Los Angeles, CA
Joined April 2011
Charlie Rahilly retweeted
People ask me why I'm so obsessed with ruminants. I've given it some thought, and my conclusion is that I'm not obsessed enough. A cow walks onto a wet hillside that grows nothing a human can eat, puts her head down, and comes back with steak, butter, cream and a pair of boots. She does it with a 150 litre fermentation tank she carries inside her, stocked with more bacteria than there have ever been people, which she feeds, waters and keeps at blood heat herself. Grass goes in. The bacteria take apart the one thing no animal can digest, and she lives on what they make. Then she digests the bacteria as well. Nothing is wasted. Even the fat comes out the far side rebuilt into something stable enough to fry in. Fuel: rain and sunlight. Emissions: next year's grass. She repairs herself, builds her own replacement every spring, and improves the ground she is standing on while she works. The finest engineers alive have spent billions trying to copy one chamber of her stomach in a steel shed, and so far they have made a paste. We have leaned on that machine for everything. The word capital comes from cattle, because a herd was the first bank. Domesday Book is written on sheep, and so was every deed in England for 500 years. Ruminants clothed our armies, lit our houses and carried our laws. Civilisation is a thing that happened to people who kept them. And they are such good company about it. A sheep remembers fifty faces for two years, which is forty-six more than I manage. A cow has a best friend, and her heart rate drops when that friend is beside her. A goat that cannot solve a problem will turn and look to you for help, as a dog does, and then ignore your advice. Let a herd out onto spring grass after a winter indoors and half a tonne of animal will skip. They ask for grass, rain, and to be left to get on with it. After ten thousand years of feeding, dressing and housing us, they will still walk over to the gate to see who you are. So no, I will not be calming down.
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
If you eat meat, this ONE IS FOR YOU, Some free advice... Over the next 6 to 12 months, if the Existential War of the Middle East keeps escalating, the price of meat is going to climb hard if not already, and I do not mean a few percent, I mean a serious jump. How? War hits oil first, and oil is behind the two costs that set the price of your steak. Diesel runs every tractor, every truck, every run from the farm to the slaughterhouse and from there to the shelf at your grocery store or your local butcher shop. Natural gas is what fertilizer is made from, and fertilizer is what grows the hay and the feed corn the cattle eat through winter and summer. Push diesel and fertilizer up at the same time and you have raised the cost of every single animal, from the ground up. That cost does not stay on the farm, it reaches you at the till and in your wallet within a few months. And this shock is not arriving into a normal market. The US cattle herd is ALREADY at its lowest level since 1951, around 86 million head, and beef is ALREADY at record prices before a single new shock hits. Ground beef is near $6 a pound and up double digits over the past year, with the herd this thin. Now stack a war-driven diesel and fertilizer shock on top of that. We have been here before. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, energy spiked, fertilizer roughly doubled, and global food prices hit the highest level ever recorded. Food follows energy, every time. My read is that in a sustained shock meat runs far past the double digits we already have, potentially 50% or more over the next year, IF the escalation holds and the input shock does not ease. So what do you do about it? You buy in bulk now, while it is ONLY "THIS" expensive, and you lock the price in. Depending on your family size, buy direct, portioned and frozen from a farmer or a butcher shop. 1. On your own or a couple, a QUARTER cow. 2. A family, a HALF. 3. A big household or several families together, a WHOLE animal. Go in with your brothers, sisters, cousins, parents, even your neighbours if you can talk them into it, split one animal and split the cost. All you need is a chest freezer and a butcher who will cut and pack it into meal-sized portions you draw down over the next 6 to 12 months. That alone usually saves you 20 to 30% against retail cuts TODAY, before you count what you dodge if the bigger move comes... Do it earlier rather than later, because this is about as cheap as meat is going to get over the next 12 months... Share this with someone who may find it useful. If you know, you know. 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Before and after the dog park
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Gemelli Hospital has a special ward for the Pope, but since they saw a younger and more athletic Pope, the authorities decided to renovate it without thinking that Leo XIV would need it so soon. Today he couldn't use it because it's closed.
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Musk throws Trump under the bus
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Wow is right!
