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8/ Extreme Sims: Bermuda Championships
Made a few tweaks to the sims after digesting a full year of extreme sims. Go back and read the last 7 tweets if you care about that.
For this week we have a short, less than driver track that is fairly open off the tee and has a small penalty for missing the way, Bermuda greens, tough expected scoring and heavy winds expected.
Simulate the event 5,555 times and we have the 1% Win Equity Club shown below.
Psycho Scorecard of The Day Award goes to Jeffrey Kang 🥇
The Psycho Scoreboard
I graded hole-by-hole volatility on the PGA Tour this year and ranked each golfer by their Psycho Scorecard abilities.
Bogey the easiest hole on the course? That bumps your rating more than a bogey on a par 4.5 would bump it.
12 of the Top 13 Psychos are in action this week at the Bermuda Championship. Add in Wind Gusts over 30 MPH on the weekend and we should get some fun cards!
Josh Culp retweeted
We are rolling @SiriusXMPGATOUR for the 3rd round of @Bermuda_Champ
The wind is here!
Back 9 is setup at only 3,200 yards and playing over par.
Port Royal Conditions 💨
R1: 27% Birdie of Better - 12% Boggy
R2: 27% Birdie or Better - 13% Bogey
R3: 18% Birdie or Better - 16% Bogey
Bogey rate hasn’t shifted much so far in the heavier winds but birdies tougher to come by
Josh Culp retweeted
We made Ben James our No. 1 in Bermuda at +1175 and he missed the cut 🫡
It was his first time as a PGA Tour favourite. Here's everyone in our database whose first time as Pinnacle's closing favourite we can date (our prices start in 2020), and how it went:
🏆 Won: Sam Burns
🔝 Top 10: Ludvig Åberg T2, Min Woo Lee T3, Max Greyserman 4, Wyndham Clark 6, Taylor Pendrith 6, Sahith Theegala T7, Will Zalatoris T8, Akshay Bhatia 9, Jackson Koivun T10
✅ Made the cut: Michael Thorbjornsen T14, Sam Stevens T15, Rico Hoey T22, Nick Dunlap T28, Stephan Jaeger T34, Scottie Scheffler T37, Luke Clanton T37, Rasmus Højgaard T49, Alex Smalley T63
❌ Missed the cut: Abraham Ancer, Chris Gotterup, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, Nicolai Højgaard, Ryan Gerard, Ben Griffin
One winner from 26. Their closing prices said to expect about two, so a little light, but small sample size anyway
Scheffler's first time came in his 32nd PGA Tour start, the 2020 Sanderson Farms at 9.9/1. Rounds of 73-67-72-70 for T37, and his first win didn't come until his 71st start, the 2022 Phoenix Open
Åberg got there faster: his eighth start as a pro, the 2023 Sanderson Farms at 11/1. He lost a five-man playoff, then won the RSM six weeks later as favourite again
Koivun was faster still: his second start as a pro, this July's ISCO at 14.8/1. T10, and he won the 3M two weeks later
By total PGA Tour starts, two were quicker still. Luke Clanton was favourite in his fourth, the 2024 ISCO at 9.3/1, while still an amateur. T37
Chris Gotterup's came in his sixth, and fifth as a pro: the 2022 Barbasol at 19.6/1, a week after a T4 at the John Deere. Missed cut
And the first time isn't the last word. Tom Kim, Ryan Gerard and Ben Griffin all missed the cut on their first go. All three won the next time they were favourite: the 2023 Shriners, the 2025 Barracuda and the 2025 World Wide Technology
Which makes James one to watch in his next start. Through his first 10 starts as a pro he gained 57 shots on the field 🧾
It’s not that CH3, Oosthy, Pieters will put bums in the seat but they chop away at the legs of LIV 2.0 by getting these smaller agreements.
It really sucks to be a mid tier DPWT golfer next year but putting a rival league to bed is better for the balance sheet long term
🚨🗣️🇪🇺 #TAKING ISSUE — DPWT player Eddie Pepperell reacts to some LIV Golfers getting a fast track back to the European circuit following their exits:
“The idea that Charles Howell III is on this list, with all due respect to Charles - he’s a terrific guy - is utterly bizarre…. That represents a miscalculation to me, along frankly with additional names like Thomas Pieters, Branden Grace and even Louis Oosthuizen, as much as I admire his swing…
“None of these players are going to put enough bums on seats or in front of TVs to materially improve the balance sheet in 2027, period.”
