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Waldo

@ddnanocap

Due dilligence for nano-caps. Not investment advice

 Minneapolis, MN
Joined April 2022
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Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)Photo by Waldo (@ddnanocap)
Simon Cowell was reunited with his very first Golden Buzzer, Caly Bevier! She is amazing! 👏👏
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$lgo hey maybe the brazil election becomes a tail wind for investment and easier financing. Looking good tonight
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$lgo fuckery complete or more to Come?
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1/12 $ARRY thread on where it sits in the market, why the capital structure makes the equity move the way it does, and what a rerate could look like over the next few years
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11/12 The downside case is a stock sale near $4 to take out the preferred. That's roughly $3. The risk to watch is cash conversion: the 2026 guide has FCF at 20–25%, and $325M of converts come due in December 2028. Weak cash into that maturity makes a dilutive raise more likely
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12/12 That's the setup. The business holds the second seat in a protected market. The equity is a levered stub on that business. If the preferred gets paid down with cash instead of stock, the math works in common's favor even without a rerate
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$lgo insiders ponied up to pay overdue bills. They are tight on cash but the owners are tossing in to support. Might happen again maybe not lets see
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$lgo so if a broke ass vanadium supplier can have its day in a tough macro market what the hell does it take for $arry to move when a generational tail wind on the macro is in place for a duopoly
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$lgo Sometimes good news is exactly that… just good news. Dont over think it. First and biggest bank by stature agreed rest will probably follow. Get the high purity going at scale to the us market and get residual metal products selling… No dillution yet outside atm
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Image from Waldo (@ddnanocap)
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$ce were the insider buys and sandbagged guide under assumptions of resumption to normal not enough to pique your interest mr market. Usually speculation is abundant… unless the name is hated. Lets fing go here now
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