Sports betting & prediction market policy wonk

USA
Joined February 2024
Breaking: the big tax bill with a provision to repeal the 90% cap on gambling losses was just overwhelmingly voted through, with bipartisan support, to the House Rules Committee. It’s a technical step before it goes to the House floor for a full vote.
The 90% cap on gambling losses would be repealed retroactive to 1/1/26 as part of the Ways & Means tax bill. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates a negative impact on revenue of $2 billion from ‘27-36 from this repeal. The ‘27-34 estimate is $1.5 billion, up 33% from its $1.1 billion estimate during same period. Wonder if this means estimated tax payments from gamblers were higher than anticipated?
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Fairplaygov retweeted
Some mixed news here in the effort to repeal the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions: It’s good to hear that @SteveDaines and Senate tax writing committees are looking at passing a digital assets tax bill before the end of the 119th Congress. However, this Senate bill doesn’t appear to include @RepHorsford ‘s common sense FULL HOUSE Act to ensure no tax on phantom gambling income, so let’s make sure the final version that committees agree upon includes the popular and common sense FULL HOUSE Act!
Telling sign-off from Smith! Daines told me today that convos with tax-writing committees have been “constructive,” but said there’s still a long road ahead and not much time.
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Fairplaygov retweeted
How much money can the biggest PM market-makers generate? Flutter says its is now ~15% of Kalshi combo volume and will earn around $150mm in profits in 2027 But $FLUT would still rather see prediction markets go away entirely because of the impact on the core business (and share price) via Earnings+More/JP Morgan substack.com/app-link/post?p…
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This problem gambling council situation is fascinating. NCPG has had revenue of <$2 million annually most of the last decade. Majority of its membership dues comes from iGaming, casino & sports betting companies. $8-15k dues are a drop in the bucket for many of these companies like MGM, Sands, Caesars… Kalshi then comes in & contributes $2 million to NCPG over 2 years which equals roughly 3 years of membership dues from its combined 100+ members. A couple of state gaming boards like MI & OH are now ending their membership with open letters though Massachusetts Gaming Commission voted unanimously to stay on board for now. $2 million is a big boost in NCPG’s lobbying efforts along with the NFL’s commitment of several million dollars. But if that money goes toward advocating / lobbying for more restrictions on iGaming or regulations for state-based sports betting licensees, that could negatively impact state tax revenue. And so we circle back to this whole issue of perverse incentives that states have created for themselves with these lucrative gaming & sports betting tax revenue streams and how RG efforts *feel like* optics more than anything. And whoever is at the NCPG is caught in the middle of these financial interests.
News today: The executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling resigns in the wake of blowback in recent months for its stance on prediction markets and Kalshi’s membership. closingline.substack.com/p/n…
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As @RichardSchuetz3 pointed out, DraftKings is a platinum member & you won’t hear a peep from any state gaming boards withdrawing their memberships over this.
NEW: I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company’s “responsible gaming” safeguards. Spoiler Alert: They invited me into the VIP program after just one week. Here’s how I yeeted $20K+ ripping riskier and risker bets 🧵
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JUST IN: The Sixth Circuit ruled against Kalshi and in favor of Ohio and Tennessee, who want to regulate prediction platforms like gambling. This now means 2 federal appeals courts have ruled for the states, while 1 ruled in favor of prediction companies. SCOTUS looms.
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Fairplaygov retweeted
About a year ago I had a call with a journalist at a major publication, who had obtained a public figure’s betting records. The man had wagered ten times his (publicly available) salary in the past year, and the journalist was planning an expose. They called me to learn about money laundering, how one could use stolen funds to gamble, and what tools gambling companies had to ensure people didn’t lose more than they could afford. About three minutes in, I asked them how much the man had deposited and lost. The journalist was confused; “I just told you, he’s gambled more than $4 million.” “Yes,” I responded, “but how much did he LOSE? If I bet $100 on red twice and win once, I will have gambled $200 but netted $0. Amount gambled is a worthless statistic on its own.” We went back and forth for a few minutes, and the call was ended after I told them I couldn’t comment until I had more details. I never heard from the journalist again, and the story never ran. I’m not sure exactly what happened, although after asking around about the guy my best guess is that he was churning through some sort of online promotion, meaning the “$4 million wagered” had almost no correlation to the amount he won or lost gambling. Of course, the vast majority of people who gamble, in any form, will lose. At roulette and blackjack they’ll probably lose between 2-5% of what they wager, usually the same for sports betting or prediction markets unless they’re betting parlays in which case it’s likely between 10-20%. More people gambling necessarily means more people losing, and gambling losses all too frequently substitute for saving, investment, and other important expenses, meaning the spread of gambling is associated with widespread financial harm. But please, journalists, if you are going to cover gambling well you need to understand and articulate the difference between gambling LOSSES and gambling HANDLE. The guy in the video below is obviously gambling in a way likely to endanger his finances; one should never put their whole paycheck on the line. But *even if he does* gamble his entire salary in a year, that’s very different than spending his entire salary on drugs or alcohol, because he’s likely to get at least 80-90% back of what he puts in.
