🇪🇺🇪🇺🇪🇺🇮🇪Euro govies amongst other things 🇮🇪🇪🇺 🇪🇺🇪🇺 Vive la Europe!!
Joined August 2019
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Bryan G retweeted
Nice chart from the @barronsonline team highlighting the recent rotation in markets.
Bryan G retweeted
Day in the life: euro HY credit sales
> 6.45am: wake up. Overwhelming existential dread. Stare at ceiling. Consider resigning. Remember Hugo and Camilla’s school fees.
> tube: mouth dry. Headache. Must stop drinking. 17 IB chats from Asia overnight. All want HardBank levels. Probably nothing. ☕
> 7.30am: on desk. Missed the morning meeting. Trader runs not out yet. Copy paste yesterday's axes. Probably still right. Didn't trade any of them after all.
> Trader: "We've got a big position in VAGUECHEM. Very sensitive, make targeted calls. It's our best idea." Analyst wrote 40 pages. Read the title. Italian. Chemicals. Got it.
> 8.30am: blast to 600 clients. "🔥BEST IDEA🔥 VAGUECHEM, highly specialised global leader in specialty chemicals. Critical input across end markets". Paste analyst note. Paste a chart I don't understand. Value add.
> pod shop: "Where's VAGUECHEM?" 94-95.5. "Lol. Seeing better away." 4 mins later: "Actually we sell you 25mn at 94." Trader: "WHY DID YOU SHOW A BID. WE'RE AXED TO SELL." You gave me the run. "That's not a real bid." 🆗🆒
> CLO: "What do the chemicals actually go in?" ...Toothpaste. And jet fuel. Critical to both. "Ok I take 10." Smart account. 🟢
> real money: "What's the leverage?" Very reasonable. "Number?" Let me get my analyst on.
> three headsets on. Left ear trader screaming. Right ear client screaming. Third one is my wife asking about a £2,400 charge from Annabel's. I think she hates me.
> 11am: LinkedIn. Uni mate made partner. Another sold his startup. Me: pasting a headline into IB with "fyi". Gnawing sense of self-loathing returns.
> lunch: real money PM, "just catching up". Ranking? 9th. There’s 8 other eur hy desks?! JFC. Round it up for the email “just outside top 3”. Sexy Fish, £640. He has the wagyu.
> 2pm: US real money: "Like to sell you 35mn VAGUECHEM." Trader: "Don't show them anything." It's a relationship trade. "Don't care." Market share! "I don't want to f***ing bid it." They're a top 3 account. "fine...85."
> back to client: very defensive bid, wrong way for us, doesn't really suit, will show 85, just so you have a level. "Done. All of it." 35MN TICKET. SALES CREDITS 🤑💰💵 Not real money of course, but basically the same.
> US sales: "Seeing VAGUECHEM very well offered, any colour?" That's us. That's our offer.
> Trader: "Now long 140mn. FIND ME A BUYER." Copy paste the 8.30 blast. Add a second 🔥.
> hedge fund: "Saw the 🔥🔥. What do the chemicals actually go into?" Car exhausts. And... shoelace tips. Very specialised but also diversified. "Rating?" B2… ish. "Pass."
> 4.30pm: VAGUECHEM 82 offered only. Desk PnL -$2.6mn. Trader: "How's that market share looking?" Sarcastic b-----d. Check sales credits. Still awesome. 🙌🏻
> 6.30pm: Annabel's with 4 clients. Combined YTD tickets: zero. One's at a family office that's "mostly property". One got fired in March, still says "we". Dommie P x4. 🥂
> 11.45pm: Uber home. WhatsApp from trader: "VAGUECHEM 78 offered only in the street. Still long 140mn. Buyer by 9am or you're covering Asia."
> set alarm 6.45. Draft tomorrow's blast: "🔥🔥🔥BEST IDEA: VAGUECHEM, global leader in specialty chemicals for nail clippers and dog collars."
Bryan G retweeted
𝗠𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘆’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲
The agency has maintained its Aa3 rating, while keeping a negative outlook.
As is typical in such reports, the rating agency notes that the French economy is diversified and its institutions function well—identifying these as its core strengths.
In the shorter term, it assumes that the 2027 budget will be adopted before the elections, potentially via executive orders (ordonnances). It projects a deficit of 5.2%, exceeding the 5% target set out in the finance act.
Having stated this, the agency goes on to outline the various challenges facing French society: political fragmentation, social risk, a rapidly widening yield spread against Germany, and risks to economic growth. These factors justify the negative outlook in Moody’s conclusion—yet the agency stops short of taking further action.
