What's the better trade, Tesla or SpaceX? My answer: It depends on WHEN the merger lands If a deal gets announced in the next month or so, then its $TSLA becuase SpaceX will need to pay a premium of $420 - $500+/share If it takes longer, I'd buy $SPCX, as it has more earnings and growth potential in the next few quarters. The market doesn't fully believe SpaceX will scale compute as fast as they say they will, so if they do, SpaceX gets repriced to the upside, Of course, Tesla's has huge upside as well with robotaxis and humanoids, but these are still many multiple quarters away from making an impact to the bottom line I own a lot of Tesla as I've been buying it for years, however since the SpaceX IPO I started moving some over into SpaceX and adding cash into SpaceX too to build my overall exposure I also gave Milk Road PRO members a signal to buy $SPCX at $115 even though everyone in the market said it was overvalued and will drop below $100 I think SpaceX will be above $200 by Q4 earnings. PS you can see my entire portfolio here: link.milkroad.com/Kyle

Tesla's Cybercab just got a regulatory tailwind NHTSA proposed changes to the federal vehicle lighting standard for driverless cars Vehicles with no manual controls would no longer need physical hazard switches, beam shifters or turn signal levers It also sets a standard for optional cyan exterior lights that show when the self-driving system is in control The proposal publishes in the Federal Register on Oct 26, as part of DOT's push to make cars without steering wheels or pedals easier to build and sell Cybercab of course has no steering wheel, no pedals and no mirrors NHTSA did open an audit query last month into how Cybercab was certified, but the rules are now being rewritten around EXACTLY the kind of vehicle Tesla is building Bullish $TSLA

I can't stop thinking about what it means if SpaceX actually hits 13+ GW of compute by EOY'27 Elon says they're adding 200K Nvidia GPUs/MONTH and accelerating next year That's ~40% of ALL new Nvidia GPU supply for the next 5 quarters What does this do to the market? 1. The obvious is that the price of old GPUs remains elevated and continues to go higher, as the supply of available compute to buy gets squeezed even further. Which by the way, the number of entities now looking to buy GPUs is expanding with the proliferation of open source models This should be bullish for some Neoclouds, but also potentially bearish as some of these neoclouds who thought they were going to build out x amount of GWs next year will no longer have the chips to do it 2. NVIDIA margins hold strong into 2028 and everyone locked out of Nvidia allocation gets pushed to Plan B: AMD, Google TPUs, Amazon's Trainium. The issue is all of these are also already sold out... so I guess their margins increase too? 3. Yes, of course this remains bullish for memory as it means many enterprises will being locking in GPU and chip deals into 2028, since many won't be able to get an allocation in 2027 4. READY POWER becomes the thing that wins allocation from chip providers. Nvidia is literally shipping containerized racks that go live in 14 days. If chips are rationed, they flow to whoever can energize the fastest. So powered, pre-leased datacenters become even more valuable 5. One of the things that concerns me however is we have plenty of Data Center shells being built right now. But a company is only going to rent it if they can get GPUs to put inside it. If Elon ends up standing up his own data centres and power and takes 40% of the GPUs, we may end up with a scenario where theres a bunch of shells built, with no ability to supply them with GPUs So we don't have an oversupply of compute, that still remains scarce, but we may end up with an oversupply of data centers. See the chart from Semianlaysis, who is forecasting something similar to play out Also because Elon builds everything in house, this could be an issue for companies that supply data centers with things like on-site power for example (ie. Bloom Energy). It's weird because quick power is even more important (bullish for $BE), but if Elon beats them and gets the chips, then there's less companies who want to pay for BEs product since they have no chips to be powered anyway (bearish $BE) Ultimately, this is bullish for compute assuming there are enough buyers out there for this many GWs at premium rates, but it definitely makes things outside of the chips a bit dicey I think you want to own $SPCX here and also $NVDA and $MU are easy holds through this scenario with minimal risk. Still thinking through what this means for other assets like $BE, competing neoclouds and more What else am I missing? PS you can check out my entire real-time portfolio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z Good luck out there!

There's a lot of speculation around an incoming SpaceX and Tesla merger Here's 8 ways both companies BENEFIT IF it happens: 1. Investment-grade debt instead of private credit $TSLA has $43.5B of cash and did $4.7B of operating cash flow last quarter. $SPCX is seeking $40B of debt just for NVIDIA chips and Morgan Stanley estimates it needs ~$84B of outside capital per YEAR through 2034 A combined company funds this with cash flow and investment-grade debt instead of private credit. Saving even 2-3 points of interest on $40B is $1B+ a year, and that compounds across the entire buildout 2. Starlink replaces cellular in every Tesla Today, carriers collect an estimated $10/month per connected car, a large % of the total Tesla charges. Moving this in-house to Starlink not only means 100% of revenues moves in-house, but also a better product with (eventually) no dead zones 3. Starlink for Robotaxi and Humanoid Robots Cybercabs are already getting built with Starlink inside them, a merger would mean this can come with no additional cost/sale required between the companies 4. Compute at cost and better optionality Tesla has its own training compute today, which doubled in the first half of 2026, but FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus are only just getting started and they will need a LOT more compute SpaceX is already building this out at size with 10GW expected by EOY 2027. Rather than leasing this to Tesla at market prices ($30M/MW ish right now), Tesla's extra demand can simply run on SpaceX compute at cost SpaceX also now has more optionally with their compute. To move between leasing, using for Grok or now using for Tesla products 4. Energy at cost Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage last quarter and xAI/SpaceX is one of Tesla's biggest customers ($430M of mostly Megapack revenue in 2025). Merged, the data centers get Megapacks at cost with guaranteed supply, and yes, that intercompany revenue disappears in consolidation, but it's a wash since it's saved as an expense on the other side 5. Terafab gets built FASTER Terafab today is a joint venture between two separately owned companies, so every major decision crosses two boards, two capital committees, and negotiated cost-sharing agreements. Merged, one owner makes the call and capital moves the same day. Construction starts in December, and that speed advantage compounds through every phase after the first $16.8B. Elon's whole edge is iteration speed, and a JV structure is the opposite of that 6. Killing the duplicate overhead Two public companies means two of everything: two legal departments, two HR orgs, two finance and audit functions, two IR teams, two procurement groups buying from the same suppliers. Combined SG&A is about $11.2B. Cutting 15-25% of the ~$3.4B corporate slice of that is about $0.5-0.9B a year (est). Not the headline reason to merge, but still useful 7. A potential tax arbitrage SpaceX's AI buildout generated $3.7B of losses in the first half alone Merged, those losses offset Tesla's taxable profit at the 21% corporate rate, worth roughly $0.3-1.0B a year Though looks like SpaceX is soon going to generate a profit, so this may be irrelevant after next earnings 8. Combined Data for Training Tesla's fleet generates real-world data, X and Grok have additional data and SpaceX has its own data. Currently Tesla and SpaceX data are separate and have corporate boundaries and conflict disclosure issues Once merged, this can all be combined for more data, all in one place, trained across the same GPU clusters And of course big picture, there is plenty of overlap across all of SpaceX and Tesla products, so having it under one roof means they can build for a more seamless future (see my post below for more details on this) What else am I missing? Also, I remain bullish on both of these companies and both have a spot in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can see my entire portoflio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z

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