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Trying out threads too.
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This makes no sense because The Punisher kills pedophiles, not befriend and help them.
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A few hours after most of us who live on the East Coast went to bed last night, the people of Israel were waking up and already heading to the polls, which opened there at 7am local time (six hours ahead of us).
This is the first Israeli legislative election since 2022, which, of course, makes it the first since the horrific attacks carried out by the antisemitic terrorist group Hamas on Oct. 7th, 2023.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a strong challenge to his leadership, and there’s a significant chance his third tenure at the helm could soon be over depending on how today’s vote goes.
I’ve not been shy about my disgust for Mr. Netanyahu, whom I firmly believe is one of the most irresponsible, dangerous, and immoral world leaders of the 21st century.
The crimes he has committed against the people of Israel, Palestinian civilians, the rest of the Middle East, the United States, and the world generally should have all reasonable adults, regardless of political persuasion, demanding he be tossed behind bars.
But instead of charting out what I think should happen in an ideal world, I feel it would be more useful to give a rundown of how and when we may or may not know if Mr. Netanyahu will remain in power or be ousted from the office he has so shamelessly abused.
Israel has a parliamentary body called the Knesset. It’s like our House of Representatives, except it’s the only political body in Israel. They don’t have a lower and upper chamber. It’s just the one chamber.
The Knesset has 120 seats, and each one will be up for grabs today. There are technically 36 political parties vying for seats in the Knesset but only about a dozen have a realistic chance of winning seats.
There’s an additional layer of difficulty here because every political party must achieve at least 3.25 percent of the nationwide vote (about four seats) in order to have seats in the Knesset. Don’t reach that percentage? Then no seats for your party.
Unlike U.S. elections, with just our two major parties, the Knesset only works with a coalition government — or an alliance of various parties adding up to a majority of seats.
To underscore this point, Mr. Netanyahu’s political party—Likud—has never won more than 30 percent of the nationwide vote under his leadership. This may seem unimpressive at first glance, but it speaks to how the Israeli government has always run on different parties entering into coalition alliances in order to govern.
There are some technical aspects I could get into, but let’s keep it simple: the magic number is 61 — that’s how many seats are needed for a coalition government. If the political parties opposing Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc want to oust him, their coalition need to win at least 61 seats.
Here’s the frustrating thing: it is almost certain we will not know tonight if Mr. Netanyahu shall remain in power. In fact, we may not know this week. And there’s a chance the results will not yield a coalition government, and thus, another legislative election will be held as many as seven months from now.
Let’s walk through it.
The polls will close in Israel at 4pm ET (10pm there). A few moments later, the various Israeli news outlets will release their exit polling showing estimates for how many seats each party won and thus, the earliest guesses for which coalition won.
Interestingly, each of the past three Israeli legislative elections had exit polls that were off by a few seats from the final results. In 2022, they underestimated Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition by a few seats, but in 2021 and 2020, they overestimated his coalition by a few seats.
So, when the exit polls do pop up just after 4pm ET, take them with a grain of salt, especially if they show Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition at around 61 or 62 seats — or the reverse with the opposition leading. Unless it’s clear that an expected coalition could have 65 or more seats (unlikely), you can safely disregard the exit polls.
By tomorrow (Oct. 28th), we’ll have substantial preliminary results, and by Friday (Oct. 30th), we’ll likely have the final vote tally, which is to say we’ll then know how many seats each party won.
Then the process moves to confirming a coalition. It may work out that an expected coalition is able to quickly cobble together 61 seats for a working majority, but it’s more likely that there will be several more days—perhaps even weeks—of various parties hashing out details to form a coalition government.
In 2022, the results were pretty clear within two days. In 2021, a confirmed coalition wasn’t reached until nine weeks after the election. In 2020, it took about two months, including a week for the Israeli Supreme Court to approve an unprecedented power-sharing agreement.
So, what happens if a coalition can’t be reached?
Well, the President of Israel (a mostly ceremonial head of state) will task a member of the Knesset with the responsibility of forming a governing coalition within 28 days, and that Knesset member has the option of requesting a two-week extension.
If that Knesset member fails in the task, the President can assign another Knesset member to give it a try within 28 days.
Leaving out some technical aspects here, if that member also fails, the whole Knesset then has 21 days to request that the President assign a particular member to make an attempt at forming a governing coalition, which must be answered within two days, and upon approval, that member then has 14 days to try.
