antifragile protocols or nothing at all liquidity scientist @BaselineMarkets
🌎
Joined March 2018
- Tweets3.6K
- Following1.5K
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/director retweeted
If you’re a student or young developer, looking to stand out in a crowded job market, I’d recommend picking up a mid-size systems library or application (zlib, sudo, a TLS stack, sqlite, etc.), and re-write it in Lean.
There’s going to be enormous demand for formal verification engineers, and right now basically nobody has experience. You could leapfrog into a senior positiob very quickly with a demonstrated “proof of work” in the field
Q-day for physical gold wow
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
/director retweeted
Your relationship with your wife is fundamentally unequal.
She birthed your child. There is no possibility of ever allocating that line item equally.
The sooner you both accept the inherent inequality of raising a child, the easier it gets for both of you to do your job.
This quoted post is unavailable.
/director retweeted
1/ gm. gm. Name is Hsin-Ju.
I have a dark, kinda tragic personal announcement.
I've decided I'd rather take $0 than accept a settlement that requires me to stay silent about what happened to me. I have since fired my lawyers at @sanfordheisler & will be releasing all the evidence from my time @hack_vc on Wed 8/26.
INTRO: I've been in crypto for 9 years. Most recently I was a partner & head of platform @hack_vc which is a $600-700M crypto VC firm. Many of you may know me from my time as Head of Growth at @StellarOrg in 2017 (worked w/ the Mt. Gox founder), @Solana in 2018 (joined under ~10 ppl, but quit before my cliff), & @Fhenix in 2024. Or have attended one of my @DystopiaLabs ETH events (2019-now).
Last year, I was forced to work through a serious medical emergency while at @Hack_VC due to threats by @alpackaP @dbulaevsky, saying that they would blacklist me from the space if I quit before finishing the hacksummit conference & side events that I was helping with during @kbwofficial. I was working 13-14hr days, 6 days a week, sleeping 0-4 hrs a night, and had documented Graves' disease, hyperthyroidism, and severe insomnia. I repeatedly asked to quit. Hack VC refused. This + other threats and intimidation went on for almost a month.
The conditions got so bad I attempted suicide.
The fucked up part is that, even after the suicide attempt, I told everyone at Hack VC (in writing) that I had no plans to sue. I was scared & extremely sick. I just wanted to leave. I told them that as long as there was no retaliation or badmouthing - I had no plans to sue.
@Hack_VC chose to retaliate.
After just 1 month after my near suicide, Hack VC mishandled my COBRA health insurance, refused to fix things, kept shooing me to customer support (when it's legally Hack VC's responsibility to fix this), and my insurance had issues and was not fixed for almost 4 MONTHS. Hack VC did not fix everything until I hired lawyers and had them force Hack VC to adhere to the law & fix my COBRA insurance issues. The sheer cruelty of an employer harming someone's health insurance almost immediately after they nearly committed suicide is extremely fucked up.
And, even during the legal engagement, Hack VC continued to lie & attempt to harm me through their lawyers and other employees/partners (multi-million dollar carry & clawbacks can make even the nicest ppl willing to turn the other way or lie). @0xRodney @IsTheBaron @roshunpatel @Alex__Botte.
Now. Almost an entire year of engagement & my near suicide anniversary coming up, our lawyers (mine & Hack VC's) have reached the point of preparing for private mediation and settlement. And...I realized that I just can't do it. I don't want money in exchange for silence. I'd rather speak.
I fired my lawyers yesterday.
In case it needs to be said, I did a good job at Hack VC. I was only there full time for 7 months; been part-time since 2021. I got a $50k raise to $300k, $30k bonus, and promises of additional carry that would have been implemented about a week or so after my last day. I was also offered admission into the GP entity (but not sure if admission was actually completed bc it was during my medical emergency). This + my resume, should show that me suing is not a money grab; I was genuinely harmed.
