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Sydney, New South Wales
Joined February 2017
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This doesn't end well.
And this chart is from 2016. The past 10 years has only seen wealth inequality get worse.
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Just 9% of the time taken for an NFL game the ball is actually in play.
For a 3.5 hour game, it is less than 20 minutes
This is a MAJOR problem in sports!
For how long the games are...so little of it is actual "game play".
Definitely creating an opportunity for new leagues (and showing the need for alternative ways to monetize beyond just media rights & ads).
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In the past 5 years, Mercado Libre's revenue is up 500% and it has inflected from unprofitable to $2 billion in annual profit.
The share price is up 5%.
Mucha gente frustrada con $MELI porque en 5 años la acción casi no se movió.
Mientras tanto, en esos 5 años las ventas se multiplicaron por 5 y el EPS por 22. Hoy pago el mismo precio por una empresa que vale muchísimo más.
Y lleva casi 8 años creciendo más de 30% interanual en dólares. Muy pocas empresas de su tamaño lo hicieron.
Sin embargo, el mercado hoy la castiga porque $MELI decide sacrificar margen para reinvertir. Si es por mí, que reinviertan todo, que el negocio siga creciendo y que el precio siga planchado, así puedo seguir comprando esta empresa por mucho tiempo más.
"Bill, I haven't had water in 48 years"
Warren Buffett is a big proponent of investing in what you know. And he knows Coca-Cola.
In our recent interview with @BillAckman, he shared a great story of having Warren Buffett over for dinner.
Full interview: youtu.be/IN8ugYE4UmE?si=r981…
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"This is a 10x if the President puts it on the list of things he's going to do"
@BillAckman thinks Fannie and Freddie could be 10x opportunities if they are removed from conservatorship and relisted.
$FNMA $FMCC
Watch the full conversation: youtu.be/IN8ugYE4UmE?si=r981…
What a day! We're still on a high from FinFest.
Thanks to all who came, the speakers who shared their time and the sponsors who backed us to put on Australia’s biggest finance festival.
Major sponsor: @betashares
Stage sponsors: @coinbase, Ausbil, Soul Patts & Sustainable Life
With all the conversation around the US midterm - here's the only chart that matters.
Over the long-term, stocks keep rising under either party.
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The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008. This is the fifth rate hike of 2026.
These 5 hikes have added $540 a month on a $700k mortgage.
The RBA now doesn't expect inflation to reach the 2-3% target until late-2027.
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The cloud backlog is almost $2.5 trillion 🤯
If this is a bubble, it is a confusing one. Quarterly revenue for Google Cloud more than doubled year-on-year and its backlog kept growing.
And despite the real money being made, the market has fallen out of love with AI stocks.
The hyperscalers are going to be just fine guys
If they want to go negative FCF for a few quarters, let them
They are doing it because they are trying to fill $2.48 TRILLION of signed revenue backlog
Google expects just over 55% of its $561B backlog to hit revenue in the next 24 months...
Oracle expects around half of its backlog to convert over the next 36 months
And Microsoft says roughly 30% of its backlog gets recognized in the next 12 months
Lastly, Andy Jassy said Amazon is installing an AI accelerator about every 14 seconds and customers are "gobbling it up" almost as fast as it goes in.
AWS just grew 39%, its fastest in nearly 5 years. Google Cloud revenue grew 103% to $30.7B. Azure grew 48%
So if the hyperscalers want to go negative FCF for a few quarters to fund this backlog and set their businesses up for even more growth in the future... that's fine by me!
Negative FCF is a real problem when you're spending money and hoping the customers show up. Here the customers already signed, and the only thing missing is the capacity to serve them
If you want to see how I'm allocating in this market, check out my real-time portfolio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
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2,000 people. 54 speakers. 43 sessions. Five stages. Food trucks, bars, activations - and a bucking bull.
That was FinFest: our biggest event yet, built to make investing more accessible and fun.
One week on, a huge thank you to everyone who helped make it happen.
Everyday investors have one huge advantage over institutions: time.
A fund manager is judged next quarter. An individual investor can set a longer clock.
Here's why legendary investor @BillAckman believes a longer time horizon is a big advantage.
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Could Howard Hughes become a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway?
We joined @BillAckman to hear his most ambitious plan yet.
Turn this home builder into a compounding machine: monetise real estate, grow its insurance platform, then invest the insurance float.
youtube.com/watch?v=IN8ugYE4…
Anthropic's growth rate is off the charts.
In the three years pre-IPO, the maker of Claude has grown revenue almost 400x.
In the three years pre-IPO, SpaceX grew revenue 1.8x.
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That’s a wrap! FinFest 2026 is in the books.
Almost 2,000 everyday Australians joined us on Saturday to hear 54 speakers across 43 sessions on 5 stages.
Thank you to everyone that joined us on the day and the sponsors that backed us to make it happen.
As part of its filing, Anthropic also shared its Q2 numbers:
- $11.56 billion in revenue, up 1,368% year-on-year
- Spent $5.56bn on compute and infrastructure, up 300% year-on-year
- Operating profit of $974 million
- Net loss of $66.3 billion, largely due to accounting changes
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Anthropic has filed to go public, reportedly targeting a mid-November IPO.
It will trade on the Nasdaq with the ticker ANT.
Terms have not been set, but it reportedly wants to raise $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation - which would make it the largest IPO in history.
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Slower revenue growth doesn’t mean slower AI adoption.
The past few weeks we've seen charts showing slower revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI.
But as this Bank of America chart shows, token usage - especially at Anthropic - keeps hitting new highs.
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Jamie Dimon on Bitcoin:
2017: “It’s a fraud”
2021: “I personally think Bitcoin is worthless”
2023: “If I was the government, I’d close it down”
2024: “I call it the pet rock”
2026: His own bank forecasts it to beat US stocks, bonds and gold over the next decade.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
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