Building prediction market tools at @OddsAssist_ and posting about my strategies for winning on Kalshi & other PMs.
Philly
Joined February 2016
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This is what I use to get an edge on Kalshi and other prediction markets 👇
Nice little return on Kalshi's Aritzia earnings call mentions markets 📈
Here are historical hit rates for each of my trades (from the @oddsassist_ earnings mentions tracker) compared to their price:
– Conversion: 9/11 (82%) | got in at ~55.5c
– Franchise: 9/11 (82%) | ~52c
– Runway: 8/11 (73%), including 7 straight | ~72c
– Top of Mind (loser): 7/11 (64%) | ~23c
The earnings mentions tracker showed "top of mind" had a lot of Q&A mentions, so I put in limit orders for well below the highest Bid hoping to keep some cheap fills.
I got in at 23c and had some other orders for 6c, but I set them to expire ~15 mins before the call end.
If you're trying to snag cheap mentions during Q&A but can't listen to the call live, I highly recommend setting them to expire ~10-20 mins before the call ends to avoid getting filled when the call is pretty much over.
I don't know anything about Aritzia, but this one had a few clear patterns that I was able to take advantage and make $107 with a few mins of work.
.@OG_com how does something at 50% only have a payout of 1.7x or 1.76x?
Even after accounting for the fee on a $100 trade ($3.05), the payout should be ~1.97x.
What am I missing?
Slippage isn’t a factor btw there’s $68k in liquidity at 50%
It always feels good checking the Kalshi portfolio and seeing all green for open positions 📈
Here's my general strategy:
1) Use @oddsassist_'s prediction market tools to find value and either take prices I like or put in limit orders that I think will get filled (or both).
2) If placing limit orders, adjust prices as needed to try and get filled at prices I like.
3) Monitor price movement and either buy more, sell once I'm happy with my return, or hold when I'm confident about the play.
When I first started, I almost exclusively held until the event settled.
This generally worked well for me, but just because your return is up on paper doesn't mean you'll win.
Lately, I've been selling a lot more before the event even starts and locking in my profits.
It sucks when the play hits and I could have profited more, but my overall ROI is up because I rarely take big losses when something pans out how I didn't expect.
I keep a list of very specific edges on earnings mentions markets, and one of them was for Carnival's call this morning...
They almost NEVER say "oil". Instead, they say "fuel".
In 24 calls (6 years), they've said oil ONCE according to the @oddsassist_ earnings mentions tracker.
Whenever I see this market go live, I start loading up, even if the call is months out.
As expected, they didn't say oil and NO hit.
I didn't get in as cheap as I have in the past, but I'm still happy with a virtually guaranteed 22% return.
This is why you need to trade based on historical data, not your gut.
With oil prices being so high, which is of course hugely impactful to a cruise line, you might think getting Yes at 18c is a steal, but the data shows otherwise.
Costco earnings call mentions results: 6/7 for +$144 (34% ROI) 📈
A few days ago, I gave out my pick for Costco to say "holiday" on today's earnings call, but I had a few other plays on Kalshi too.
Holiday ended up hitting, along with all of my other plays except "retail media" YES.
Unfortunately, that one was priced around 81c. If that hit, I would have been up $224, but I'm still really happy with the results.
The biggest winner was "revenue" NO at 19c (420% ROI).
That one was only said on 16/27 calls (59%) overall that the @oddsassist_ earnings mentions tool tracks, so I was really happy to get it for so cheap.
After the CFTC notice on mentions markets, our time with these might be near the end, but I'll be nose-down milking these for all their worth while they last 🥲
Super excited for this launch.
The highest daily YouTube view markets are super niche, which means you can find a ton of value...
You just need the right tool to find it.
We just dropped it 👀
Check it out!
This hit this morning btw, along with my two other plays.
Ended up going 3/3 for +$137 and a 43% ROI 📈
"Pricing" NO was the best return (225%) with an average cost of ~31c.
For that one, AutoZone has been saying it much less over the past few years—including not mentioning it once in prepared statements since 2025 Q3—so it felt like huge value.
I use the @oddsassist_ earnings mentions tool for my analysis btw. If you haven't checked it out yet, I highly recommend it.
You can see actual counts of each strike in past transcripts alongside current Kalshi pricing to find value.
Be sure to use the prepared statements filter instead of just looking at the full transcript. I've found those to be much more predictive of future mentions.
AutoZone earnings call mentions pick: "Tax Refund" NO @ 80c ❌
AutoZone has only said "tax refund" on ONE Q4 earnings call (back in 2020), and that was in Q&A when there was a specific question about new COVID relief legislation.
At 80 cents, NO is expensive, but I think the fair value for this is >90 cents, so there's decent edge IMO.
Dave Rathmanner retweeted
Lots of Pinny +EV bets for next week's NCAAF and NFL games in our (completely free) tool right now 👀
AutoZone earnings call mentions pick: "Tax Refund" NO @ 80c ❌
AutoZone has only said "tax refund" on ONE Q4 earnings call (back in 2020), and that was in Q&A when there was a specific question about new COVID relief legislation.
