David Tinker

30 years ago I was working with elite athletes and drawing training zones on paper based on blood lactate curves. No substrate data. No indirect calorimetry. Just the conviction that something metabolically distinct was happening at each intensity — and that Zone 2 was where the most important adaptation was taking place. In 2005 I began adding fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates to the picture, and what the substrate data revealed confirmed what the lactate curves had been suggesting all along: each intensity represents a distinct metabolic state, not just a point on a continuum of effort. That work became the Metabolic Map in 2013. Then the metabolic flexibility paper with George Brooks in 2018. And now the updated 2026 framework, which maps four metabolic states onto classical threshold models and asks a question the older models never quite posed: Is the system in optimal metabolic balance, or is it drifting away from it? Lactate turns out to be the best real-time proxy we have for answering that question. It tracks metabolic equilibrium, the onset of drift, and the progression toward overload better than any other single variable we can measure in the field. Thirty years of work. One molecule. One central question. My last substack article open.substack.com/pub/inigos…