Father of 3, husband, & energy investor. Proponent of the Canadian energy patch & occasional market commentator. https://xitter.cf/t.co/WVA6oG8CCO

Toronto, Ontario
Joined June 2009
Highlights from my testimony to the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Natural Resources - opening statement
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Despite Middle Eastern crude oil exports near/back to pre-war levels for over a month (?), onshore inventories have so far failed to rise, and the cost to accomplish this is a staggering ~$35/bbl. What happens if things escalate?
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China is back buying oil (October imports now "only" down 1.8MM Bbl/d YOY) while Middle Eastern production remains down ~4MM Bbl/d vs. pre-war levels. 234 days into the "2 week incursion" and we've forfeited over 2BN barrels of production. Restocking to take years...
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Eric Nuttall retweeted
From 18 cents to $12 per share. Ninepoint's 2021 investment in Athabasca Oil has turned into a massive gain following Cenovus Energy's proposed acquisition of the company. Led by @ericnuttall and the Ninepoint Energy Fund team, the investment reflects a high-conviction view on Athabasca's assets and long-term potential. bit.ly/4ezgATm Disclaimer: bit.ly/3TLnspP
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Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly-ish Update: why "we remain bullish"™️ on energy stocks despite a spectacular year so far
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Eric Nuttall retweeted
Varcoe: High oil prices leave Canadian oilsands producers with epic cash flow levels, some 'approaching debt-free status' calgaryherald.com/opinion/co… #ableg #yyc #yeg #oilsands
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We have in our energy strategies for the past ~2 months been defensively positioned. YTD returns have been solid and we feared bad energy policy from the WH (diesel export ban, etc.) ahead of the US mid-terms. With only 20 days to go to the election, we think that risk has been largely eliminated. The 2027 WTI strip is $84 offering eye-watering free cashflow yields for some, the situation in the Middle East continues to worsen with no end in sight, and for the first time in a decade we have a Canadian Government that is supportive of the energy sector. Despite some stocks appreciating by 70%+ YTD and making all-time highs, they are in some cases cheaper today than they were on January 1st. Given this, we have been deploying some of our cash, and continue to believe that we remain in a multi-year bull market for energy stocks.
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"كلمة خوف في القاموس السعودي.. لا وجود لها"؛ سمو وزير الطاقة وزير الصناعة والثروة المعدنية خلال الكلمة الافتتاحية في مؤتمر البترول العالمي.
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The question I ask myself every morning now...what oil price to underwrite for 2027? We've been using $70WTI, not a forecast but instead a defendable floor. If status quo persists, $80+WTI is on the table and with it a ~50% increase in average FCF yields:
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We all know by now that these estimates move around, but with 2 ships/day over the past week getting hit by the IRGC, there seems to have been a believable, notable drop in Hormuz oil exports. $80+ 2027 WTI strip becoming more real by the day:
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Eric Nuttall retweeted
Joined the Global Risk Institute's 2026 Summit to talk about how the world has changed. For much of my career, I thought about risk from the perspective of a banker. Today, I think about it from the perspective of a country. The perspective of a Canadian who knows this is the best country in the world, and it can still get better. The scale is different, but the principles are not: build optionality, avoid concentration, invest in productive assets, and never assume that the conditions that prevailed yesterday will prevail tomorrow. Canada cannot control the rupture happening around us. But we can control our response, and we can build an economy that is not simply capable of surviving the next shock, but positioned to seize the opportunities that come with it. That is the opportunity in front of us. I am confident we can, and will, seize it. 🇨🇦
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It's definitely a full-size chocolate bar Halloween this year.
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"There aren't many more inventories to drain in the West. We drained the available inventory." -Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol
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The 2027 WTI strip is trading at a new high at over $80/bbl and we see many highly attractive opportunities at that price level. If you missed out on 2026, don’t despair…2027 is right around the corner. “We remain bullish”™️ on the Canadian energy sector.
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Kpler tracking notable drop in Middle Eastern exports. Even if back to pre-war levels, why is it not sustainable long-term? The cost...at $25-$30/bbl. How do the "glutters" explain a potential fall to $60/bbl when transportation expense is so high to accomplish???
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From $0.18 to $12.00 in 5 years...what a ride. Congratulations to Rob, Matt, and Team...underestimated for years, they pivoted from "survive" to "thrive" making our clients a lot of money along the way.
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So we get a large European SPR release with Middle Eastern exports purportedly back to 84% of normal, and oil only falls by ~$2/bbl with Brent still above $100. I can hear the panic in the Whitehouse all the way from Toronto. The status quo is not sustainable!
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Impressive recovery in total exports with 7 day avg. of 14.3MM Bbl/d, still down ~4MM Bbl/d while costing ~$25-30/bbl to achieve. Is it sustainable? Oilx still = Middle Eastern production down 6.6MM Bbl/d. We are not in the clear yet and status quo not sustainable.
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