Michael Carl

The world’s leading seasonal forecast models have never shown California this wet, not even in 1997–98. Europe’s Copernicus climate service (C3S) just released its October outlook, combining 10 seasonal forecast models from 9 weather agencies. The C3S average calls for 156% of normal precipitation statewide this Dec–Feb, the wettest California winter forecast these models have produced, wetter even than their reruns of the 1997–98 super El Niño. Out of 454 total model members, only 8% show a drier-than-average Dec–Feb statewide, while about 13% are explicitly forecasting California’s wettest winter on record. A record-wet winter is now more likely than a dry one. This far out, forecasts are about odds, not certainties. But 9 in 10 runs come in at or above normal, and even the driest 10% of runs average 88% of normal. The odds have never leaned this heavily toward an exceptionally wet winter, though a below-normal winter is still possible, but extremely unlikely.

The hottest summer in American history is no longer 1936; it is now officially 2026.

In just few hours, we will have rare triplet hurricanes across the Pacific. El Niño is in full force.