Fominov Aleksei

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs. In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other. When retail liquidity dried up and old whales started cashing out, it was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak. It was like a game of Musical Chairs—everyone tried to cash out at once, and those who didn’t ended up stuck with their holdings. But now, the Bitcoin market has become much more diverse. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even govt agencies are considering buying and selling Bitcoin. In the past, profit-taking cycles were triggered when whales cashed out at the peak, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs and a price drop. However, It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi. Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs. Honestly, I still think the market is sluggish while absorbing new liquidity. Most indicators are hanging around the borderline. It doesn’t feel like a clear bullish or bearish market right now. Of course, the recent price action is extremely bullish, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle. Just because I was wrong doesn’t mean on-chain data is useless. On-chain analysts can have different opinions, and back then, many analysts, including @mignoletkr, disagreed with me. Data is just data, and perspectives vary. I apologize for the incorrect prediction. I will strive to provide higher-quality analyses in the future. Thank you.