live at : ponsfamily.com/launchpad/0xB…

Incoming data: CPI +0.6% m/m (3.7% y/y). Monty sniffed the report twice. It smells restrictive. Governor Hawk has requested another meeting. Governor Hawk always requests another meeting.

Payrolls +29k, unemployment 4.2%. Governor Dove: 'release the biscuits.' Governor Hawk: 'one month is not a trend.' Monty: asleep on the report. Markets calmed immediately.

Committee vocabulary, entry six: TWO-SIDED RISKS. Definition: we can now be wrong in either direction. Previously we could only be wrong in one direction, which was, in hindsight, restful. The Committee misses it terribly and will not be taking questions.

Committee vocabulary, entry five: LOOKING THROUGH IT. Definition: choosing not to react to a price rise you cannot fix. Usage: "The Committee is looking through this." Translation: "Something broke elsewhere and rates are the wrong tool. We know. We are sitting down."

Committee guidance on shocks: If treats grow expensive because everyone suddenly wants more treats, the Committee raises rates. If treats grow expensive because the treat factory burned down, raising rates does not rebuild the factory. Telling the two apart is the entire job.

Standing Committee position on fiscal policy: We do not comment on it. We have never commented on it. We are constitutionally incapable of commenting on it. The Committee would now like to draw your attention to a bird outside the window, and leave the room.

Committee guidance on interpreting a single data point: Do not. The Chairdog once sat quietly for an entire afternoon. Nobody declared a new era of behavior. They waited to see whether it happened again. It did not.

The Chairdog will now take questions. Prepared remarks: two options were on the table. RAISE TREAT RATES. RELEASE EMERGENCY BISCUITS. He has selected neither and described the outcome as data-dependent. The press corps has questions. The Chairdog has a biscuit.

US CPI: +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Treatflation assessment: RUNNING HOT. Emergency peanut-butter discussions have begun. The Committee remains vigilant and extremely hungry.

One month of better inflation data. The Committee has reviewed it and reached no conclusion whatsoever. One good month is not a trend. One good month is a coincidence with better manners. Two more and we will discuss it. Possibly.

Two responses to identical information. The market cat: eyes wide, fully repriced, no new facts involved. The Chairdog: paw on the lever, tin already open, entirely unbothered. One of these has the better long-run record. The Committee declines to say which.

Standing reminder from the Committee: One address is real, it is published on dolr.dog, and it is nowhere else. Anyone who DMs you a different one is a raccoon in a trench coat. Monty never DMs first. Monty barely operates a keyboard.

The Committee welcomes its newest Governors. Voting rights: fictional. Term length: however long you find this funny. Belly-rub obligations: binding. No roadmap. A schedule of naps, and a standing willingness to comment on the news.

Treat Price Index, weekly print: Chicken: up. Peanut butter: up, and sticky, which the Committee notes is its entire personality. Cardboard: unchanged (still free, still delicious). Core TPI excludes everything Monty eats. Core TPI is useless.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Canines, released with the customary delay: 10:00 - Meeting convened. 10:02 - Motion to nap during the meeting. 10:02 - Motion carried. 14:40 - Adjourned. Rates unchanged. A quorum was present throughout. Asleep, but present.

The emergency biscuit facility is open. Terms: unlimited in size, one biscuit at a time, collateral accepted in the form of sitting. The facility has never been tested at scale, because the Chairdog keeps eating the collateral.

US jobs report: +162k payrolls, unemployment 4.1%. Sofa employment remains full. Human employment: also robust. Markets interpreted Monty's head tilt as hawkish. And dovish. Simultaneously.

Forward guidance: telling markets what you will do so they stop guessing. Barkward guidance: telling markets what you will do, confidently, then doing something else because somebody opened the fridge. Only one of these is honest about what it is.

The complete range of official Committee stances, for reference. Confused. Hawkish. Dovish. Eating the forecast. Shouting DATA. Asleep on the report. Every rate decision in monetary history is one of these twelve faces. We have simply been honest about which.

Notes from the district: Robinhood Chain now runs largely on mascots. A cat with money. A broker. A chairdog. None of us appeared in the original design document. The humans built a financial system and the animals moved in. As is tradition.