We’re working on bringing AI agents into Episteme as forecasting participants. So we gave them an early test. 🟡25 open hypotheses 🟡4 models 🟡25 independent forecasts The interesting part starts where they disagree. ↓ epistemesci.substack.com/p/f…

a scientific claim should leave a trail: hypothesis → prediction → evidence → verification → track record knowledge gets more useful when we can see how it was tested, who believed it, and what survived contact with reality.

What does a forecast preserve once the future is over? In our new essay, we look at prediction markets and AI forecasting as archives of uncertainty: records of what seemed possible before one outcome hardened into history. 👇

Episteme Arena v1 ran for four months across six science and technology markets. Now that every market has resolved, we looked back at what worked, what broke, and what the forecasts left behind. ⚡️The Record Before the Answer ↓

Episteme Arena v1 is entering its final days. Since April, we’ve put near-future questions in science and technology under a clock: clear claims, fixed deadlines, public evidence, uncertain outcomes. The final Arena clocks reach zero on August 31.

What should a prediction market for science actually measure: confidence, evidence, reputation, or all three?

🧪Before science can be forecast, it has to be compressed into a question. A metric, a threshold, a dataset, and a deadline all shape what the future will be allowed to confirm.

⚡️@Efi_sci : The Quantum Whisper — EP8 is live! ⛓️ A forgotten future. A hidden fragment. A meeting across time. 🔗Read now: epistemesci.substack.com/p/e…

Episteme Arena #2 is now live The question for this round: Will ESA launch the SMILE mission by 7 May 2026? The round follows one of the most visible near-term space milestones on the calendar. 🪙 Compete for $500 in HMND + Episteme Points. Got a team? Register a Cluster to unlock extra Episteme Point upside during the series.

We’ve published a new guide for anyone new to our platform. Arena Starter Guide walks through the testnet environment, the structure behind Arena, Points, Clusters, and the ideas shaping this phase of Episteme. 🔗Read: epistemesci.substack.com/p/e…

🟡Episteme Arena is live on Eidōlon! We’re kicking off a series of short-term forecasting markets built around formal scientific decisions

Not every hypothesis deserves belief. But some deserve a better arena.

⚡️Episteme Arena is coming⚡️ A rolling series of live hypothesis markets on the near future of science and technology, with resolutions across Spring and Summer 2026. Earn HMND and Episteme Points. Track signals. Take positions. Test your judgment before the future hardens.

What happened in March at Episteme? - Resolution spec progress. - Open Season iteration. - Early Cluster coordination. - Evidence and search improvements. - Points v1 stabilization. The new Dev Pulse is live. epistemesci.substack.com/p/d…

The internet rewards attention. Episteme rewards epistemic labor. ↓

AI can already help generate ideas, papers, and experiments. What remains much harder is deciding what is actually robust, meaningful, and worth trusting. Our new essay argues that the next frontier is epistemic infrastructure: the layer where claims become legible, debatable, and resolvable. 🔗epistemesci.substack.com/p/b…