@Polymarket says 80%… but that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed One thing people misunderstand about prediction markets is that an 80% probability doesn’t mean an outcome is certain It means the market currently puts its chances at around 80% There’s still room for things to go the other way And that’s where it gets interesting One unexpected announcement, one breaking news update, and that 80% can suddenly drop to 65% or climb to 90% The market is reacting to new information, but that doesn’t mean every move is right Even when the market feels confident, the outcome can still surprise everyone

A $1.6M position on Spain to win is hard to ignore Someone is putting serious money behind one outcome, with a potential payout of nearly $2M This is what makes watching @Polymarket markets so interesting sometimes the size of a position tells its own story

I thought MOONX was mainly about the markets. Then I started looking at what people were doing around them The feed is probably one of the most interesting parts of the whole experience You can scroll through and see what other users are chasing, from normal-looking markets to some seriously wild ones You can also open a shot, see the market, the multiple and what the user is going after, then check out their profile and see their activity, hits, open shots and best multiple That makes the experience feel much more social You’re not just browsing markets. You’re seeing what other people are interested in, finding things you might not have noticed yourself, and even getting a conversation going around some of the more interesting ones And the multiple system makes the whole thing feel different too Instead of only seeing a market price, MOONX makes the potential multiple part of the experience The interesting part is that you can also experience what happens after taking a position and how the position changes before the market ends That’s where I think MOONX is trying to make interacting with Polymarket feel much simpler The markets already exist on Polymarket MOONX is building the experience around them social feed, profiles, multiples, discovery and a more gamified way of interacting with prediction markets And there’s still a lot they could build on top of this Things like Combos or even PERPS could take the experience even more interesting

France vs Belgium again… round two And honestly, I don’t think this will be another boring 1-0 France are 67¢ on @Polymarket, with Belgium at 14¢ and the draw at 20%. Almost $400K has already been traded France won the first meeting 1-0, but Belgium bounced back with a 3-0 win over Türkiye. The problem? Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended tonight France also drew 1-1 with Italy, but I still like them at home The market has France as the clear favorite, and after checking the form and team news, I’m on the same side My pick: France win Score: France 2-1 Belgium Could be another close one… but I’m backing Les Bleus to get it done again

𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐲𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 The more I study prediction markets, the more I realize how much is happening around them Here are a few things that stood out to me 🧵