A 29-year-old pest control salesman says he bets on sports every day, wagering between $80,000 and $120,000 a year — as much as or more than his $97,000 salary. He tells @JimAxelrod he sometimes puts an entire paycheck on his bets. cbsnews.com/news/sports-bett…
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Fairplaygov retweeted
Today, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first sovereign Tribal nation in the country to launch its own prediction market. Read the open letter below:
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.@RepBlakeMoore shared his opposition to gambling & prediction markets prior to voting against the bill that would eliminate the phantom tax, the only one to do so. I have started oppo research on Moore.
The 5 no votes should be forced to explain their logic here and why they think it’s fair and appropriate for people to pay tax when they didn’t make any income Tell me: Guy bets $1000 loses Bets another $1000 wins He is even, but you want him to pay tax? Explain yourself.
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Fairplaygov retweeted
An update from @TomRooney regarding the progress made today on the bill to fix the gambling loss tax deduction. A good start!
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The provision would restore 100% deductibility of gambling losses (up to & not to exceed gambling winnings) for Americans. It would be retroactive to the start of this year.
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This is one of several key steps for this reversal to become law. Overwhelming bipartisan support signals that it will likely hit the House floor for a vote. Still, nothing is certain in this Congress.
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The 90% cap on gambling losses would be repealed retroactive to 1/1/26 as part of the Ways & Means tax bill. Joint Committee on Taxation estimates a negative impact on revenue of $2 billion from ‘27-36 from this repeal. The ‘27-34 estimate is $1.5 billion, up 33% from its $1.1 billion estimate during same period. Wonder if this means estimated tax payments from gamblers were higher than anticipated?
Impactful opening statement from @RepHorsford
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Impactful opening statement from @RepHorsford
My FULL HOUSE Act is getting marked up in the Ways and Means Committee this Wednesday. Nevadans should not be taxed on income they never actually received. But a mistake added by Senate Republicans last year means you can be taxed even when gaming. My bill is the only real solution to fix this, and I’m glad we’re moving forward. Nevadans need this fixed, and I’ll get it done.
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Fairplaygov retweeted
❗️We're in! @RepHorsford @RepMaxMiller 's FULL HOUSE ACT reverses the unfair tax on phantom gambling income and is now incorporated on page 113 of 114 in HR 10357, which Rep. Horsford thinks will get bipartisan sign-off. Still a ways to go, but progress! Still applicable back to the start of the year if it passes. All eyes now on Wednesday's markup
Rep. Horsford told me tonight that he supports the latest crypto tax legislation, and thinks it’ll get bipartisan sign-off. He was the Dem to convince, but had issues with previous language about the treatment of staking and mining income.
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My FULL HOUSE Act is being marked up in the Ways and Means Committee this Wednesday, which means relief for Nevadans is one step closer. This unfair provision added by the Senate means you can be taxed on money you never actually received when gambling. It was wrong from the start, and now we’re fixing it.
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Fairplaygov retweeted
🚨BREAKING: New life in the effort to fix the unfair phantom tax on gambling income Yes, we’ve seen efforts to fix this fail before, but this is a great sign. Many of us would appreciate a fix before the November midterms Will definitely keep a close eye on this
News: W&M R’s are planning to include a reversal of OBBB’s tax hike on gamblers in their crypto tax package, which they’re expected to mark up next Wednesday It would resemble Max Miller/Horsford bill to revive the bigger deduction for losses. Package would also include many of the bills from W&M’s legislative hearing on crypto tax @PunchbowlNews Vault subscribers got the news first
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Fairplaygov retweeted
As you may have seen this morning in The PM Pulse 042, I included a new section, Trader Notes – high-signal analysis from leading traders in the industry. 3 takeaways stood out to me from PM trader and data analyst @probaaron on last night’s NFL opener: 1) About 10 minutes after Sam Darnold left the game, takers bought 1.2M New England contracts in a single minute. 2) After the final whistle, Seattle holders sold 572k contracts at 99¢ rather than wait for the $1 settlement – whoever was resting at 99¢ earned the last cent on every fill. 3) Of 58.8M contracts traded across both markets, 11.0M printed before kickoff and 47.8M during the game. I’m looking forward to future collaborations with Aaron and his new Substack, Resolution Pending. If you’re a trader doing similar deep market analysis and want to highlight your top takeaways in The PM Pulse, please reach out. Alongside The PM Spotlight and The PM Scoreboard, Trader Notes aligns with the mission of The PM Pulse: build the layer of market intelligence for prediction markets.
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Any platform using Kalshi for college football markets would have been impacted by the MICH-WMU misgrades. This includes both Coinbase & Robinhood.
Looks like Coinbase prediction market also screwed up the Michigan game. I've seen screenshots where they apologized to users for "an issue with the settlement," said they're "manually recalculating the balances for all affected accounts" and asked for 2 days to figure it out.
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