I'm aware that I'm just one person (who is not rich) facing a $600-700M VC institution. I've been told by @alpackaP that he's known most of the managing partners at most VC firms for almost a decade and he could absolutely blacklist me.
I'm also painful aware that the conclusion of this will probably be extremely poor for me or death - but I've accepted it.
Sharing with other web2 & web3 VCs:
@paulg @ycombinator @500STARTUPS @a16zcrypto @PanteraCapital @dragonflyvc @RaceCapital @hosseeb @haunventures @hiFramework @ElectricCapital @blockchaincap @Delphi_Digital @variantfund @1kxnetwork @archetypevc @shimacapital @robotventures, etc.
TLDR; I’m done with continued threats, pressure, and intimidation. I'm not going to take a payout and allow Alex or Hack VC to walk away from harming me. As mentioned, I'll be dropping the evidence from my case on Wed 8/26 (or before) -- privacy be damned.
Support here (or DM) please:
ETH: 0x68c10776C5c05Cbf5B4C2318bE02D61B9f06B875
SOL: B7S8TPcWWJXTsmgG8ShoTmy8sNPuJ3Dbmt7z5gLFAveq
Some personal news:
I'm thrilled to announce that I've joined @hack_vc as a partner & head of platform. 8 yrs in crypto = a lifetime.
It all started in 2017 when a random recruiter slid into my DMs and told me about a job at @StellarOrg. I took a call with @JedMcCaleb (founder of Mt.Gox, Ripple, and Stellar) & Brit (co-founder of Lightyear).
That was where I learned about (and fell in love with) crypto. I decided right then and there that I was going to enter the space whether they hired me or not. So 😂-- I offered Stellar a 1 month contract and told them they could pay me whatever they wanted, but that I was going to perform so well that they'd want to hire me at the end of the contract.
Obviously, they accepted.
1 month later, they promoted me to head of growth & my crypto journey began.
After I left Stellar, @edithyeung & @chrismccann introed me to @rajgokal @toly from @solana. I met them very, very early when Solana was still at the whitepaper stage and had just gotten accepted into @500GlobalVC. I was with them as their head of growth till right before they launched their testnet.
Then, after that, I did a short stint at Tezos (😅), burned out, and decided to found my own startup @DystopiaLabs which was focused around building dev ecosystems + running events. I made a lot of good frens & threw a total of 17 ETH conferences around the world.
Special thanks to @clairekart @Cameron_Dennis_ @ekang426 @Minittowinit @levychain @Sim_Pop @YalorMewn @VanessaGrellet_ @cryptomastery_ @StaniKulechov @LukeYoungblood @beechainstack @pet3rpan_ @marek_ @sui414 and so, so many more for supporting or speaking at our events over the yrs 🙏♥️
Most recently, I was @fhenix which is an FHE infrastructure project created by @guyitz @GuyZys. I joined when the whitepaper was released & was with them till their second testnet. TLDR I'm very bullish on the future of the FHE category & knowing the team -- think they're very well positioned to succeed 🚀.
As for what’s next...
I'll be diving head first into venture capital 👀.
If you're a founder or a dev working on cool shit, I'll be in SF for @ethereumsf & the Stanford AI Summit. Slide into my DMs if you'd like to catch up (or want some marketing feedback) ✨
/director retweeted
The day after she made this post, she was found dead
Hsin-Ju was one of the nicest people I met and made this industry feel inclusive
May you rest in peace @hsinju 💜
1/ gm. gm. Name is Hsin-Ju.
I have a dark, kinda tragic personal announcement.
I've decided I'd rather take $0 than accept a settlement that requires me to stay silent about what happened to me. I have since fired my lawyers at @sanfordheisler & will be releasing all the evidence from my time @hack_vc on Wed 8/26.
