They source 100% of their pasture-raised eggs from a network of over 300 independent family farms. To convince these farmers to invest their own capital into building specific, 20 acre pasture-raised setups that meet Vital Farms' strict animal welfare standards, Vital Farms offers them multiyear, exclusive take-or-pay contracts. Vital Farms guarantees that they'll buy 100% of the egg output those chickens produce, at a fixed, predetermined price. Because of the contract structure, the supply side of Vital Farms’ business is completely fixed. They can't just call up their 300 farmers and say, "Hey, retail demand dropped 15% this month, please stop feeding 15% of your birds." When retail demand slows down because of massive price changes, Vital Farms is legally obligated to keep writing checks to farmers for millions of eggs that Walmart, Kroger, or Whole Foods doesn't need at the moment. This forces them to dump their inventory into the breaker market. In the breaker channel, eggs are cracked, pasteurized, and sold in bulk as liquid, frozen, or powdered eggs to industrial food manufacturers (like commercial bakeries or pre-made food companies). In 2024-2025, the egg industry suffered shortages due to bird flu. This led to a massive thinning of herds and egg scarcity. Egg prices jumped. By early 2026, herds were rebuilt and the industry was flooded with now an oversupply of eggs. The problem here was that Vital's premium eggs were now considered too expensive now that competitor's prices have come down. Back in 2024/25, when regular eggs were expensive (say, $4.50/dozen) due to shortages, upgrading to Vital Farms at $7.50/dozen didn't feel like a massive leap. Consumers thought, "Well, eggs are expensive anyway, I might as well pay an extra $3 for the really good pasture-raised ones." Today, now those regular store-brand eggs have plummeted to $2/dozen, Vital Farms is still sitting there at $7.50 Suddenly, the price difference isn't $3 anymore. It's $5.50 more per dozen. Now, shoppers are thinking twice when standing in front of the shelves looking at both prices. In 2024/25, 55% of customers were trying the brand for the first time. In 2026, the number dropped to 50%. In Q1, Vital Farms stated that they've "found the limits of what our brand could sustain" regarding premium pricing. In one of their top 10 retailer customers they've reduced their premium pricing to 25% above competitors, up from 35% above, sales immediately jumped 18%. This is fantastic. While lowering the price reclaimed customers, it directly cuts into Vital Farms' profit margins — which is exactly why Wall Street punished the stock. Another slight overhang on the stock that I'm sure Wall St didn't like.. They exited their butter business. Wall St sees it as cutting off revenue. It didn't have the same scale or margin profile as their core egg business. Mgmt decided to take the capital spent on butter and focus it on the core business. Not the worst call. Butter contributed 4% to total revenue. When announced during Q1, $VITL 2026 revenue guide was reduced by $14M $777M is expected for $VITL 2026 total revenue. Butter wasn't moving the needle much, but with price cuts, margin slips, and guidance reduced, of course Mr. Market wasn't going to let that slide. Down 75% from all time high in Sept Up 53% from 52-wk low in May I can see this sitting at $38 by end of 2027 Current price: $12 Buy when others are fearful situation.
4
2
11
2,692
I feel many need to hear this: $ONDS was under $1 last year I don’t think you guys are upset about the sideways action. I think y’all are upset that you didn’t find this name when shares were worth cents. This stock just pushed out a 17x as recently as January Yes, time in beats timing, but timing also matters people. $ONDS is still a great business — that I’m happy to own — that is still building out there business model which will lead to more catalysts in the coming years. But to act like it’s a trash stock when it just changed lives, like months ago, just shows how high you bought & how little patience you have. Act like long term investors. I’m convinced y’all are the same folks that’ll likely sell $ONDS at $9 to fomo into one of these IPOs To then get screwed over there too when $ONDS finally holds $14 — leading to another permabear banging the table preaching “how the market is sht”
16
4
151
18,435
$NBIS will likely double from here within 18mo There’s still upside
14
4
198
16,327
Very thorough write-up on $ZETA the company. Lots of upside available over the coming years!
1
1
5
2,103
$ZETA reports after hours on Thursday, April 30th If all goes well, this will be their 19th "beat and raise" quarter
1
2
1
29
3,671
World View pretty much offers $ONDS high-altitude observation by capturing a visual that’s 5x closer to Earth than satellites & can persist over an area for weeks at a time vs a satellite flying over an area once a day, at the same daily time.
$ONDS has made a $10M strategic investment in Word View Enterprises, a leader in high-altitude balloon ISR & stratospheric remote sensing.
