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NEW: Our 2028 big board just got bigger.
UAW president Shawn Fain earns a spot as Mamdani’s backup plan if AOC doesn’t run, and Thomas Massie makes the board as an outsider longshot after moving to impeach Hegseth. Meanwhile DeSantis, Shapiro, Rubio, and Buttigieg are still jockeying for position.
On this week’s Frontrunner, Emmet and Justin break down who’s surging, who’s falling, and why the Republican field is suddenly wide open.
While interviewing @CoryBooker, @SandbergEmmet’s girlfriend called him. Senator Booker picked up the phone.
2028 Dem primary by gender and education:
🎓 College men: AOC 21%, Pete 18%, Newsom 12%
🎓 College women: Pete 21%, AOC 17%, Newsom 10%
🛠️ Non-college men: AOC 18%, Harris 17%, Pete 16%
🛠️ Non-college women: Harris 23%, Pete 18%, AOC 16%
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
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2028 Democratic primary, white voters:
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 24%
🔵 AOC: 19%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 11%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 7%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 6%
🔵 Andy Beshear: 5%
🔵 JB Pritzker: 3%
🔵 Wes Moore: 2%
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: 2%
🔵 Unsure: 22%
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
2028 Democratic primary, Black voters:
🔵 Kamala Harris: 41%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 13%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 7%
🔵 AOC: 6%
🔵 Wes Moore: 6%
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 5%
🔵 JB Pritzker: 4%
🔵 Andy Beshear: 1%
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: 1%
🔵 Unsure: 17%
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
2028 Democratic primary, Hispanic voters:
🔵 AOC: 28%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 22%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 16%
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 13%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 4%
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: 2%
🔵 Andy Beshear: 1%
🔵 JB Pritzker: 1%
🔵 Unsure: 14%
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
Net favorability among independents:
🟢 Abdul El-Sayed: +10
🟠 AOC: -3
🟠 Democrats in Congress: -14
🟠 Gavin Newsom: -14
🔴 Marco Rubio: -27
🔴 Elon Musk: -40
🔴 JD Vance: -43
⚫️ Donald Trump: -54
⚫️ Republicans in Congress: -61
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
FRONTRUNNER retweeted
NEW: 2028 Democratic primary poll:
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 18.5%
🔵 AOC: 17.9%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 13.6%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 12.1%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 6.4%
🔵 Andy Beshear: 3.6%
🔵 JB Pritzker: 2.8%
🔵 Wes Moore: 2.3%
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: 1.5%
🔵 Unsure: 21.0%
Cygnal | 11/4-11/5
NEW: 2028 Democratic primary poll:
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 18.5%
🔵 AOC: 17.9%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 13.6%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 12.1%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 6.4%
🔵 Andy Beshear: 3.6%
🔵 JB Pritzker: 2.8%
🔵 Wes Moore: 2.3%
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: 1.5%
🔵 Unsure: 21.0%
Cygnal | 11/4-11/5
Who leads the Democratic Party?
🔵 AOC: 8%
🔵 Barack Obama: 6%
🔵 Hakeem Jeffries: 6%
🔵 Chuck Schumer: 4%
🤷 No one/unsure: 41%
Cygnal poll | 11/4-11/5
FRONTRUNNER retweeted
Net favorability among 2026 voters:
🟢 Barack Obama: +23
🟡 Democratic Party: +5
🟡 Democrats in Congress: +4
🟠 MAHA movement: -5
🔴 DSA: -16
🔴 Republican Party: -18
🔴 Republicans in Congress: -23
🔴 Donald Trump: -27
⚫️ MAGA Republicans: -32
Navigator exit poll | 10/28-11/8
Elissa Slotkin is surrounded by press after her speech at What’s Next - fueling speculation about What’s Next for her in 2028.
Josh Shapiro was rocketing up our 2028 Big Board this week after a 22 point win and some behind-the-scenes moves for endorsements.
Now he’s on the Big Board in Denver.
2028 Republican primary:
🔴 JD Vance: 32% (-7 since July)
🔴 Marco Rubio: 27% (+0)
🔴 Ron DeSantis: 13% (+6)
Rasmussen Reports poll | 11/5, 11/8-11/9
Net favorability among 2026 voters:
🟢 Barack Obama: +23
🟡 Democratic Party: +5
🟡 Democrats in Congress: +4
🟠 MAHA movement: -5
🔴 DSA: -16
🔴 Republican Party: -18
🔴 Republicans in Congress: -23
🔴 Donald Trump: -27
⚫️ MAGA Republicans: -32
Navigator exit poll | 10/28-11/8
Thomas Massie is on a revenge bender. After losing his primary, he's moved to impeach fellow Republican Pete Hegseth.
Could the Kentuckian make some serious noise in 2028? We’re moving him up on the big board.
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New: @JakeAuch will address potential 2028era this morning at What’s Next, saying:
“To everyone who will compete in 2028 — which might also be every person in this room — I challenge you to:
Tell us which ideas you’ll stop giving permission to, the ones that don’t work or defy common sense;
Tell us which privileges you’ll confront, even when your donors or allies object.
Tell us which opportunities you’ll promote so that every child can share in the American Promise.
The voters did not tell Democrats that we get it.
They told us that we get a chance.
If we use it to show them a better future, they will help us build it.”
NEW: Former Member of Congress (D-OK) and AI safety advocate Brad Carson likely to run for president.
Sherman's career arc:
2001-2005: Member of Congress
2005-2008: CEO for Cherokee Nation Businesses
2008-2010: Intelligence Officer for the US Navy
2010-2011: Professor at University of Tulsa
2011-2016: Obama administration
2017-2021: Lecturer at UVA
2021-2025: President at UTulsa
2024-Present: @americans4ri
2026/27: Presidential candidate?
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