The time has finally arrived to simplify how we use the volume indicator on our charts. With a Tradingview script at the end, here is a thread🧵 on what “simple” volumes are, & how to use them: 👇

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Market Quadrant 43/2026 A no-money* environment. Here, even intraday trading opportunities have become scarce. Most of the structures have broken down. Traders are looking for a technical bounce, but that won’t turn a strong bear like this into a raging bull. The simplest way to judge if we're in a bear or a bull market is via the % of stocks above 200-day MA. % of stocks above 200 MA sustaining for at least a month above 50 → Bull Market % of stocks above 200 MA sustaining for at least a month below 50 → Bear Market (see quoted post for details) We have been in a bear market since Feb 2025, & the Nifty Smallcap 100 has had three bear phases since 2018: Phase 1 (Apr 2018 – Sep 2020, 29 months) Phase 2 (Mar 2022 – Jun 2023, 15 months) Phase 3 (Feb 2025 – still open, 21 months and counting) The index is currently 12% below the September high. The 200-day MA breadth is at 25%. From a long-term perspective, are we oversold? No. Every bear bottom since 2018 came with breadth at 15% or lower. The two earlier legs of this phase bottomed at 10–12%. I’m watching for breadth to drop below 15% while the index holds above its March low of about 15,000. This week’s quadrant is all-red: ⦿ Bias: Bear ⦿ Trend: Downtrend ⦿ Swing: Downswing ⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening Read in detail on Substack if you want more gloominess. *I’m always wary of labeling an environment as a “no-money” one, because some dedh-shaana traders might pop up in the comments saying that they have been trading successfully in this environment. 😝

If the government genuinely wants to curb liquidity in Indian equity markets, here are some policy recommendations: 1. Raise LTCG tax retrospectively to 20.47% so that FII are not able to exit longterm holdings. Apt lesson for the goras. 2. Re-KYC everytime a broker login is done. Plus an NOC from five ministries, renewed monthly, mandatory for selling. 3. Exit Transaction Tax (ETT) on every sell order. Plus 56% Liquidity Cess on that ETT. Selling of stocks leads to capital outflows & must be discouraged. 4. All price bands should be capped to 5% maximum. After all why does a stock need to move 10, 20% in a day. 5. Launch a National Liquidity Eradication Mission (NLEM) under a Bharatiya Nirdhan Trader committee with a ₹78,000 crore budget to investigate why liquidity is so abundant. Na rahegi liquidity, na hogi underperformance. 💪

This is the chart of the Indonesia index that fell 11.5% yesterday, which was its biggest single-day drop since 1998. Why? Because MSCI warned it may drop Indonesia from emerging market indexes. Lucky that we are in India & not in Indonesia.

This might be my last AI music video. Over the past year, I’ve enjoyed creating music with AI, but honestly, there’s little audience for it, & I don't want to make more AI slop. 🙈 It was a fun experiment while it lasted. The song is aptly “Eh Mera Geet, Kisse Na Gaana”.

Market Quadrant 42/2026 The hard-money environment continues. Certain pockets have still been working well. These include IPOs, earnings-related moves (also loosely called EP), and sectors in play like jewelry & sugar. Very few buy-and-trail moves, but lots of tradable intraday and 2-3 day momentum moves. Sitting out is a valid option, but only for those whose trading system or personal circumstances don’t allow for adaptation. Those who can should adapt, evolve & improve. ⦿ Bias → Bear From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market, as more than 50% of stocks stay below their 200-day SMA. ⦿ Trend → Sideways 52-week Net New Highs have not been consistent for the past 3 days. Most stocks have consistently remained below their 50-day MAs. ⦿ Swing → Sideways The MBI stays red. About half of all stocks are trading above their 10-day MA. 10-day breadth exceeds 20-day breadth. ⦿ Momentum → Negative but improving IT, Media & PvtBank are the only indices with positive & improving momentum. Top sectors with improving momentum include sugar, jewelry, paper, capital markets & defense. That's all for this week.

c'mon bulls

The greatest superpower is the ability to enjoy life as it is. खुश रहना एक nature है. Some people don’t need a reason to be happy, to laugh, or to enjoy life. वो बस खुश रहते हैं।They’re naturally happy, and in my opinion, no superpower is greater than that. आपको कुछ नहीं चाहिए. No amount of money, fame, or worldly possessions can give lasting happiness. इन सब चीज़ों की एक बहुत छोटी half-life होती है, और ये कोई long-lasting change आपके अंदर नहीं लाती हैं. For those who spend their lives feeling miserable and searching for happiness in all the wrong places, learning the art of simply being happy could be a revelation. Luckiest are those who are fortunate enough to be naturally happy, without any effort. They’re born happy and die happy.

Market Quadrant 41/2026 Another week of a hard-money environment with stock-specific action. We are still away from oversold levels, and panic is still missing. ⦿ Bias → Bear From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market, as more than 50% of stocks stay below their 200-day SMA. ⦿ Trend → Downtrend 52-week Net New Highs have been negative or flat for the past 3 days. Most stocks have consistently remained below their 50-day MAs. ⦿ Swing → Downswing The MBI stays red, and most stocks are trading below their 10-day moving averages. ⦿ Momentum → Negative & worsening Sectors with improving momentum include data center, cables, sugar, banks, jewelry, capital markets, IT & FMCG. That's all for this week.