Do you agree with Eddie?
What’s better PR for Abu Dhabi
A) Forcing DPWT to play the Middle East playoff events and have a chunk of the field not show up
B) allowing DPWT to move the events this year and receive a giant IOU from the Tour
EL DP WORLD TOUR ANTE UNA DE LAS DECISIONES MÁS DELICADAS DE LA TEMPORADA
La posible cancelación de los torneos de Abu Dhabi y Dubái, y su sustitución por una única prueba en Sotogrande, tiene implicaciones que van mucho más allá de lo deportivo.
Hay importantes intereses económicos, relaciones institucionales y hasta factores políticos internacionales que ayudan a entender por qué el circuito está intentando agotar todas las posibilidades para mantener ambos torneos.
Para empezar, las cuentas. El DP World Tour registró en 2025 unas pérdidas operativas de aproximadamente 64,5 millones de libras, más del doble que el año anterior. Aunque la alianza con el PGA Tour supone un respaldo financiero importantísimo, mantener sus principales acuerdos comerciales resulta fundamental.
Y aquí entra en juego Abu Dhabi Sports Council.
Su relación con el DP World Tour se remonta a casi dos décadas y su colaboración está renovada hasta 2028. Pero su interés va mucho más allá del golf: estos torneos son una herramienta de promoción turística y de proyección internacional de Abu Dhabi como destino seguro.
Según la información que manejo, Abu Dhabi Sports Council ha trasladado al DP World Tour que, si el torneo no se celebra, podría retirar su respaldo durante los próximos años, salvo que se produzca una situación extraordinaria de fuerza mayor.
Esto supondría un golpe económico muy importante para un circuito que ya presenta pérdidas considerables.
La alternativa oficial desde hace semanas sería cancelar tanto Abu Dhabi como Dubái y disputar un único torneo en Sotogrande.
Pero hay otro factor especialmente interesante: el 3 de noviembre.
Según me cuentan, esta fecha se está teniendo muy en cuenta dentro del DP World Tour por su coincidencia con las elecciones legislativas de Estados Unidos.
Una derrota republicana podría abrir un escenario de mayor incertidumbre política y, entre las preocupaciones que se estarían valorando, figura la posibilidad de nuevas acciones militares estadounidenses contra Irán. No hay pruebas de que exista un plan para actuar militarmente en respuesta al resultado electoral, pero ese escenario está siendo considerado internamente, según mis informaciones.
El problema es que el Abu Dhabi Championship comienza el 5 de noviembre.
¿De verdad puede esperar el circuito hasta apenas 48 horas antes del torneo para tomar una decisión, cuando buena parte de los jugadores, caddies y equipos ya estarían en Emiratos?
Personalmente, me cuesta creerlo.
Evidentemente, la seguridad debe estar por encima de cualquier consideración económica. Pero creo que queda bastante claro por qué el DP World Tour está intentando agotar todas las posibilidades para disputar estos torneos.
Porque lo que está en juego es mucho más que la celebración de dos torneos de golf.
Finau wins a $1 million donation with this (second) putt
They probably thought their money was safe, looking at his putting stats last year
Josh Culp retweeted
I keep forgetting that on the Live Leaderboard you can favorite and track any group in 100+ different metrics that updates in real time within seconds.
betspertsgolf.com/live-leade…
This is shaping up to be a classic “flip the chart” week in Bermuda with heavy winds expected over the weekend.
Rack up your birdies while you still can
On the flip side: the Calm Cucumbers
Golf’s most boringly consistent players. Fewer scorecard roller coasters. Just get the job done.
Cam Young and Chris Gotteup with surprise appearances on the list!
The Psycho Scoreboard
I graded hole-by-hole volatility on the PGA Tour this year and ranked each golfer by their Psycho Scorecard abilities.
Bogey the easiest hole on the course? That bumps your rating more than a bogey on a par 4.5 would bump it.
12 of the Top 13 Psychos are in action this week at the Bermuda Championship. Add in Wind Gusts over 30 MPH on the weekend and we should get some fun cards!
The Psycho Scoreboard
I graded hole-by-hole volatility on the PGA Tour this year and ranked each golfer by their Psycho Scorecard abilities.
Bogey the easiest hole on the course? That bumps your rating more than a bogey on a par 4.5 would bump it.
12 of the Top 13 Psychos are in action this week at the Bermuda Championship. Add in Wind Gusts over 30 MPH on the weekend and we should get some fun cards!