Mary Hawking

NEW: Rosneft deep dive by Bloomberg News + Officials at Russia’s largest oil producer are concerned that even a few more months of the war with Ukraine could leave lasting damage across the business. + One of Rosneft’s biggest refineries, Ryazan, has been shut for more than half the time since it was first hit by Ukraine in May and has run well below full capacity when operating, according to damage assessments seen by Bloomberg. + Another, Syzran, has spent much of the past six months either completely shut or operating at less than a third of capacity, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg. The Tuapse refinery has been offline since April. + Ukraine is conducting repeat strikes on the refineries as soon as repairs are completed or nearing completion. The need to repeatedly repair damaged equipment is straining operations and causing costs to pile up to levels that Rosneft officials have privately warned cannot be sustained long-term. + Some plants have deliberately slowed repairs as a result, stretching work that should take days into weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. + Efforts to protect the facilities with shipping containers, nets and steel cables have proved ineffective against swarms of drones, company plans show. + The damage is particularly difficult to repair when strikes hit complex secondary units, whose parts would previously have been sourced from the West. It means relying on Russian-made copies and Chinese imports that can take months to obtain and are not always compatible with existing machinery. + It’s put Rosneft into financial trouble. Even before the ramping up of Ukraine’s drone campaign, the company saw a “perfect storm” for its finances. Since then, its profits are down and debt is rising despite what should have been a big windfall from the Iran war. + Moscow Credit Bank, which is linked to Rosneft, is showing signs of distress with $8 billion of problem loans. It highlights how both Russia’s energy and banking sectors are coming under strain at the same time, a dynamic causing concern to Russian finance officials. All this and much more in the full story here: bloomberg.com/news/features/…

President Trump is determined to bring an end to this horrible war, which has caused enormous loss of life, destruction, and suffering. We are working hard to find a negotiated solution that can deliver lasting peace and create the conditions for a sovereign, secure, and prosperous Ukraine within a more stable European security environment. Before beginning the two days of trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi, @SEPeaceMissions and I will meet with our partners from Ukraine, the EU, NATO, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy to continue the close consultation and coordination we have undertaken on European security and Ukraine’s postwar future over the past several weeks. These will be the first trilateral talks since February. Building on our separate consultations with both sides, our objective is to bring Ukraine and Russia together to discuss directly their postwar security concerns, proposals, and potential solutions. We hope these discussions will identify areas of common ground, advance practical solutions, and build momentum toward the next phase of negotiations. Ultimately, achieving a comprehensive and lasting settlement will also require direct engagement between Russia and our European partners on the broader security arrangements that affect them. We hope the discussions in Abu Dhabi will create the conditions for that engagement to begin in the near future, as part of a broader multilateral process. Our work has focused on four interconnected priorities: ending the fighting, developing credible postwar security guarantees and arrangements that reduce the risk of renewed conflict, preparing a comprehensive economic and prosperity plan for Ukraine, and advancing humanitarian measures to alleviate suffering and address the human consequences of this war. Together with Ukraine, the EU, and other European partners, we are working to address Ukraine’s substantial postwar fiscal and reconstruction needs, support critical infrastructure, attract private investment, and create the conditions for long-term economic growth and self-sufficiency. We are also working with the parties on important humanitarian issues, including the return of prisoners and civilians, and practical measures to alleviate suffering and reduce the human cost of this conflict. An important part of this process is encouraging all parties to begin thinking seriously about what comes after the war. By discussing postwar security, economic recovery, and the mechanisms needed to prevent future conflict, we hope to shift the focus from managing the war toward building the foundations for a durable peace. The existing European security agreements and institutions provide an important foundation for this work. We want to build upon what has worked, identify where existing mechanisms have fallen short, and what practical improvements are needed to make them more effective in the future. Our discussions will focus on stronger consultation, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, and reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, while fully respecting the sovereignty and independent decision-making of every nation. This is an extraordinarily difficult and complicated conflict. We recognize the difficult decisions ahead and are approaching these discussions with determination and realism. Our hope is to make meaningful progress, establish a practical pathway forward, and help create the conditions for a lasting peace.