Portfolio became 40% lighter today 😀 ARCIL - exited today for a 0% return on the portfolio MVELECTRO - exited today for a 0% return on the portfolio Both were 20% position size each, with about 0.5% initial risk on the portfolio each. The setups were perfect, as both were young, liquid IPOs with volatility contraction. ⦿ ARCIL started strong on the back of the earnings release. The trade became risk-free within the first day, and it closed at its 10% upper circuit. The stop loss was then moved to break-even. ⦿ MVELECTRO was slower & had weaker follow-through, but still managed to reach 3R profit. I placed the stop loss at break-even again. Today, both went down along with the market pressure, hitting my break-even stop loss. A couple of years back, I would have regretted these 2 points: - Should’ve booked partial profits on the first day - Shouldn’t have brought SL to breakeven But then I would book partials on the first day on all trades, including my bigger winners like AUGMONT & LALITHAA, and get an overall lower return on my capital. And not bringing my SL to breakeven would mean turning many breakeven trades into -1R losses. So I guess I did ok.

I was listening to this Space recording where @MaiHoonSaurabh asks how a trader makes trading rules but then consciously doesn't follow them every now and then. The result is a poor trading outcome. How does one remedy this? The simple equation here is A + B = C. A and B are the two variables that, when combined, give you an outcome of C. You are A. Your rule is B. You want to change C. There are only two solutions: 1. You change A, 2. You change B, or you change both of them. So, for example, you say you will take 2 positions, and then, once they are risk-free, you'll take a third position. On a breadth-expansion day, you cannot hold yourself back, and you take multiple positions. Maybe your risk appetite is bigger than this mechanical "I'll take two trades only and then wait for them to get risk-free and then take the third trade." So the best option is to just tweak the rule. Maybe, instead of the number of positions, a total open-risk % would be a better rule for that trader. The second, tougher way is to review the history of the setups and situations you want to be in, create a plan accordingly, and then commit to following it. As @stocksgeeks correctly said, "Make your rules so comprehensive that you have to 'take fewer decisions'. Reducing the frequency of decision-making will help you stick to the plan." These are the only two ways to do it. For me, the easiest way is to change the rule. Changing your personality is very difficult, and the rule you created may simply not be compatible with it. Create your rules around yourself, and not the other way round. खुद को बदलने से अच्छा है, इस ज़माने को बदल डालो।

AUGMONT - exited today for a 5.8% return on the portfolio It was a 25% position with about 0.5% risk on the portfolio. Exited partial quantities midway and the remaining quantity today. A few days back, it gapped down post-earnings but immediately recovered and tightened over the next few days, making the setup ripe for entry. The first entry was via GTT. It opened with a gap up that day, and I just got the entry. Today’s price band change to 5% made the sell decision easier.

Falling markets are the best times to ascertain relative strength. Rather than using any indicator, do this based on context. e.g. in the current scenario, the index is making a lower low. So the stocks can be grouped into any of these 4 categories: 1. Did not fall or already recovering. These are in their own cycle & not at all concerned with the market cycle. Many IPO stocks fit in here. 2. Making higher lows. These are relatively strong ones to watch in the coming days. 3. Making almost equal lows, so still falling less than the index, but weaker than 1 or 2. Keep an eye on them, but not a priority. 4. Making lower lows like the indices or even worse. Ignore these till they show signs of strength. Remember, all this analysis becomes null & void if we keep falling further & the indices print a new lower low.

Market Quadrant 40/2026 A hard-money environment with stock-specific action. Mostly, IPOs were tradable. Paradoxically, this all-red market is an improvement from the choppy conditions we have been in for quite some time. We are still away from oversold levels, and a sense of panic is still missing. If it falls more, swing traders may get a tradable upswing. ⦿ Bias → Bear From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market, as more than 50% of stocks stay below their 200-day SMA. ⦿ Trend → Downtrend The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative or negative for the past 3 days. Most stocks have consistently remained below their 50-day MAs. ⦿ Swing → Downswing The MBI stays red, and most stocks are trading below their 10-day moving averages. ⦿ Momentum → Negative & worsening Media is the only index with positive & improving momentum. Most of the sectoral indices are having negative & worsening momentum. That's all for this week.

Finally, TradingView displays market breadth for Indian markets. tradingview.com/markets/indi…

I wrote this on 2nd Feb 2024. Sounds like a fairy tale, considering the extreme pessimism our markets are in currently. Then I remember Bruce Springsteen's words: "Well baby, everything dies, that's a fact, But maybe everything that dies someday comes back..."

BLEL intraday trade done with 1% return on PF. Will the intraday community accept me? 😁

TradingView will now charge the creator of an invite-only script $30 per month per user accessing that script. I have 1100 users of the QE Pro script to whom I've given FREE access, but free or paid subscribers don't change anything. TradingView wants its $30/user/month, which in my case equates to $33000 = ₹31,64,789 Per month. 🙈 I have no choice but to revoke access for those 1100 subscribers. The same will be the fate of the paid QE Ultra. Apologies to all.

Sold this IPO breakout. Then it went to new highs. Did I exit too early? 👇