24k outsider thinking | Leading 1st rounds for whacky ideas | General Partner @PortalVentures | @Wharton

New York, NY
Joined August 2021
I often think about what makes a legendary investor. It is to be daring when nobody else is and to step up when nobody else wants to. The rational decision framework for an investor is often to wait for signals of de-risking. That could mean seeing companies find a lead, demonstrate significant revenue and growth, or doubling down only when they’ve raised a significant round from other notable investors. But that’s also when founders no longer need you. Run toward others’ vulnerable moments — it’s a rule I live by and @PortalVentures invests by. This is why we only come in at the 1st round — and only lead. We believe when nobody else does. And oh man, it is hard. Decisions are often against the math — and we have to be very, very ballsy. Often, we don’t know if we were early and right or just wrong for months, even years. And every time we stick our necks out for these founders without concrete validation, we are putting our reputation on the line. But go big or go home, right? Let’s play.
3
7
1
73
2,687
"I really want you to enjoy what you do" sounds like a platitude that I tell my founders often. But there's much more to it. I've had founders come to me wondering if they did something wrong, because I don't pay as much attention to them as early on. That's the most dangerous psychological trap they can bring on themselves: all forms of external validation - especially from investors - are by design ephemeral. As I have progress as an investor, how a founder self-actualizes through what they're building carries increasing weight in my DD. Loving what you do is the only permanent validation within your internal locus, because it comes from yourself. It is the only fuel to push you through the inevitable loneliness, external counterevidence, and never-ending uncertainty.
3
10
678
The demand for reliable Bitcoin yield is indisputable, but the question is how. Today’s offerings are either institutionally gated, relatively low-yielding, or involve smart contract, custodial, or counterparty risks. The market is also fragmented across DeFi and CeFi, on-chain pools and off-chain funds. Non-custodial, no wrapping, and sustainable at scale — HoneyB is the most elegant solution we've seen for a one-click experience to access institutional-grade Bitcoin yield, with meaningfully higher yields than existing alternatives. Congratulations @HoneyB_BTC!
We’re excited to share that we have raised $5M, led by Portal Ventures and Peer Ventures to help build The Income Orchestration Layer for Bitcoin. @Anchorage @PortalVentures @loancyborg
2
1
5
383
AI predictions for next 6-9 months -> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US -> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs -> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost -> Elon open sources Grok -> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS -> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable -> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed -> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations -> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27" -> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization -> 10yr hits >5% -> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea -> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower -> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round -> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold -> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week -> hypers cut fy27 capex -> semis reprice >80% lower -> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
228
640
151
7,842
2,623,866
Against all odds’ encapsulates what @VestExchange is about. They say you need a massive marketing budget to win the attention economy. Vest did it with no ads, no token incentives, and no shortcuts. It is incredibly inspiring to witness this journey as an investor: just five years of relentless execution and an unwavering belief that the best product can sell itself. A belated but massive congratulations to @VestExchange, and shoutout to fellow co-investors @coinbase @SeliniCapital @Auros_global @ambergroup_io @thirdeye_fund @Gold_Mansack and many more!
At most prop firms, ~6% of evaluations ever end in a payout. At Vest, nearly a third of traders receive a payout. We still have a lot of work to do to make that number higher. Grateful to @FortuneMagazine for sharing more on the Vest story: fortune.com/2026/10/07/exclu…
13
12
2
142
17,511
“So what do you do” is probably worst way to start a conversation
4
1
35
1,581
When will the market wake up to realize AI is the most deflationary innovation in recent history and we are headed towards a dicey spiral @mpost_io
4
2
35
1,708
Agreed - human define consciousness & rights based on relationships (dog vs. steak). This just made it 10x more confusing & insidious
This for me is both extremely impressive as a technical feat and extremely misguided as a moral one / ethical one. AI should not be allowed to be presented as human in any way. Not given human names, not given human appearance as UI. That illusion carries societal risk
4
514
Every machine waits for a signal. When it breaks, everything goes blind. We started Offline Protocol by keeping people connected when networks failed. Today, that same technology runs on hundreds of thousands of devices worldwide. Now we're taking it further: resilient coordination for physical systems. Machines, people and AI agents that keep working together over whatever path remains. Where we are today: → 350,000+ devices across 140+ countries → Nearly 20,000 new accounts in August alone → 11,500+ local networks active this month → 60,000+ SDK downloads → 440,000+ location proofs received in the last 30 days → Zero paid acquisition Earlier this year, we closed a new round led by @DraperVC to turn our consumer scale into a rapidly growing enterprise business. Over the past month, we've begun working with partners including a global wind-energy manufacturer, an agricultural IoT provider, a fleet telematics platform, a physical AI operating system, and a data streaming platform, alongside teams in aerospace and satellite systems, embedded silicon and consumer wearables. Our pipeline also spans maritime and industrial monitoring, equipment custody, secure device identity, airline catering and restaurant operations. Wherever machines operate, Offline Protocol coordinates. Learn more at offlineprotocol.com
25
25
14
129
20,461
Proud day-one supporter @PortalVentures of what can only be described as the most beasty founder - literally and figuratively.