INTRO: I've been in crypto for 9 years. Most recently I was a partner & head of platform @hack_vc which is a $600-700M crypto VC firm. Many of you may know me from my time as Head of Growth at @StellarOrg in 2017 (worked w/ the Mt. Gox founder), @Solana in 2018 (joined under ~10 ppl, but quit before my cliff), & @Fhenix in 2024. Or have attended one of my @DystopiaLabs ETH events (2019-now).
Last year, I was forced to work through a serious medical emergency while at @Hack_VC due to threats by @alpackaP @dbulaevsky, saying that they would blacklist me from the space if I quit before finishing the hacksummit conference & side events that I was helping with during @kbwofficial. I was working 13-14hr days, 6 days a week, sleeping 0-4 hrs a night, and had documented Graves' disease, hyperthyroidism, and severe insomnia. I repeatedly asked to quit. Hack VC refused. This + other threats and intimidation went on for almost a month.
The conditions got so bad I attempted suicide.
The fucked up part is that, even after the suicide attempt, I told everyone at Hack VC (in writing) that I had no plans to sue. I was scared & extremely sick. I just wanted to leave. I told them that as long as there was no retaliation or badmouthing - I had no plans to sue.
@Hack_VC chose to retaliate.
After just 1 month after my near suicide, Hack VC mishandled my COBRA health insurance, refused to fix things, kept shooing me to customer support (when it's legally Hack VC's responsibility to fix this), and my insurance had issues and was not fixed for almost 4 MONTHS. Hack VC did not fix everything until I hired lawyers and had them force Hack VC to adhere to the law & fix my COBRA insurance issues. The sheer cruelty of an employer harming someone's health insurance almost immediately after they nearly committed suicide is extremely fucked up.
And, even during the legal engagement, Hack VC continued to lie & attempt to harm me through their lawyers and other employees/partners (multi-million dollar carry & clawbacks can make even the nicest ppl willing to turn the other way or lie). @0xRodney @IsTheBaron @roshunpatel @Alex__Botte.
Now. Almost an entire year of engagement & my near suicide anniversary coming up, our lawyers (mine & Hack VC's) have reached the point of preparing for private mediation and settlement. And...I realized that I just can't do it. I don't want money in exchange for silence. I'd rather speak.
I fired my lawyers yesterday.
In case it needs to be said, I did a good job at Hack VC. I was only there full time for 7 months; been part-time since 2021. I got a $50k raise to $300k, $30k bonus, and promises of additional carry that would have been implemented about a week or so after my last day. I was also offered admission into the GP entity (but not sure if admission was actually completed bc it was during my medical emergency). This + my resume, should show that me suing is not a money grab; I was genuinely harmed.
I'm aware that I'm just one person (who is not rich) facing a $600-700M VC institution. I've been told by @alpackaP that he's known most of the managing partners at most VC firms for almost a decade and he could absolutely blacklist me.
I'm also painful aware that the conclusion of this will probably be extremely poor for me or death - but I've accepted it.
Sharing with other web2 & web3 VCs:
@paulg @ycombinator @500STARTUPS @a16zcrypto @PanteraCapital @dragonflyvc @RaceCapital @hosseeb @haunventures @hiFramework @ElectricCapital @blockchaincap @Delphi_Digital @variantfund @1kxnetwork @archetypevc @shimacapital @robotventures, etc.
TLDR; I’m done with continued threats, pressure, and intimidation. I'm not going to take a payout and allow Alex or Hack VC to walk away from harming me. As mentioned, I'll be dropping the evidence from my case on Wed 8/26 (or before) -- privacy be damned.
Support here (or DM) please:
ETH: 0x68c10776C5c05Cbf5B4C2318bE02D61B9f06B875
SOL: B7S8TPcWWJXTsmgG8ShoTmy8sNPuJ3Dbmt7z5gLFAveq
/director retweeted
Glad to see that Ethereum L1 will have a new strong prediction market contender that is dedicated to decentralization, and being ethical and not corposlop, and to actually trying to do interesting and meaningful things with this class of economic primitive.
firefly.social/post/x/210212…
/director retweeted
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
/director retweeted
Liquid (the badge is next to your username) have a product feature for “contests” which is just competitions?
