L/S equity HF Mgr. | Macroeconomics | Special Situation Investor | Nothing written by this account is financial advice, do your own research
Manhattan Beach, CA
Joined November 2024
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$ASTS $VOD
🧵Vodafone Investment Thesis
Current Price (2H FY26): $13
FY28 PT: ~$23
The Thesis in Brief: Vodafone has successfully transitioned from a distressed conglomerate into a disciplined, growth-focused connectivity platform. The market is currently pricing VOD on backwards-looking metrics; fixated on the painful German MDU transition and historical debt bloat. This creates a dislocation. This view identifies three mispriced levers that will drive a re-rating in FY27 and continued multiple expansion beyond:
Germany Turns the Corner: The operational drag from the TV Law change is fully priced in. FY27 represents the first clean year of EBITDA growth in the core German market.
The "SatCo" Option: The joint venture with AST SpaceMobile is currently valued at zero by consensus. We view it as a high-margin infrastructure monopoly for European Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity, worth ~$2.00/share alone on FY28 EBITDA estimates discounted backwards.
Capital Discipline as a Floor: The massive share buyback program (reducing float by ~15% vs. FY24) provides a mechanical floor to the stock price, while structurally lowering the dividend burden.
$SKHY
Picked up 8000 shares and sold 2029 $320 covered calls for $26 a piece. Assuming peak ASPs in 2028, and 50% drawdown in operating profits in ‘29 and ‘30, BV/share ends up around $130 a share by the end up the decade… assuming this trades in better multiple parity with micron, BV multiple 2-3x isn’t crazy.
In the age of AI, the prime thematics that come to mind are depression and anxiety, privacy, purpose, and biology
Depression: long psychedelics
Privacy: long zcash
Purpose: go touch grass stocks
Biology: hoeflation -> hoedeflation
women realize being girl bosses mean nothing anymore and want to revert to their biological tendencies and want to have a husband and children
$ZEC
We’re in the “John Mcafee was right about everything” cycle
zcash:native
I think the TAM is far larger than what most people can comprehend. Global private wealth ranges between $12-$15T.
If 0.1% of that wealth wanted to be shielded and transacted privately using a battle tested, ZK proof block chain, Zcash is the only chain with 10 years of product testing and iteration, that has finally won the regulators to exist broadly.
For context on what this magnitude of capital inflow would do to market cap. If 0.1% wealth moved to zcash, that would be ~$20B. The typical crypto market cap multiple is 10x.
$200B is the bear case.
$10,000 per Zcash is programmed.
$CMPS
I say this tongue in cheek, but what will the TAM look like for depression (MDD and TRD) if AI wipes out jobs permanently and people have no purpose… long psychedelics
$NVDA could theoretically pay off all of the neoclouds debt through buying substantial equity in every company solely using its NTM FCF. This is the bailout I’m expecting, but at substantially lower equity values than they are at currently. NVDA will eventually own most of the data centers that have already been built by the neoclouds and all future data centers. They will vertically integrate, and own the entire economics of the AI ecosystem, from the monetization of their open source model to the compute they sell.
Elon and I agree. xitter.cf/elonmusk/status/211443…
Finance creates its own reality primarily through reflexivity, where collective human beliefs, perceptions, and market expectations actively shape economic outcomes rather than just passively tracking them.
Why is this relevant through the frame of the AI trade?
If $CRWV and the pure play infrastructure companies can’t fulfill on their commitments both debt and revenue, then what’s to say lenders are willing to lend to these business models after an inevitable default? Most of these businesses can’t work if their cost of capital is too high. Debt has gotten more expensive, and now their equity is tanking, making ATMs highly punitive to share count.
If these businesses can’t scale without getting $ from Nvidia financing their GPUs, then how does the application layer (the Anthropic’s of the world) continue to scale ARR?
That’s the issue I primarily see happening in 2027. Expectations have been built so high, the markets have reflexively priced businesses as if AGI has been achieved broadly and cash flows are imminent. That’s just not the case.
There’s still a massive lead time on the building of power infrastructure. Everything from power transformers, gas turbines, water, grid connections, permitting, and politics get in the way. I’m incredibly bearish on these bottlenecks causing a prolonged slowdown if the democrats win the midterms.
Stay vigilant and defensive for the next 18 months. Buying the dip won’t work. Think of all your favorite AI stocks down 50-75% from here over the next 12 months.
That is all.
This simply isn’t true. Credit cards give anywhere between 1-10% back on purchases. AI agents will think in terms of optimizing consumer utility, so as long as the incentive to use a card for the consumer is > the incentive to use crypto then the current system doesn’t get impacted. Credit cards are more of an expense to businesses who have to pay interchange fees. If businesses incentivize consumers to use stablecoins by giving them 5%+ off per purchase, then there is a case for credit cards give utilization/issuance to go down.
First comes the interest rate trade, then comes the debasement trade, then comes the “why is AI watching every move I make, and why is quantum a real thing, we’re all fucked” trade
Zcash wins in every market regime moving forward
DVD retweeted
Im seeing a ton of “everyone thinks it’s black monday, so the pain trade is up” posts. Stfu. Sit back. Times are different now.
The pain trade is so down that it makes your favorite fintwit influencer silent for 6-12 months.
Cost of capital is higher. Iran war is not over until a MOAB gets dropped. Oil prices aren’t at $150 yet. S&P is only 3% off its highs. The market regime has changed. Stop begging for your next dopamine hit. S&P FCF yield is like 2%. Why wouldn’t I just own TLT and get risk free 3x the yield?