Dieci — football by the numbers

Iran vs New Zealand, World Cup Group G. Model: Iran ~58%. Market opened ~50%. The edge sits in the Elo signal — NZ's confederation rating overstates them — and the sharp price has already moved our way (1.91 → 1.73). Thin by now, but the direction is the point.

⚽🇪🇸 Atletico Madrid vs Girona | La Liga ✅ · OVER 2.5 @ 1.73 🎙️ Atletico Madrid are safe at 66 pts with no objectives remaining, while Girona sit just 1 pt above the drop zone with 2 games left and arrive on a run of L L L D D. The xG of… diecifootball.com #LaLiga

⚽🇮🇹 Udinese vs Cremonese | Serie A ✅ · BTTS NO @ 1.95 🎙️ Cremonese are in the relegation zone with 31 pts, needing just 1 more point to escape with 2 games left, creating strong defensive motivation against a Udinese side that is safe with… diecifootball.com #SerieA

⚽🇪🇸 Oviedo vs Alaves | La Liga ✅ · UNDER 2.5 @ 1.91 🎙️ Oviedo are mathematically relegated with 29 pts and a -30 GD, while Alaves sit just 1 pt above the drop zone with 2 games left, making this a tense, low-risk encounter for the visitors.… diecifootball.com #LaLiga

⚽🇮🇹 Sassuolo vs Lecce | Serie A ✅ · BTTS NO @ 1.95 🎙️ Lecce sit in a relegation battle with 32 pts, level with the drop zone and only 2 games remaining, giving them strong motivation to keep a clean sheet and grind a result. Sassuolo are… diecifootball.com #SerieA

⚽🇪🇸 Sevilla vs Real Madrid | La Liga ✅ · OVER 2.5 @ 1.73 🎙️ Real Madrid arrive with 80 pts and a +39 GD, winning 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, while Sevilla have lost 2 of their last 5 and carry a -12 GD. The xG sits at 3.21 goals and both… diecifootball.com #LaLiga