At 80 cents, NO is expensive, but I think the fair value for this is >90 cents, so there's decent edge IMO.
Dave Rathmanner retweeted
NCAAF Week 0 Best Bets 🔒
College football is finally back, and so is our head handicapper, Rob O’Connor (@wedontlose).
Rob has done all of our NFL and NCAAF picks for the past three years, and he’s been profitable every season.
Last year, he was 169-135-5 (55.6%) across both leagues for +25.5 units ($100 unit bettor would have been up $2,550).
And we have some big news for this year…we’re giving out all of Rob’s NFL and NCAAF picks for FREE.
No more premium subscription required. We’ll be posting them all in the Picks Portal of Odds Assist Pro, as well as sending them out over email and social.
Now onto the action—let’s kick the season off strong with four picks for today’s games:
– USC -37.5 vs SJSU (-115) — 2 units — 3 pm ET
– SJSU @ USC O59.5 (-117) — 2 units — 3 pm ET
– UNC @ TCU U47 (-112) — 1 unit — 12 pm ET
– FSU -31 vs NMSU (-111) — 1 unit — 7 pm ET
We’re so excited football is back. On top of our weekly picks, we have a lot else planned, and we can’t wait to share more details in the coming weeks.
Best of luck with your bets today!
Super excited about this.
It's a huge step forward in making spotting edges on prediction markets easier and has been my favorite tool we've launched so far.
Beta Launch: Earnings Mentions Screener 🖥️
Our Earnings Mentions Tracker is our most popular prediction markets tool by a significant margin, and for good reason.
Kalshi has a ton of these markets, and we provide actual counts of how many times strikes were said on past calls, often going back 5+ years.
There's just one problem...👇
Earnings Mentions Pick for Wendy's Tomorrow: "Project Fresh" YES @ 85c 🍔
Of all the earnings call mentions markets this week, I think Wendy’s has the most value. The call is tomorrow at 8:30 am ET.
This is on the expensive side, but it seems like a lock to me.
To start, just look at the mention counts from the past few calls (from @oddsassist_ tracker).
Since launching Project Fresh, Wendy’s has said this 50 (!!) times across the past 3 calls.
Project Fresh is Wendy’s initiative to turn around the business that started in late 2025 and is rolling out through 2026.
This is one of their main focuses for the year, and I don’t see any way it doesn’t get brought up.
I generally avoid strikes that are priced this high unless I’m very confident, but this is one of those cases.
I did decent on World Cup Final mentions, profiting +$173 for a 15% ROI.
Some I've been trading on a lot on Stu Holden & John Strong's games (shoutout @oddsassist_ 's tracker) like What a Save NO, Own Goal YES, and Nutmeg YES.
Others were newer strikes like What a Strike/Finish and Zlatan/Ibrahimovic.
The Penalty Kick YES play hurts a lot with how close the game was to PKs. I'm actually shocked they never said it.
Own Goal and Hat Trick YES carried me in this one. Both were priced under 50c and I had bigger positions.
With the WC now over, I'm shifting my focus back to primarily earnings call mentions. A lot of my favorites to trade are coming up within the next two weeks 👀
Dave Rathmanner retweeted
A great example of using our Earnings Mentions Tracker to find value:
United has NEVER said "holiday" on their Q2 calls, at least for the past 6 years.
They've only ever said it on Q3 and Q4 calls.
Despite this, NO was priced around 80 cents for their call this morning.
At some points since the market opened, it dropped to as low as 43c.
Feeling confident, we tried buying as much NO as possible below 85c.
We ended up with 800 shares and turned a 22% profit when, as expected, they didn't say it on the call.
+$286 for 39% ROI on England/Argentina mentions 📈
I tried sizing up in this one but had a lot of limit orders never get filled.
Still had nice results, especially hitting on "Maradona / Pele" NO (avg 13c).
Strong and Holden (the announcers) only said this in 2 of the 10 games the @oddsassist_ World Cup mentions tool tracked going into the game, but it was priced like a near lock.
Even with Maradona being Argentinian, I felt like it was still a coin flip if they would say it or not, making 13c huge value.
I missed a few, but none were major positions, so I still came out with a solid return.
I've loved trading these mentions for the past few weeks, but we only have two games left 😭
World Cup Final and third-place game on Saturday, both of which I already have some positions in.
Make sure you're filtering by announcers if you're trading these. If you have the historical data, it's pretty easy to find value.
Decent results on USA/Belgium mentions: +$190 for 21% ROI 📈
I hit 7/10 picks, including my favorite pick of the game "Own Goal" YES, which @oddsassist_ gave out as a play yesterday.
My biggest loss was on "Powerade" YES, which I bought a good portion of my position live for super cheap.
There was a moment where the US's coach kicked the Powerade water bottle holder thing, and I was hoping they'd say it, but they never did.
Still came out in the black with a nice profit.
There are fewer games now that we're deeper into the tournament, but there are a ton of earnings call mentions markets live that I'll be diving into 🔎