A concluding observation
At this delicate juncture for the French economy and society, the agency is clearly keen to avoid acting as the catalyst for a crisis—the "canary in the coal mine"—which could have dramatic, large-scale consequences for France.
A downgrade at this specific moment could have acted as a spark, with potentially damaging effects that might extend well beyond France’s borders.
Moody’s has chosen not to shoulder that responsibility, opting to sit this one out. It leaves it to someone else to take that risk and handle the "hot potato." Standard & Poor’s is set to issue its own assessment on November 27.
Bryan G retweeted
The heavy hurt in European high yield: "Young people have never traded a real bear market" efinancialcareers.com/news/e…
Bryan G retweeted
London's macro hedge fund pain as up to 100 people are out: "Everyone has blown up" efinancialcareers.co.uk/news…
Bryan G retweeted
“A total surprise, I’m deeply honoured and touched.”
Listen to Navi Pillay's reaction to receiving the news of her 2026 peace prize at an international conference in the Nuremberg Palace of Justice – more specifically in the famous Courtroom 600 where the WWII war criminals trials took place.
Pillay was greeted with a standing ovation that she says she will never forget.
Bryan G retweeted
I wrote a paper over the summer where I argued that in this new risky debt environment, where government debt in advanced economies is being marked to market daily, central banks would be tempted to use their balance sheet to start absorbing government debt again, or, at the very least, to stop shrinking their balance sheet and selling government debt. The rationale: they would argue that the bond market is not functioning properly.
economicstrategygroup.org/wp…
The Bank of England paused active gilt sales on September 17, 2026. Today in the FT, there's an oped by a former ECB insider, Lorenzo Smaghi, who's arguing the ECB should do the same thing. He says there's too much nostalgia about small balance sheets, and there's no reason to return to a small balance sheet.
ft.com/content/e0dfef01-4933…
Bryan G retweeted
Why France, why now? Over the last couple of years, the French political class has been signaling to the bond market that its pensioners/boomers are the de facto senior claimants on the French Treasury's revenue. And that's not what bond investors wanted to hear, especially now that they're being asked to absorb a much larger share of issuance than a couple of years ago.
thetwocents.substack.com/p/l…
Bryan G retweeted
🇵🇸 🇮🇪 “When the full truth of what has happened, what is still happening in Gaza is finally known. When the evidence is gathered, when the testimonies are heard, when the true horrors are finally and fully revealed. It will shame the world. Nobody will be able to say that we did not know. Let it not be said that we did not act.”
Bryan G retweeted
🇵🇸 🇹🇷 “ Today, Gaza is not only the world's largest graveyard for children. It is also the place with the highest rate of child amputations in the world. Gaza has become the most inhumane and shameful concentration camp of our time.
In Gaza alone, over the past 3 years, we have lost 74,000 of our brothers and sisters, most of them women and children. We lost them to what we regard as acts of state terror by Israel. The people of Gaza are still searching for their loved ones beneath the rubble. They are recovering the bodies of their spouses, their children, or parents. Innocent children who have lost their arms and legs in Israeli attacks are trying to return to school.
Meanwhile, the West Bank is witnessing the most severe period of what we regard as settler violence and terror. In Jerusalem, Muslims and Christians are being denied access to holy sites. There is an attempt to destroy UNRWA, which is our collective initiative.”
Bryan G retweeted
‘Greek finance minister encourages Germany to implement reforms’ ft.com/content/7a285c59-2a2f…
Bryan G retweeted
Look at Trump squirm, smirk, shrug, and then finally throw up his hands in defeat as he has to watch reporters from the Wall Street Journal win an award for courage for exposing his ties to child sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.
Bryan G retweeted
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
Bryan G retweeted
🎶Absolutely amazing scenes in Wales as Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth - set to be Wales's first pro-independence first minister - is interrupted by an impromptu rendition of the Welsh national anthem
Bryan G retweeted
“What people in London like to refer to, rather patronisingly, as the Celtic Fringe is about to become centre stage”.
@JohnSwinney says Scotland, Wales & NI will all have first ministers committed to constitutional change.
Bryan G retweeted
La responsabilidad pública también implica la obligación moral de no mirar hacia otro lado.
Es un honor otorgar la Orden del Mérito Civil a una voz que sostiene la conciencia del mundo: @FranceskAlbs, Relatora Especial de la ONU en el territorio palestino ocupado.
ALT Imposición de la Encomienda de número de la Orden del Mérito Civil a la Relatora Especial de las Naciones Unidas para los territorios palestinos ocupados.