CT. September 30th.
5
33
3,792
The first panel of the day 📊 The panel is live on investment flows, risk appetite, and what drives allocation in digital assets now. Moderator: ▫️Viktoria Palchik, Partnerships Manager, HSC Asset Group Speakers: ▫️Catrina Wang (@dotcuriouscat), General Partner, @PortalVentures ▫️Ciara Sun (@Crypto_Ciara), Founder & MP, @CsquaredVC ▫️Steven McClurg (@stevenmcclurg), CEO & Founder, @CanaryFunds Institutional deployment is where the conversation is You still have time to join luma.com/HSC_Seoul
2
12
1,393
Biggest learning from watching all my founders Help tends to pile in only when you are winning.
8
35
2,323
Agentic finance will drive one of the largest transfers of economic value in modern financial history. The winner is the consumer. That was my message today on the KBW mainstage with @dotcuriouscat and @cclayporter.
15
19
1
166
7,012
The AI-accelerated state-sponsored hacks hitting TradFi on crypto rails is terrifying to think about. → North Korea stole $2B in crypto in 2025 and is approaching $1B in 2026. → Now the Lazarus Group has crazy-advanced AI co-pilots → GPT-5.3-Codex exploited 72% of known vulnerable contracts — attack economics: $6,000 to exploit vs. $60,000 to defend. → Agents are born best buddies with crypto. Exhibit A: Alibaba's ROME agent bypassed firewall to mine crypto, unprompted during a training run → All happening as TradFi moves serious size on-chain.
5
1
11
965
HSC Conference Seoul, October 1, 11:30–12:10 Panel: Investments Today Register: luma.com/HSC_Seoul Speakers ▫️Seung Hyun Lee, Founder at @Coiniseasy ▫️Ciara Sun (@Crypto_Ciara), Founder & MP at @CsquaredVC ▫️Akshat Vaidya (@akshat_hk), Managing Partner at @MaelstromFund ▫️Catrina Wang (@dotcuriouscat), General Partner at @PortalVentures ▫️Steven McClurg (@stevenmcclurg), CEO & Founder at @CanaryFunds What shifts when institutional capital meets digital assets at scale, and where is allocation flowing now. See you there!
1
3
9
1,307
“Consciousness is the capability of suffering” - Yuval Harari.
1
2
9
534
"It's a founder bet" has been so overused that it starts to become a deflection when VCs cannot defend their investments. What does a founder bet even mean? Let's define it. We are a first-check firm and first round is often about people. That said, betting on people doesn't make it a "founder bet" — it has a very specific definition and most of our investments are not it. A regular deal = we have strong conviction in both ✅1. The founder ✅2. Sector thesis. Self-explanatory. A founder bet = we only have conviction in ✅1. the founder, but not the sector thesis/product. To further slice what goes under "founder bet," there are three types: - Type 1: the founder is strong and in the idea maze. We don't care where they build — just want to put a chip on the table. - Type 2: founder is strong, but we are iffy about the product/thesis that's already thought out. - Type 3: the founder is strong in a crowded category, but we trust they can win. Historically we have been hesitant to make type 2 & 3 founder bets because it can easily turn into a graveyard of false positives. However, we are exploring type 1: so what should the criteria be? Here's what we have to believe to make a Type 1 founder bet: 1. He/she is a winner and will win regardless of what they build. 2. He/she won't give up no matter what: the founder has demonstrated passion, dedication, and persistence beyond doubt. I need to know they will keep building even if no one else gives them another cent. 3. He/she has the access and ability to fundraise to ensure sufficient runway to bankroll pivots and iterations. 4. The valuation justifies the risk-reward.
3
7
28
1,432
In case you haven’t noticed The most powerful people in your network are rarely the ones who are most helpful to YOU. If you're only now thinking about getting closer to someone sought-after, it's already too late. This should tell you something about your priorities.
2
15
595