Former L/S at Credit Hedge Fund | Where's my arc, Paulie?
Joined October 2011
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There's a ~3pg. stretch in Predator's Ball with more value on building "culture" than there is in hundreds of lectures, books, and papers written on the subject.
In essence, it boils down to 1) Pay your people really well, 2) Give them autonomy, 3) Make them feel like owners
I say this somewhat facetiously but if this is the end of the AI trade (and it might be for the next few months), I really struggle to call what we experienced in public markets a bubble. We almost need a different name for it.
Sure - a lot of co’s went up 3-4-10x on already large market caps in short time spans but the fundamentals were not and are not THAT egregious. All the hypers at their peak basically traded <30x EBITDA. Memory names basically never got above 10x PE.
Maybe the mania was more pronounced in privates. But compare this to NFTs or SPAC mania a few years ago? Not even remotely comparable.
The podification (and retailization) of markets continues. INTC is a microcosm.
Dec '25: "Onshoring, foundry biz. This will take a few years to play out, but great thesis."
Oct '26: "PC sales missed and the things that were supposed to take yrs are, in fact, taking yrs. Sell"
This reminds me after they reported in January (Q4 numbers) and the stock was down ~20% because evidently people didn't understand that building a FAB biz takes time.
People were freaking out about no 14a customers and what not lol
I love how INTC went from multi-year turnaround story to suddenly PC shipments were slow so its -20%.
We need a real flush and positioning reset so badly.
I love how everyone’s gut reaction is to long coins post Binance hack bc funds got frozen.
The worlds largest exchange getting exploited for $5bn at a time when ai models are improving doesn’t strike me as a bullish catalyst.
Funny as I remember covering ADT and it was a high yield shitco and there were legit concerns around churn, competition (Vivint + Ring, etc.) and now it’s being bought in a permanent capital vehicle.
Today, we are announcing an agreement to acquire ADT.
Home security has the qualities we look for in the businesses we own: an essential service built on specialist expertise and earned trust.
We see an opportunity to build on that foundation for decades, investing in its people and technology to deliver the best outcomes for customers.
Our ambition is to help ADT define the next era of trusted home security.
thriveholdings.com/thrive-ho…
Like I guess the thesis is that with AI you can have less truck rolls, false alarms, better monitoring etc. but at the end of the day this is not an easy business to manage for equity growth.
Okay here me out: eventual trade xyz IPO and airdrop for early users of it + unit.
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Oracle news basically confirms market has no idea and needs hands holding.
You can do the math on when hypers eventually say the same thing, when Micron upgrades its buyback size, etc.
$ORCL - ORACLE TARGETS $225 BILLION IN REVENUE BY 2030
Oracle forecasts at least $225 billion in revenue by fiscal 2030, implying over 35% annualized growth.
The company targets 40% operating margins, $21 EPS, and $30 billion in free cash flow by fiscal 2029.
Oracle expects AI infrastructure spending to peak in 2027–2028 before transitioning to self-funded growth.
We're going to beat this into bears' heads again on Thursday with Sandisk, and then in Q4, and then again in Q1, etc. etc.
