Folio (@folio__watch) header
Folio (@folio__watch) profile picture

2014–present: trading options. Now teaching what the textbooks miss.

Joined April 2021
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AI trade bottomed after the Anth revenue freakout, before the S-1. Money's been flowing back to semis and memory since. Risk is tricky now with FOMC, midterms, and the Anth IPO about to suck capital from speculative AI. Might cap flows to semis/mag7 too.
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Pangea is 4 days old. The numbers are nuts. $108k burned. $398k to creators. $44m volume. 373 coins on 5 chains. All at an $8.5m mcap. 80% of fees buy and burn $JAFqCQSpy5YinrsmixWSMaD7jTn4MytJRkyWvYPnY6ea. No team bag, just constant burns. Creators earn more
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Market's dead but memes always have a game. They barely flinch on a $BTC dump, then rip harder. Against the wave, always. Saw $frong nearly 2x in this trash. $SCHIFFY chart looks clean for a run. My main watch is $JUGGERNAUT. An early RH OG with a Vald cult story
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Everyone's flexing their portfolio withdrawals. Here's my take: target an 8% distribution, but you actually need 1.3x that amount. Real withdrawal is ~6.15%. Then add guardrails. New research > the old 4% rule. Sorry not sorry.
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finally we are benefitting from the main strength of crypto being the last unpumped speculative market in the world
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Monday reminder: you don't need to be perfect. Just consistent. Small steps, repeated, get big results. Just keep showing up
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Weekend markets are just liquidity games for clueless macro traders. Who knew?
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Trying to be Michael Burry is the new meta. Even Michael Burry can't be Michael Burry anymore
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Risk off before a big macro event. It's just degen 101.
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They finally did it. @roundhill just moved $QDTE off those 1256 deep ITM calls.
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damn everyone zags. we zig.
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Wild that most traders credit their success to a "gut feeling" but haven't even tried using AI to analyze their process. Not everything can be quantified, but you gotta check.
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Got totally rekt on leverage last night, inverse balls were tingling. Not me tho, kept my gains.
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The playbook for this run was simple: buy the obvious winners early, compound forever. That's working for a few coins, but it's a trap for most. Crypto is a liquidity rotation game. The early "safe" leaders often lag as money chases risk. No shortcuts
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Keep an eye on $WLD. It's trying to become the identity layer for both humans and AI. Still early, but if it works the TAM is absolutely massive. Heard major US banks are already testing it for video call verification and fighting impersonation.
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More of an equity take than crypto. Know your bags: are they structurally wrecked by higher rates? If not, just ride out the market's daily beta noise. If they are, you better have a rate view. And good luck with that when the long-term driver is politics.
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BTC trading like AI math could break the signature scheme before quantum computers even get here.
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Real estate stocks are at an all-time low vs the S&P 500. We've literally given back the ENTIRE housing bubble gains. The whole run.
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$BTCI vs $XBCI vs $BTC Perfectly shows the difference between an up-only market and a real bear market.
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