not saying this is the bottom, but did these people not look at the BTC $15k bottom in 2022?
btc sat at $15-16k level for 3 MONTHS before starting its move to 125k
just because price sits at a certain level for a period of time doesn't mean it is guaranteed to go lower
base case still looking to play out for $NBIS (swipe the July lows at $135-145)
Elon’s posts about neoclouds dying obviously has an agenda considering it coincides with SpaceX looking to become the biggest player in the neocloud space
but is he wrong? it isn’t incorrect to point out that every neocloud relies a lot on financing of some kind, and without access to financing the entire business model collapses
but it is also obvious that not every neocloud is the same. if the entire business model was cooked no matter what, then SpaceX also wouldn’t be doing it
multiple things can be true:
- Elon wants SpaceX to become the only, or at least the majorly dominant, compute provider. and so is incentivised to see other providers fail
- the neocloud business is at risk from a financing perspective. those who cannot overcome this risk/challenge will fail
- not every existing neocloud operates the same. they have different liabilities, debts, access to capital, management teams, foundations for expansion, access to power/land etc. if one neocloud business collapses it doesn’t mean every single other one also will
- compute is still in demand and that demand isn’t expected to go away yet. GPU prices are still going up (even GPUs from generations ago)
unfortunately I do think this is bearish for ALL neoclouds (except SpaceX) in at least the short term, hence my base case is another leg lower from here
the path forward to me is simple: every neocloud whether NBIS IREN CRWV or others, will need to convince the market that THEIR business model is the one that can work and will survive. if they can convince the market of this, then their share price will reflect that
but as it stands the market is not convinced on any of them hence share prices getting nuked
no of course the $4m microcap shitter with $200k in liquidity isn't candling just because we are showing it on stream right now
seen a few people point it out now, but it is pretty depressing how this entire "bull run" in crypto since August has just been 5 daily candles for BTC
the other 63 daily candles in this time period have just been chop
every alt also topped in September and has just been mostly down only since then
wanted to jot down some longer thoughts on the "AI trade" in general:
want to preface this by saying I don't think the "AI trade" is dead. AI, robotics, and space are clearly a big part of the future and so it is crazy to think the entire trade is completely finished
with that being said, I think there is still a lot of complacency within the whole trade right now
and this is from someone who still holds a good chunk of AI stocks
a lot of the posts I see about these stocks that have nuked (memory, neocloud, power, other "bottlenecks") are
"this price doesn't make sense, the numbers are so good!"
"the forward PE is so low!"
"their 2027 ARR is equal to their marketcap!"
"YoY growth is 400%!"
"this stock is the cheapest it has ever been based on X metric"
"they can buy their entire stock's marketcap with their revenue!"
and while all that might be true, it still sounds all too like the typical things you hear during complacency/anxiety/denial phases of market cycles
people are still too hopeful that pure math means the charts somehow cannot physically go lower
micron is still up almost 3x on the year. sandisk is still up almost 6x on the year. these charts can fall a lot lower AND still be up massively on the year
even in tradfi, I still believe price drives narrative not the other way around
if memory stocks drop another 50% from here, people will say "oh it dropped this much despite a forward PE of 3 because china is inventing new memory"
it is always easy to explain why price moved a certain way in hindsight because there an unlimited number of narratives that can be assigned to a chart no matter which way it moves
based on the above I still think there is further to fall. I'm not capitulating on everything I hold, as I think further drops are just buying opportunities rather than the entire trade being over
but I think people who are overexposed or overleveraged and relying on 2027 revenue numbers to somehow form a magical unbreakable price barrier will be shocked at how far things can drop
either way I hope we bottom soon as I'm always a bull at heart and don't enjoy seeing prices go down
would advise to stay off-chain for this period
every single bad actor/insider/deployer on-chain is now incentivised to rug, bundle, and scam as hard as they can for these two weeks
you already know the "winners" of this competition will be the same people already on pumpfun's payroll
still on for this base case for $NBIS
don't see how it doesn't at least swipe the July lows
as mentioned here, my base case is still that the July lows get swept and we tap the Oct 2025 highs
with how weak neoclouds are I can’t see this 160-170 level being the bottom sadly
need one more panic move down pre-earnings and then we might bottom
$NBIS
sorry @blknoiz06 but this is utterly delusional
crypto is a massively negative sum game due to how much is being pumped out of market by protocol “fees”, scammers, rugs, and general bad actors
all that money is extracted on a daily basis and permanently removed from crypto
the vast majority of people who touch crypto lose money. a lot lose everything
you and others promote pumpfun as a legitimate way to “onboard” retail. sure if you think lining them up one by one at the rape factory counts as “onboarding”
i have nothing against Kimchi and think it’s lame to hate on a 22 year old kid. but he made his money by rugging tokens on solana not by trading, and now from being a paid KOL. so how can you “learn how to trade” from him lmao
people have better odds just going to an actual casino and playing blackjack than by convincing themselves they can become “the next kimchi” by signing up to pumpfun 😆
the rise of traders as celebrities makes a lot of sense to me
most people can't realistically become the next LeBron, but they can learn how to trade from someone who started out just like them
that relatability, combined with the potential to make money, creates a different kind of connection between traders and their audiences
i expect that to become a bigger part of the social trading
funny thing is this guy did actually make $50m publicly off TRUMP
but then proceeded to lose it all gambling on shitters in the proceeding months
hence is now shilling bundled 100k mcap toppers to try and make it back 😆
This quoted post is unavailable.
i don't usually care about the "morality" of my investments, but I do truly hope pumpfun fails somehow
begrudgingly, i'm bullish on the token and actually hold some (do you want to make money or do you want to be right?)
but their entire business model just being a rape factory, and the fact they have infinite money to construct said rape factory does make me want to root for its downfall
hopefully one day
as mentioned here, my base case is still that the July lows get swept and we tap the Oct 2025 highs
with how weak neoclouds are I can’t see this 160-170 level being the bottom sadly
need one more panic move down pre-earnings and then we might bottom
$NBIS
update for $NBIS
I'm not a big TA person, but the stock had clearly been building up to a big move in one direction or another. sadly it broke out the triangle in a pretty significant down move
not really fussed about the neocloud-specific fud when the ENTIRE AI market is down. if it was only neoclouds nuking then sure, but this is just part of a broad tech sell-off
narrative follows price and so it isn't surprising that all the neocloud fud comes out after price has gone down 35% in a week. where was this fud when the price was $250 a week ago?
if we bounce significantly next week you can bet all this fud disappears and everyone will have claimed to have bought the bottom
the 200d SMA served has served as a support for the entire move up, and it briefly bounced on Thursday, before nuking right back below on Friday with no strength into the weekly close. unfortunately, unless we get a pretty quick recovery next week, I think this is probably good evidence the price is looking to go lower
like many others have already pointed out, the obvious next level down if looking for an entry/bottom is the $135-140 range. this would sweep below the July low, hit the October 2025 highs, as well as the April 2026 retest after the stock broke out of its ~5 month accumulation. I'm not currently buying anymore until we get there
I think a worst case scenario is the stock re-entering that Oct 2025 - March 2026 range between $80-120 and would probably wipe out most NBIS investors' YTD gains
will we get a v-reversal like in July? I don't know. in July there was Leopold blowing up which marked the bottom. do we have something obvious like that this time?
my base case currently is another 10-20% drop from here to swipe the July lows and touch the Oct 2025 highs, and then bounce + start to reaccumulate
again I'm not paying attention to the neocloud-specific fud *yet*, as I still think this is just part of the broader AI sell off
