got bit. staying fluid, sexually & financially.
Joined October 2024
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thinking about this
If you own Bitcoin or any asset you have to consider worse case and be ok with that upfront
People who own Bitcoin should believe Bitcoin would survive Satoshi wallets being hacked
Wallet hacks and breaking a protocol are two separate matters
I ultimately believe the principles behind Bitcoin survive and that it would be a volatility event of which on the other side would cause realisation that there is no other risk left
An the beauty of satoshis wallets is it’s not one but spread out with no owner - by divine design that he sacrifice his wallets to the community
Short term volatility that brings the community together solves it in whatever way and then reprices
People complain about bitcoiners being stubborn - it’s a deep belief in values - those values will be tested but I believe hold. If you talk to a bitcoiner then you know they are more likely to buy after a hack then to sell
There is no other fud left - the principles have been tested in every angle and survived and proved to be irreplaceable
An this is in the case this even happens which in many other paths does not
Chamath never believed in the principles - he just saw it as a venture bet hence selling early and cannot understand why someone might decide to buy instead of sell in such a situation
His statement of it going to 0 is like when someone says property is going to 0 it’s an emotional statement that doesn’t hold
really considering swearing off onchain and memes for the rest of the cycle.
would I hit a couple of massive wins that meaningfully move the needle for my port? maybe.
would trading them take over my life and fuck my brain? certainly.
in reality, the addict in me probably won’t let me swear them off for good. but damn, the r:r really just doesn’t seem there right now on top of the mental bandwidth tax.
excited to lose all my money and feel good about it.
papertrade pre-deposits are live!
papertrade.xyz
in order to avoid the launch trading congestion, deposit during the next two days to secure your spot at the starting line. once trading begins, account creation/deposits will be heavily deprioritized.
no need to rush - there is no advantage to depositing earlier during this period.
when on 10.10 will papertrade go live?
live trading will begin approximately one hour after the expected hyperevm network upgrade on 10.10. the exact upgrade time is not known beforehand. the official hyperliquid discord will post an update when the upgrade is about to begin, so keep an eye there for an early heads up. there is a small historical possibility that the upgrade will happen on the AM of the 11th.
update:
today of all days my boo decided to remind me that I promised to take her to Japan, business class.
when you're scrolling the timeline searching for signs that everything is going to be okay it's not a great spot to be in. ai cracking cryptography does scare me ngl but I'm too dumb to know how to approach it rn & historically when i've felt this scared it's been a bad time to puke. for now, i cut my memes + am holding the rest.
for the first time in a while today i had the thought: what if this crypto shit doesn't work out for me?
unrelated observation: everyone has the same levels marked on their charts and are saying "this cycle i'm going to keep it". They say they plan on achieving this is by being a trader and not a holder.
i wonder if this'll = more volatility + more fake outs this cycle.
spooky season
solana:HcRLc9VDgjLeK154xDawfb1dmVJ98DoSqcwTHGqiDeJR Post-Mortem: Where I F'ked It.
Chapter 1: The sub-$1M fumble
Brain: good cute meme + paired with hottest alt of the cycle, much better than $ REDACTED (the top zec paired meme at the time ) = slam buy.
From there, I was lazy about calculating holder rewards. If I'd run the numbers, I would have seen my cost basis would have been easily covered in a week or two. It was literally a free trade, and I fumbled 1% of supply buying at sub $1M.
My original thesis on why it might do well got clouded because it wasn't "pure" on zcash and still lived on Solana. That cross-chain pollination kept me from seeing the potential, and I ignored that some of the most vocal Solana bulls (Mert, Ansem, etc.) are also big on ZEC.
Chapter 2: The re-entry
I re-entered around $20M mc and bought STONK shortly after.
Despite getting a decent entry, my previous fomo/pump fumble card shooting up to over $1-1.5 million really fucked with my head.
When both ripped, I rolled all my STONK profits into ZCAT at the pico top. From having witnessed cashcat, boner, etc. I knew that zcat would likely go through a violent correction and I even pre-marked buy zones (both have now been hit). I ignored them and slammed the top because I was desperate to get 1M tokens. It was an emotional move driven by the 1% fumble, and I paid far more than I should have, which made my cost basis much higher than it ever should have been.
Chapter 3: Selling the pico bottom
Because of that positioning & the mental pressure caused by it, I capitulated at the literal pico bottom around $34M. Lack of patience fucked me gain & the coin has 2x'd since my exit.
From here, I'm not eager to re-enter at resistance. Wait and see, and most likely let it go.
Potentially my most painful & mentally torturing trade so far.
Lessons for next time: Exercise more patience & size positions better so I can stomach the volatility.
For those holding, I hope the bag stays on. Overall I'm still not convinced that memes can reach similar heights as previous cycle, but for the trenches i'd love to see one go the distance and raise the ceiling for all.
looks pretty clear to me that liquidity is sloshing back and forth between rh and stonk ecos.
still early bull, but rn doesn't look like there's enough juice to send both hard simultaneously.
tbh i don't know what wins out so i'm staying hedged with exposure to both ecos for now.
staying fluid
already flipping and thinking my thought process was flawed on this.
while i still believe rh chain will continue to dominate volume overall, i think the top memes of each main chain will perform well.
the @theunipcs approach of owning the top 1-2 memes on each was smart. I think i underestimated how much capital sits on particular chains that doesn't want to move. there still exists a high degree of loyalty/laziness that will send the top coins on their respective chains.
i think people calling for a rotation from rh to binance coins are wildly underestimating how sticky the idea and reputation is of “a chain that rewards holders”
the only people calling for this, over-indexed on bsc coins and have largely missed the rh trade up to this point.
sure, if binance lists some coins they’ll rocket. but i believe that motion will be short lived. understandably, they couldn’t rationalize selling their massive early positions in things like niu lai and marscoin before the listings. my guess is all the big holders are simply waiting to sell that pump so they can finally join the action on rh.
just my 2 cents, but maybe i’m just pretty and dumb.
before this, crypto bros saying "GME 2.0" about their meme coins was always a force.
the gme story was special because it was retail vs. suits. not retail pvp-ing one another.
now GME 2.0 is actually possible.
the dog has been incredibly fast, but i think the cat might reach 1b first.
when you compare the top holders of each on fomo you'll notice on cashcat they aren't even up that much in % terms. what that signals to me is that the early buyers are largely out, and the current top holders are buying with size at these levels.
this data is a bit skewed as some of the top holders are peeps that imported to fomo, but there's still better distribution on cashcat. whereas, ai ripped so hard and so fast the top holders are up massively which adds sell pressure that may take more time to work through.
holding both tho, so i just get to enjoy the race.
when you zoom out and contextualize what's happening on robinhood chain right now while:
- btc only at 77k
- btc technically still in a macro downtrend (4 year cycle believers waiting on Q4)
- major alts just barely starting to show signs of life
its hard to not imagine things getting a lot more silly.
even if the 4 year cyclers are right, majors breakdown and we see a massive flush from the unrealized pnl's on rh...dips are for buying imo. i think robinhood chain is going to be a lot stickier than is consensus rn.
but maybe i'm just pretty and dumb.