Wow. In the last 4 years, Wealth went up 37% for Americans 75+ Wealth went down 23% for Americans under 35
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
I don't think the average American realizes how much Trump's Iran war fucked up the entire Middle East, and the amount of death and destruction it will cause for years, even decades to come. The second and third-order consequences are gonna be CATASTROPHIC, and we're already seeing this in Yemen and Lebanon, and it's just getting started
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
🧵Some moments in history become inflection points. The US buying Russian diesel is one of them. It shows the administration doesn't recognize Russia's neo-imperialist goals or what's at stake. Bringing peace to Ukraine isn't about "making a deal"; it's about securing Europe.1/4
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Other countries might be defined by blood, territory or language. America has always been creedal, an ideal of liberty turned into a state. Its critics back-handedly recognise as much. The reason that anti-Americanism is a force in world affairs (unlike anti-Algerianism or anti-Armenianism or anti-Albanianism) is that America’s enemies acknowledge that it stands for something. That something is the package represented by personal autonomy, limited government, constitutional rule, regular elections and private enterprise – in a word, freedom. A bias towards freedom has, until now, characterised US foreign policy. A people habituated to liberty immediately saw what was wrong with Nazism and Communism. Which is why current US foreign policy is so shocking to pro-Americans. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of those rare occasions when we can clearly identify the aggressor. Vladimir Putin sought to annex a neighbour that offered him no threat – a neighbour that had given up its nuclear weapons in return for a promise that its sovereignty would be respected within its existing borders. Who guaranteed that promise? Britain, the United States and (never forget) Russia. Donald Trump is backing a belligerent dictatorship against a beleaguered democracy. Putin is the one leader he never disparages. He threatens annexation against Denmark, muses about handing away British territory, wages economic war on Canada. But not Russia. Never Russia. Now Trump is buying diesel from Russia, potash from Belarus, minerals from China – all because he doesn’t want to buy them from Canada, which has stood at America’s side in war after war. American friends, can you not see what this is doing, not just to America’s standing, but to the free world which your fathers have built since 1941? Trump is bringing down the international system from which the US has been the chief beneficiary. And for what? To drink liberal tears? God help us.
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🥵
Pasadena is trending towards an average low temperature for week 1 of October of around 76°F, a value 10°F above the previous record holder and *25°F* warmer than the average at the start of the 1900s! Just mind-blowing. Anyone who says this is normal for L.A is very wrong.
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
There's two kinds of countries in the global bond market sell-off: those that are seeing yields rise more than the global average and those that are below. The dividing line is debt. If ever there was an argument for responsible fiscal policy, this is it. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Brookings just published a brutally honest paper on what the AI buildout is costing America. A Columbia economist added up every data center, chip, power line and cooling system the US plans to build for AI, and the total reads like a warning to anyone with a pension. $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032. That's 3.6% of the entire US economy, every year, for eight years. No American infrastructure boom has come close. The railroad boom of the 1800s, the usual benchmark, peaked at about 2.2% of GDP. Canals, electrification, the interstate highways and the internet all came in smaller. The numbers are rough. Big tech's spending on AI infrastructure went from $97 billion in 2020 to about $400 billion in 2025, and it's on track for $800 billion next year. Over $1.3 trillion in debt is already committed to it. A growing share of that money moves through private credit, special-purpose vehicles and off-balance-sheet deals, where outsiders struggle to see who holds the risk. The economist stopped short of calling it a bubble. He said it's too early to compare it to the credit booms that ended in crashes, and he still doubts the payoff. "Silicon Valley wants all of us to believe that this is a miracle technology... it has to generate trillions of dollars of revenues to be financeable. I'm just not sure how likely it is." His main recommendation is to measure the exposure and make it public now, while the money is still moving, before a downturn reveals where it sits. I've been asking the AI labs for the same thing all week. Show us the incidents, show us the debt, show us who's exposed. Whose savings are underneath it when the bill comes due?
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Hmmmm
Hartnett: Today’s "AI Big 10" (Mag 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron) is 41% of US market cap, which is where all previous major bubbles peaked
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Stocks are beating Bonds like nothing we've seen in over 50 years 👀 This is starting to get extreme. It's stretched well beyond average, and the thing is, extremes don't last...
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
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Charlie Rahilly retweeted
Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Hurricane Polo. Simply incredible.
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Creating a very unstable society...
Workers now capture the smallest share of business income on record
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