2
3
29
4,203
Both Needham and HC Wainwright expect $ONDS Mistral merger to add over $100M to $ONDS 2026 guidance [$170-$180M] Price targets: • Needham $17 • Wainwright: $25 $ONDS currently trades under $10
2
22
2,569
Replying to @RKLBMan
$ONDS was a gem before DDP There was a lot more to Investor Day than Wasp being submitted to the DDP They just received an order worth 10% of 2026 revenue guidance That’s what I choose to focus on
1
1
21
1,719
$ZETA CEO just said that to get to $10B in revenue they just need to increase the wallet share of their clients from 1.3% to 6-7% "That's it. I don't have to get 10k new customers." $ZETA guided for $1.75B in 2026 revenue
2
3
1
166
23,791
Just posted my takeaways from $ZETA Q4 earnings 🔗 in bio
1
14
1,692
$ZETA is currently serving: 51% of the Fortune 100 24% of the Fortune 500 "These clients alone represent well over $100B in annual marketing spend" -CEO $ZETA is only guiding for total revenue of $2.3B in 2028 The runway of growth is ridiculous for this company
1
1
46
2,708
$ZETA Q4 Bullets: • 18th straight “beat and raise” quarter • Revenue $395M vs $379.25M | 25% y/y • EPS $0.23 vs $0.23 • GAAP net income of $6.5M • 2025 revenue $1.3B | +30% y/y • Revenue was up 25% excluding LiveIntent, Marigold’s Enterprise Business, and PY Political Candidate revenue • 16th straight quarter of revenue growth of over 20% • 6th straight year of over 20% revenue growth with expanding adj EBITDA margins • Q4 Adj EBITDA up 35% y/y • 2025 Adj EBITDA up 44% y/y • 20th straight quarter of expanding Adj. EBITDA margins y/y • Total scaled customers: 602 | +14% y/y • Total super-scaled customers: 184 | +24% y/y • 19th straight quarter of scaled customer expansion • Serving 51% of Fortune 100 vs 44% last quarter • Serving 24% of Fortune 500 • 90% of 2025 revenue driven by customers with Zeta over a year • Q1 revenue guide $361M-$371M | +39%-40% • 2026 revenue guide $1.749B-$1.762B | +34%-35% • Q1 adj EBITDA guide $61.2M–$61.8M | +31%-32% • 2026 adj EBITDA guide $389.9M – $392.1M | +40%-41% • 2026 free cash flow guide $230.7M-$231.7M • 2028 guidance: — $2.3B total revenue | 23% CAGR — $573M adj EBITDA — $371M free cash flow • Marigold acquisition adds the following to Zeta’s 2028 guide: — +$190M to the now $2.3B revenue guide — +$48m to the now $573M adj EBITDA guide — +$31M to the now $371M FCF guide • 17% Super scaled customer count CAGR from 2021-2025 — only 4%-8% growth need for 2028 guide • 14% Super scaled ARPU CAGR from 2021-2025 — 12%-16% needed for 2028 guide • Over 90% of revenue growth from 2020 to 2025 has been driven by at least $1M customers • 30% Revenue CAGR from 2021-2025 • 45% adj EBITDA CAGR from 2021-2025 • 75% Free Cash Flow CAGR from 2021-2025 • Zeta is actively buying back shares at these levels — Planning to continue buying after the remaining $130M is used
3
1
19
1,394
The number of scaled customers using more than one $ZETA use case was up over 80% y/y in Q4
1
5
957
BREAKING: Mortgage rates hit 6% for the first time since Sept 2022
1
1
5
1,071
$ONDS Sentrycs has now delivered their C-UAS systems to Germany’s State Police. The announcement comes with the launch of a new handheld system, Sentrycs Scout. > Compact > Battery-powered > Designed for law enforcement & tactical forces > Rapid deployment of passive detection, tracking, ID > Cyber-based mitigation in a lightweight, man-portable format > No reliance on fixed infrastructure > Real-time situational awareness & rapid, precise mitigation in any environment > Supports safe operations in sensitive areas while minimizing regulatory & operational risk > Ideal for tactical force protection, convoy security, VIP safeguarding, border enforcement, & infrastructure patrols > Same core technology trusted in Sentrycs' fixed deployments > Ruggedized for field use in challenging operational conditions > $9.8B expected for 5yr global TAM for handheld counter-UAS systems
1
4
55
3,014
Replying to @davecompounds
Not sure you could’ve timed this any better 😬
1
1
1
872
$FUBO couldn’t be any quieter than they’ve been the last 12 months. It’s funny how vocal @davidgandler was during the lawsuit. Podcasts, interviews, the whole bit. Since the merger announcement, there’s been nothing but crickets on their IR page. Even after the deal officially closed, nothing but “be patient” comments by the CEO. Interesting. We didn’t have to “be patient” when there was an active lawsuit going on, we got any detail you can give, now when the merger is already a thing nothing? I wonder how tight of a ship Disney is running over there. Outside of that, is there no big news on $FUBO standalone business? We finally got the fair terms we needed to reach profitability. Nothing? I still think the stock will fly when clarity on Newco (can’t believe I’m still calling it NewCo btw) comes out But I’d be lying if I said 2025 wasn’t a trying time to be a $FUBO bull It was honestly easier to hold the stock during the lawsuit. At least we got bullish catalysts throughout 2024 that signaled a win.
7
1
1
26
3,229
$FUBO will be giving a brief business update on Feb 3rd
1
1
13
4,693