Humanity has only perhaps one or two more years left of living in vaguely normal circumstances

The most prescient AI forecasters I know: * Carl Shulman * Daniel Kokotajlo (What 2026 looks like, AI 2027) * Leopold (Situational Awareness) * Ryan Greenblatt (#2 in 2025 forecasting competition) All seem to expect broadly beyond-human AI 2028-2029.

To make it through this alive and happy we have to dodge: • Severe human misuse (esp bioweapons from states / terrorists) • Severe human concentration of power (AI lab or gov) • Rogue AI (including for decades after AIs clearly no longer need humans to survive) • A US-China or other war prompted by AI disruption • Severe economic disempowerment, or the world just generally being unpleasant and unfulfiling Many difficult gates to pass through, none of which we've made massive progress on so far. (On top of that to avoid a moral catastrophe we also have to make sure we never accidentally make our AIs into moral patients who are enslaved or suffering.)

Read about how @JDVance and others fell for a lie about Volodymyr Zelensky concocted by agents of Russia's Presidential Administration. And how the Vice President's falling for it was collected in a file sent directly to the Kremlin. Inside Putin's "Doppelgänger" operation, based on leaked correspondence between the PA and Russia's Agency for Social Design: theins.press/en/inv/298359

2026: a hospital TV says 300 million jobs are gone to AI. 2050: she shows her mum what it all became. "WAIT TILL YOU SEE IT" — a Slopcore ballad. Made by AI. Zero human edits. Just prompting. Bring tissues. I brought film grain. 💙