Bitcoin & Crypto Market Intelligence | https://xitter.cf/t.co/pTW6aRaBjT
Not financial advice
Joined May 2020
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DN26 | Hold The Line | A year of the Decode Newsletter, Bitcoin tests support, and are stocks ready to cool off?
newsletter.decodejar.com/p/d…
Since this post, the 200 day sma has risen to 73k and the 21 week ema to 76.6k. Moving averages are moving targets and the targets are moving up. Even the 200 week sma is now above 67k.
Bitcoin is holding up pretty well and may still run higher, so I don't want to jinx it, but what if the wave 1 peak was at 87.4k?
90k target is based on 0.618 extension of waves 1+3, projected from 4. BTC came close, but it's not the only way to measure it.
Inverse 1.618 the depth of wave 4 targets 87k, and wave 5 equals wave 1 method targets 82k. Two out of three targets hit means wave 1 top is likely in or close to it, unless sub-wave 5 becomes extended.
If the wave 1 high is in, wave 2 is a miserable affair. Sentiment will typically be worse than at the macro bottom. People will be convinced the bear market is back to stay.
This is characteristic of a wave 2 corrections in general, exacerbated by sidelined investors piling in late at the top of the breakout.
The 21 week ema current sits at 74k, the 200 day sma at 71k, both are rising. Usually at least one of these will be tested at some point before price continues significantly higher.
Decode retweeted
Bitcoin finally tapped the 70s (79k) in this slow grind lower. When I said the local high was probably in at 87.4k and we would come down to 75k no one believed me. Question now is how much lower. Will my target get tested, or is this enough? Sentiment metrics are still neutral.
Decode retweeted
A distinction I think a lot of people miss is that when I say we are mid-cycle, I'm not directly referring to Bitcoin, I'm referring to the business cycle.
Bitcoin's own cycle structure can be interpreted in a number of ways, a short cycle can be a left translated 4 year cycle for example, but in terms of what is driving it, I think the heating of the business cycle is why the low was shallow and a little shorter.
Crypto more broadly is perhaps at the start of a new cycle, having been in a 5 year downtrend due to challenging macro conditions.
Where all the analysis converges and agrees is that are heading into an uptrend and I think it will be a broad crypto bull market, but whatever happens, we need to be careful of allowing terminology to determine what camp we sit in, and instead focus on real signals like the business cycle, liquidity and capital rotation.
Bitcoin finally tapped the 70s (79k) in this slow grind lower. When I said the local high was probably in at 87.4k and we would come down to 75k no one believed me. Question now is how much lower. Will my target get tested, or is this enough? Sentiment metrics are still neutral.
I think people are overestimating how quickly the crypto market is going to move up.
I don't think it will be easy initially because amongst other things I look at stocks and see another leg down.
Nothing drastic, but if it's enough to put Bitcoin back into the 70s, it might take a bit of time to reverse and come back up.
My view is still that Bitcoin is most likely in wave 2, and if that holds true, sentiment can get a lot worse.
Otherwise we need to see Bitcoin hold 80k.
A distinction I think a lot of people miss is that when I say we are mid-cycle, I'm not directly referring to Bitcoin, I'm referring to the business cycle.
Bitcoin's own cycle structure can be interpreted in a number of ways, a short cycle can be a left translated 4 year cycle for example, but in terms of what is driving it, I think the heating of the business cycle is why the low was shallow and a little shorter.
Crypto more broadly is perhaps at the start of a new cycle, having been in a 5 year downtrend due to challenging macro conditions.
Where all the analysis converges and agrees is that are heading into an uptrend and I think it will be a broad crypto bull market, but whatever happens, we need to be careful of allowing terminology to determine what camp we sit in, and instead focus on real signals like the business cycle, liquidity and capital rotation.
I think the macro conditions that these two lines represent are quite different, but I still think Bitcoin will do something that rhymes, because of the position of the business cycle and where we are in the rotation. I think we are getting closer to a strong upside move, but these things invariably take longer than everyone thinks.
I'm not really a fractal guy, but this Bitcoin chart aligns will with my view that we will see a shorter cycle to peak this time around. Credit to @_Checkmatey_
I've been talking to a lot of people about crypto the last few months, and the opportunity that I think is now right on our doorstep. Most agree that it's been down bad for a long time and can see my point of view, but don't have the ability to do anything about it. Cost of living, kids and family commitments, other investments like property, or even just at a point in their life where they don't have any appetite for the risk. There's always been this disconnect between CT and the real world. People with smaller pools of capital are less likely to make life changing gains, and the risk they take on is also far greater if they commit.
I'm not really a fractal guy, but this Bitcoin chart aligns will with my view that we will see a shorter cycle to peak this time around. Credit to @_Checkmatey_
Shout out to a few accounts I've known for a long time, and this isn't about content or success, it's about people whose interactions are always respectful, genuine and come from the right place.
@chrono_chartist
@nihkalowz
@TXMCtrades
@MatthewHyland_
@CredibleCrypto
@StockmoneyL
@i_am_jackis
@cantonmeow
@lourenco_vs
@Osemka8
@_Checkmatey_
@BobLoukas
@therationalroot
@GertvanLagen
@TradersMastery
@TheRealPlanC
@sminston_with
@OnChainCollege
@AlemzadehC
@AssetsNorris
There are many more, of course I will forget lots and cannot list them all, but these are just the first 20 that came to mind. I follow more than 500 of you.
In addition there are many many many smaller accounts that I interact with regularly in the comments, you know who you are.
I wouldn't entertain a conversation with you if I didn't think you were part of the good culture on CT 👊