If after all this a governing coalition still cannot be reached, another election will be scheduled within 90 days of the President announcing a coalition cannot be formed based on the election results.
Thus, it is possible we could be doing all of this again seven months from now.
By the way, next time your friend or colleague or insufferable in-law talks up parliamentary systems as a solution to their understandable frustration with our two-party system, remind them that having numerous parties does not mean efficiency in governing.
So, that’s all to say: get comfortable, grab a drink, and smoke ‘em if you got ‘em. This could take a while.
Okay, but regardless of all the procedural stuff, which way are the political winds blowing in Israel today?
Short answer: it’s unclear.
Longer answer: Mr. Netanyahu remains the rock solid favorite of the more rightwing coalition, and despite all of his scandals and controversies, his party Likud and their coalition partners remain neck-and-neck in polling with the opposition coalition.
Anyone claiming certainty of what the results will be is full of shit. There’s really not much difference in likelihood between a scenario in which Mr. Netanyahu survives with a solid coalition versus losing to a solid opposition coalition versus this all wounding up with another election next summer.
No one truly knows. Anything could happen.
But here’s one substantial thing that gives me hope: one of the biggest stories coming out of this election are the estimated 100,000+ Israeli voters living overseas who have flown back specifically to vote in this election, the vast majority of them—rightwing, leftwing, and centrist—who oppose Mr. Netanyahu.
In a nation that has seen an average of about 4.62 million participating voters over the past three legislative elections, a bloc of 100k+ mostly anti-Netanyahu Israelis could wound up making the difference. Even if it works out to only a few seats, that could prove enough to defeat Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition.
Early this morning, I spoke to my friend Hadar Susskind—President and CEO of the peace organization New Jewish Narrative—who is one of those overseas voters that made the trip to cast a ballot. I asked him what he hoped would be accomplished by the time he boarded a plane back to the United States.
“When I fly back to the US I hope to be leaving an Israel that has recommitted to its founding values of democracy and equality,” he replied. “Neither has ever been anywhere near perfect, but Israel will need them both to move towards a better future.”
Beautifully said.
On a personal note, I’m sending love and encouragement to the people of Israel in closing the chapter on Mr. Netanyahu. Enough is enough.
Let’s all hope reason wins the day.
----
Link to full essay available here for easier sharing: charlotteclymer.substack.com…
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Yeah @Riley_Gaines_, you're doing a great job protecting women!
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Replying to @atrupar
trump: "He's not smart at all"
Also trump: Most people don't know there's a B in dumb. And they don't know what 'incumbent' means. And there were airports in the Revolutionary War. And...
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Double blue steel! This is a gentleman of the first order. Having a lot of fun being a pain in his neck on this picture! #Mongoose
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Gas prices are “temporarily” high, says the president.
That’s because Republicans are temporarily in power.
Vote.
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"I don’t give a damn. We’re making a freaking fortune."
There is no slogan more fitting for this White House.
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REMINDER: Since @CAGovernor Gavin Newsom took office:
- homicide is down 20%
- robbery is down 31%
- property crime is down 24%
- motor vehicle theft is down 19%
- violent crime is down 3%
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I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.
I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.
We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.
It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.
Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.
287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.
We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.
Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.
A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.
And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.
People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.
So who did we give it to?
An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.
She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.
The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.
Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.
It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.
But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.
That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.
We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.
He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.
Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
I look forward to Katie Zacharia serving as special press secretary at the Shield of the Americas with all the other disgraced trump officials.
Breaking News: President Trump’s new press secretary, Katie Zacharia, was fired after less than a week on the job, according to people familiar with the matter. nyti.ms/4yuECpZ
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Please, spread far and wide… thank you!
🚨At Trump’s Youngstown, Ohio rally, a woman wearing a “Release the Epstein Files” shirt was punched in the face, shoved, and had her hair pulled by attendees before police removed her. The men who assaulted her walked free. Russell Dickert posted on Facebook that he, friend Gary, and Gary’s son Clint “subdued her and threw her to the concrete” until police arrived, after she allegedly called Trump a “fascist.”
Reporting also suggests her heckling was Epstein files related. Dickert’s post was later made private or deleted.
Video shows the assault while the crowd chanted “USA”; the men stayed and high-fived eachother after the assault. Trump then called her a “paid protester,” “scum,” and a “fat guy” who needed a diet.



