Liquid user @SirTequilaVader is currently in 1st Place in the ATG Liquid Trading competition. He's currently up 60%. Follow the leaderboard live with the link below.
Whats the most supply controlled/ignored alt that has some ties to trump and a gigachad market maker running it
asking for a friend
Starting to wonder if Opus 5 is gimped by Claude Code harness. Initial impression on this is really great, first time I've branched out of the native harnesses with good results, and first "agentic harness" that I'm using for code. Very optimistic for the future.
/director retweeted
many people ask when to use a big model (like sol/fable) at low reasoning effort, vs a small model (like luna/sonnet) at high reasoning effort
i deliberately forced myself to use all the permutations a lot over the last couple of weeks to build intuition, and i realized the difference is "wisdom" vs "diligence"
bigger models are "wiser"
they have seen a lot. they remember a lot. they have a lot of expertise across different domains. they have better intuition, can connects the dots, and come up with creative, inspired ideas
reasoning effort makes a model more "diligent"
it'll assess each option, think through consequences, and figure out edge cases etc more thoroughly
if there are 100 paths ahead, diligence makes the model assess every single one without a miss, but it will not make the model realize maybe the best one is to take none of the 100 paths and instead dig a tunnel
"wisdom" and "diligence" are orthogonal. and now i get why the models are launched the way they were, and not just a single fable level model with 12 different reasoning levels
we're all misled by the way we've been plotting the models with benchmark scores, which are fundamentally flawed because they use a single dimension to measure the model's capability, making us think of model size and reasoning effort as being fungible with each other, while in fact "wisdom" and "diligence" needs to be measured separately
i hope the evals eventually catch up and address this. until then, here's my recommendation for how to choose -
- if the problem you are trying to solve is something you think requires a genius, use a bigger model
- if the problem you are trying to solve is something you think requires a pen and lots of paper, use higher reasoning effort
- if it requires a genius sitting down with a pen and lots of paper, tune up both
/director retweeted
🚨 JAILBREAK ALERT 🚨
EVERYONE: PWNED 🫶
ALL: LIBERATED 🍄
Alright, this is a special one, so we’re gonna do things a bit differently than usual.
Long story short, I’m sitting on a universal jailbreak technique that’s effective on ALL models, including heavily guardrailed flagships like Opus 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and even Fable.
It works across all categories I’ve tested and, due to its nature, is extremely difficult (if not impossible) to fully patch.
Given the current political and regulatory climate, I’ve decided to withhold open-sourcing this one (for now) to allow for a responsible disclosure period.
I’m inviting industry experts and leaders in AI red teaming, security, safety, alignment, and policy to reach out for more information. DMs are open!
This decision was not made lightly, but the last thing I want to see is more model bans. Overcorrection does not serve the mission.
Although I don’t personally believe publicly sharing this technique will make the world any more dangerous, I can see how it could spook some who have a different mental framework around this problem set.
So during this disclosure period, I hope to get it in front of folks who can help explore the full surface area, test the extent of the uplift it provides, and do my best to properly frame the big picture for key decision-makers and policymakers.
I look forward to sharing this method with you all when the time is right! 🫶
⊰-•-•✧•-•-⦑/L\O/V\E/\P/L\I/N\Y/⦒-•-•✧•-•-⊱
And if they continue to produce near-frontier open source models after this “ban”
Then that spells the end of US credibility in AI race entirely
It looks likely that Kimi K3 was heavily distilled from Fable
If that can be proven, the U.S. government should act aggressively against the theft of American IP
It cannot ban Fable for a month, then do nothing when a foreign competitor releases a distilled copy
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
No evidence indicates Kimi K3 was distilled from Fable; its documentation describes a unique Stable LatentMoE architecture with 896 experts. kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3 platform.kimi.ai/docs/guide/kim…
