Accidental Economist. Prof at @warwickecon and @unibonn. Visiting Prof @GRI_LSE. Fellow @STICERD_LSE. ERC STG. CEPR @cepr_org & Associate Editor @EJ_RES.

Joined August 2009
Security vulnerabilities are an essential part of the security infrastructure. As these go, suitable โ€œreplacementsโ€ need to be found. Good old "trust", anyone? Trust, but (delayed) verification?
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Every now and then it is useful to look back. In this article for The Globalist I provided a succinct overview of the incentive mix around Iran, now with added contextual data. In a high dimensional world, low dimensional narratives are dangerous -- yet they are pervasive...
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Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence: they waited for the WTO moratorium on electronic transmissions to collapse before establishing a comparative advantage in intergalactic data exports.
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Very useful points
๐ŸšจUnderstanding Migration Responses to Local Shocks New version of paper with @borusyak and Brian Kovak! 1/6 Many papers find that local labor demand shocks have sizable effects on wages and employment, but surprisingly small or imprecise effects on local population.
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Worrisome
Back in November 2024 โ€” and even until earlier this year โ€” my analysis was that, while Trump was willing to sell out Ukraine, the payoff from normalizing relations with Russia was insufficient to cover the costs of capitulation. Iโ€™m afraid the politics have shifted. /1
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Thiemo Fetzer ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - same handle elsewhere retweeted
๐ŸšจNew Paper Alert๐Ÿšจ: Export controls aim to limit adversaries' access to military-relevant inputs. But firms, supply chains, and incomes adjust. The countries imposing controls pay a price too. Using new data, we quantify when and how they can be effective and thus whether the trade-offs are worth it. ๐Ÿงต 1/
New @nberpubs: "Export Controls and the Economics of National Security" nber.org/papers/w35898#fromrโ€ฆ viia @KyleLHandley
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Thiemo Fetzer ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - same handle elsewhere retweeted
by corporatist players (see below). Here is how I'd nest both intuitions. Start from clear pro-climate electoral activation, i.e. voters who visibly reward climate action and punish inaction. Governments then have electoral incentives to buy the consent of carbon-intensive
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Thiemo Fetzer ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - same handle elsewhere retweeted
Good economics should reach beyond people who have time to read the full paper. @lehanzhang_ built a beautiful interactive guide to our study of how poliricians polarize the public debates following mass shootings. Follow the evidence as you scroll: lehanzhang.com/research/addiโ€ฆ
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Thiemo Fetzer ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - same handle elsewhere retweeted
Today's cool young researcher #econtwitter #econsky is @caterina_vieira @LSEEcon who works on topics related to development + urban economics
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Yes we can.
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Itโ€™s official! European telecom giants, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefรณnica and Vodafone, join forces to explore a joint bid for European satellite spectrum and develop a sovereign European satellite connectivity infrastructure Full support. We have to be free from US whims
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It should be obvious that the agentic economy may eliminate many of the inattention economy rents, this will redefine the financial system as we know it.
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โคต๏ธ
I think its worthy to do a short "explainer" of why or how coding assistants have become so (non-linearly) good at what they do. At a very high level, you can think of this as reinforcement learning "in action". Model complexity or size has not really evolved much in recent...
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A statistic that I keep reiterating is the following: BYD in China has a 50% cost advantage making EVs relative to Tesla in China.
Why are Euro auto brands losing to China? Well... let's look at costs, productivity, employee output, etc. Hard to compete with this. "Using VWโ€™s auto plants as a proxy, labor costs, labor productivity, sick leave rates, unit costs and electricity costs in its China plants are a fraction of what they are in Europe, so no one should be surprised at the market share shifts on the right. Even the imposition of 17%-35% tariffs has done little to slow European imports of Chinese EVs."
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Thiemo Fetzer ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - same handle elsewhere retweeted
Response to a request for information under Freedom of Information Act, Britain, 2023.
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